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Recent Reports

Where's the Bid? A New, More Troubling Era In Canadian Housing

April 10th, 2019

Over the past few weeks, we conducted a survey of more than 250 real estate agents across Canada. Click on the link below to view our presentation which outlines our research on the Canadian housing market at a high level and the critical findings from our...

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AYI: A Question of Quality as Management Simply Makes It Up as They Go Along

April 3rd, 2019

Well, let’s chalk today’s price action to yet another example of the difficulties of predicting near term gyrations in any given stock.  Even with PERFECT information, we would not have predicted that AYI shares would rally 9%...

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TREX: A Building Products Manufacturer with 40%+ Gross Margins Facing Rising Competition and Product Commoditization,...

March 28th, 2019

“Most decking contractors I know go for the cheapest brand. “ Regional Decking Products Distributor A few years ago, we introduced Acuity Brands as a short idea. At that time,...

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TRUP: The Pets Best Deal Could Mean Evisceration of “Other Revenues”; Stat Statements Suggest Rising Loss Rates...

March 7th, 2019

Well that was unexpected.  TRUP shares traded off more than (-12%) today in response to the news that Synchrony acquired Pets Best, a leading pet insurance agency with more than 125,000 policies...

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CM.TO: CIBC Breaks Ranks, Sort Of. The “Stage” Is Set for Increased Provisions Going Forward

February 28th, 2019

“As you know, what drives our provisioning for our performing loans really has to do with the changes that we make to scenarios and to our economic outlook. So it really depends, sort of, quarter-to-quarter how our...

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RLGY: Under Siege on All Sides with Consumer Brands in Decline, Restructuring Might Be the Only Viable Outcome

February 27th, 2019

“At least given where we are now and where we think the biggest leverage is to change our company's operating performance, we do believe it is focused on the agent. And so you're likely to see us...

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Z/ZG: Things You Didn’t Hear on the Conf. Call – The iBuyer Biz as “Table Stakes”, the Keller Williams Threat,...

February 22nd, 2019

“I still think that the target model that we've laid out, dating all the way back to the IPO, and again, at the Investor Day a couple of weeks ago, is the right margin framework for the...

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HCG.TO: With NIM Compression and Impaired Loans Up 65%+ YOY, HCG Played the IFRS-9 Remeasurement Game to Boost Earnings

February 22nd, 2019

“….right now, some of those predictive models are saying that there is going to be a more benign economic environment in the future, which would probably then lead to models to come up...

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TRUP: Management Continues to Tell Us All We Need to Know About the Structural Flaws of the Business in Their Own...

February 14th, 2019

Against our better judgement, we actually listened to the TRUP 4Q18 earnings conference call live.  Typically, the combination of management’s flowing discussion of its outlandish and...

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CM.TO/NA.TO/RY.TO: Bank EPS as Fiction – The Great “Remeasurement” Game Juiced EPS in 2018; Don’t Expect an...

January 17th, 2019

“In the case of the IFRS 9 guidance on performing, there's a lot of assumptions that go into what falls into the performing and it could be anything from your assessment of volatility to...

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AYI: 4Q18 Lighting Agent Survey - List Price Increases Have Not Been a Cure All for the Lighting Industry

December 21st, 2018

List price increases are not a cure all for the lighting industry as the overwhelming secular trends weigh heavily

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CTC: Relying on Those Living on the Edge While Leading with Your Chin Is a Scary Proposition

December 14th, 2018

“One thing I do want to mention though that we learned for the recession as well is you have to remember the nature of our portfolio. Where we are typically a bit of a higher risk more of a near-prime portfolio, it...

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TRUP: In a Fairly Uneventful Quarter, Management Reminds Us Why Rising Losses Have Created a Massive Pricing Problem...

November 9th, 2018

“We own an insurance entity and we own it so that we can lower our fixed expenses and offer a better value proposition back to the consumers. “ Darryl Rawlings. CEO, Trupanion Inc....

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Z/ZG: Who Could Have Predicted…. The Treacherous Transition from Quantity to Quality Crushes Another Lead Generation...

November 7th, 2018

In our note following Zillow’s 2Q18 results we wrote the following about the changes to how leads are delivered for the company’s Premier Agent advertising program (subsequently dubbed PA...

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ATGE: Don’t Let the Headline Numbers Fool You, the Business Remains on a March to Nowhere

November 2nd, 2018

To put it simply, ATGE trades like a company that generates mid-to-high single digit YOY organic revenue growth consistently. Every year for the past seven years, ATGE management (both prior and current) has dangled a mid-single...

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The Tipping Point Has Been Reached - Introducing a New Pair Trade Long RDFN/Short RLGY, Update to our Zillow Short...

October 22nd, 2018

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TRUP: Let the Numbers Tell the Story - No Matter How You Try to Spin It, Rising Losses Are THE Issue

October 10th, 2018

“Changes in historical American Pet Insurance Company loss and loss adjustment expense are primarily due to changes in statutory accounting classifications, as well as our inter-company agreements, and are not due...

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AYI: When Does “A Bit of Pressure” Equate to 350 bps? Lowering Price Objective to $89

October 4th, 2018

“We are certainly seeing a bit of headwind in material cost, largely around the commodity metals, steel, aluminum, both of which -- more from a secondary impact of the tariffs. We don't purchase that much steel that are...

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TRUP: 10 Critical Questions and Many Potentially Worrisome Answers

September 18th, 2018

Over the past few weeks, we’ve been incredibly fortunate to gather extensive feedback from bulls and bears alike about the merits of their investment thesis on TRUP.  One thing is clear: this is a highly contentious stock.  Bulls feel...

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BIG: What Would You Do?

August 31st, 2018

Somewhere in the Bay Area right now, a seasoned executive in the retail space sits in his office with a furrowed brow and clenched hands as he contemplates his move back to Ohio.  West Point grads are known for their tenacity in tackling a challenge, so there’s little doubt that Bruce...

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Where's the Bid? A New, More Troubling Era In Canadian Housing

April 10th, 2019

Over the past few weeks, we conducted a survey of more than 250 real estate agents across Canada. Click on the link below to view our presentation which outlines our research on the Canadian housing market at a high level and the critical findings from our...

READ MORE >

AYI: A Question of Quality as Management Simply Makes It Up as They Go Along

April 3rd, 2019

Well, let’s chalk today’s price action to yet another example of the difficulties of predicting near term gyrations in any given stock.  Even with PERFECT information, we would not have predicted that AYI shares would rally 9%...

READ MORE >

TREX: A Building Products Manufacturer with 40%+ Gross Margins Facing Rising Competition and Product Commoditization,...

March 28th, 2019

“Most decking contractors I know go for the cheapest brand. “ Regional Decking Products Distributor A few years ago, we introduced Acuity Brands as a short idea. At that time,...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

TREX

SHORT

$36

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

AYI

SHORT

$89

ARC

LONG

$5.50

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CM

SELL/SHORT

$76

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

BIG

SHORT

$28

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

CSGP

SHORT

$100

Some Companies We Follow