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Canadian Banks/HCG.TO: Buy High, Sell Low; What Passes as Prudent Capital Allocation and Risk Management in the...

November 19th, 2019

“I think it's -- the work that's being done in our underwriting team to accurately price for risk. There's a lot of work that's going into the evaluation of business for self...

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RY: The Song Remains the Same for 3Q19 – Reckless Risk Management and IFRS-9 Accounting Driven Earnings Gains

August 22nd, 2019

“And so I think each quarter, I would just continue to reiterate from the guidance I provided previously is that the baseline here is that our reserves -- Stage 1 and 2 reserves will grow in line with...

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Canadian Banks: Earnings Season Was a Disappointment, It Could Have and Should Have Been Much Worse; Take a Gander at...

June 6th, 2019

Heading into earnings season for the Big 6 Canadian banks, we were almost certain that a great deal of the discussion on the analyst conference calls would be centered around loan performance in...

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Where's the Bid? A New, More Troubling Era In Canadian Housing

April 10th, 2019

Over the past few weeks, we conducted a survey of more than 250 real estate agents across Canada. Click on the link below to view our presentation which outlines our research on the Canadian housing market at a high level and the critical findings from our...

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CM.TO/NA.TO/RY.TO: Bank EPS as Fiction – The Great “Remeasurement” Game Juiced EPS in 2018; Don’t Expect an...

January 17th, 2019

“In the case of the IFRS 9 guidance on performing, there's a lot of assumptions that go into what falls into the performing and it could be anything from your assessment of volatility to...

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CM.TO/RY.TO: The Big Banks Finally Acknowledge That We’ve Entered Phase 1 of Phase 1

May 24th, 2018

“So the original 10% was related to what we thought or anticipated the B-20 impact would be. So that was on that part of the business. When we take a look at the second half ,we continue to see that there will be origination...

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Canadian Housing: Reflexivity Cuts Both Ways, Negative Feedback Loops Have Started to Emerge

March 29th, 2018

We hope you will consider this report for your weekend reading list. Over the past few weeks we surveyed more than 300 real estate agents in Canada. The attached presentation outlines the feedback we received from those agents...

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CM.TO/RY.TO: “You Come at the King(s), You Best Not Miss”; The Credit Cycle is Here - Time to get Short

November 28th, 2017

The gravity of this statement from The Wire’s Omar Little is not lost on us. Time and time again in the two and half years that we have been following the Canadian housing market investors have suggested to...

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Current Ideas

AYI

SHORT

$79

OSTK

LONG

$39

BIG

SHORT

$28

CECO

SELL/SHORT

$8

TREX

SHORT

$36

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

ARC

LONG

$5.50

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

RY

SELL/SHORT

$70

CM

SELL/SHORT

$76

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR