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Recent Reports

CWH: Demand Turns on a Dime and Now We Might Have Line of Sight to $400MM in EBITDA

May 8th, 2020

“As we sit here today, I'm proud to tell you that last weekend, our Friday, Saturday and Sunday in May was the biggest weekend in our company's history, period, end of story, in all aspects, every part of our...

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ATGE: The Company’s 3Q20 Margin Miracle Is a Mirage; Don’t Be Too Quick to Celebrate Chamberlain Start Growth,...

May 6th, 2020

“The increase in segment operating income is the result of strong Chamberlain enrollment trends and efforts to increase efficiency and reduce travel and discretionary spend, partially offset by...

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PRDO: What Is the Status of GI Bill Funding for AIU and CTU Students? What Happened in New York? Other Key Questions...

May 6th, 2020

We wanted to quickly go through some key questions that PRDO faces as we approach the company’s 1Q20 earnings release and conference call.  Sadly, we doubt that the company will address...

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TREX: And Now We Wait

May 5th, 2020

We’re going to keep it fairly short in this note.  Heading into the quarter, the magnitude of bullish sentiment surrounding TREX was simply baffling. Many analysts and investors appeared to be CONVINCED that strong feedback about decking related sales at Home Depot and Lowe’s...

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OSTK: Sitting With “Pocket Aces”, All OSTK Needs to Do Is Hold Serve; Raising Estimates (Meaningfully)

May 1st, 2020

               “Aces are larger than life and greater than mountains” Mike Caro Neither the most ardent bull nor the...

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CWH: Social Distancing from Anywhere – Time to Go Long Camping World Holdings (CWH) with a $20 Price Objective

April 29th, 2020

We are introducing Camping World Holdings (CWH) as a long idea with a $20 Price Objective.  Please see the attached slide deck which outlines our investment thesis and feedback from our survey of more...

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TREX: The Hard Realities for Composite Decking Manufacturers in a Post Covid-19 World

April 21st, 2020

Attached please find a report which outlines the feedback from a survey of decking dealers that we conducted over the first two weeks of April.

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CM/RY: Should the “Big 6” Canadian Banks Raise Capital Right Now?

April 8th, 2020

“Risk weighted assets for the Big 6 banks, and CM and RY in particular are massively understated in our view.  CM and RY are 26 and 23 times levered based on gross loan exposure to total Tier 1 capital.  Given their substantial...

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AYI: What’s the Cost of a Digital Transformation? For Shareholders, It Could Be a Lot; Our Revised Estimates

April 3rd, 2020

               “The recent revenue trends, however, will not fix themselves. There has been industry deflation. We have additional...

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STRA: This Is Not Your Uncle’s Higher Ed Market; Secular Headwinds and Now a Demand Shock, Time to Sell with a $63...

March 31st, 2020

“Given that more than 95% of our students are already taking all of their classes online and given that we have the capability to operate our company with our entire workforce working remotely,...

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AYI: A perfect storm of demand destruction and continued competition from Asian imports has emerged; Lowering AYI Price...

March 27th, 2020

This note represents the first of what will be a series of reports that we will publish in the coming weeks backed by surveys across a variety of industries.   While there are many...

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OSTK: In a World Where Stocks Continually Get Cheaper, OSTK Now Trading at a Discount to Cash, Could Be One of the...

March 16th, 2020

“So the biggest thing is, we've effectively imposed a view that we want to drive more leverage on the ad cost. So that would manifest to the ad cost as a percentage of revenue. So as you...

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PRDO: “90/10” Kill Zone? Potential Loss of VA Funding Could Create Massive Regulatory Issues for CTU/ AIU as Well...

March 9th, 2020

In a press release today, the U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs announced that it would disapprove the enrollment of new GI Bill students at the following five institutions: University of...

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TREX: The CEO Exits Stage Right at the Worst Possible Time; More Atrocious Earnings Quality from TREX

February 25th, 2020

“We estimate that composites account for 19% of the North American total decking market and that the enhanced products have further expanded our addressable market to about 60% of the overall decking market...

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Z/ZG: Bob Seger and the Yield Curve – When the Cyclical Is Confused as the Secular

February 20th, 2020

“And I guess I lost my way There were oh so many roads I was living to run and running to live Never worried about paying or even how much I owed” Seger, Bob. “Against the Wind”. Against the Wind....

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TRUP: Don’t Confuse What Management Says With What They Mean; The Questions That Should Have Been Asked on the Call

February 14th, 2020

Yesterday, TRUP management released the latest chapter of the scintillating fiction: Pet Insurance Economics According to Darryl.  There’s one thing that Mr. Rawlings and the rest of the...

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ATGE: Are You Insulted? At the Very Least Investors Should Be Gravely Concerned About the Sudden Surge in Bad-Debt...

February 5th, 2020

We’re nearly four years into the Wardell regime at ATGE and there are only a few things that we can conclusively state about the current management team at the company: They appear...

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AYI: PAA Research's Fourth Quarter 2019 Lighting Agent Survey

January 7th, 2020

Below is a link to a report outlining the findings from our 4Q19 survey of lighting agents. There are five critical conclusions that we want to point out: The efficacy of the 2H18 and early 2019 list price increases has eroded meaningfully The...

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OSTK: Is Anyone Paying Attention? Taking a Closer Look at tZERO’s Monetization Model

November 25th, 2019

               “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Benjamin Graham This oft...

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Canadian Banks/HCG.TO: Buy High, Sell Low; What Passes as Prudent Capital Allocation and Risk Management in the...

November 19th, 2019

“I think it's -- the work that's being done in our underwriting team to accurately price for risk. There's a lot of work that's going into the evaluation of business for self...

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CWH: Demand Turns on a Dime and Now We Might Have Line of Sight to $400MM in EBITDA

May 8th, 2020

“As we sit here today, I'm proud to tell you that last weekend, our Friday, Saturday and Sunday in May was the biggest weekend in our company's history, period, end of story, in all aspects, every part of our...

READ MORE >

ATGE: The Company’s 3Q20 Margin Miracle Is a Mirage; Don’t Be Too Quick to Celebrate Chamberlain Start Growth,...

May 6th, 2020

“The increase in segment operating income is the result of strong Chamberlain enrollment trends and efforts to increase efficiency and reduce travel and discretionary spend, partially offset by...

READ MORE >

PRDO: What Is the Status of GI Bill Funding for AIU and CTU Students? What Happened in New York? Other Key Questions...

May 6th, 2020

We wanted to quickly go through some key questions that PRDO faces as we approach the company’s 1Q20 earnings release and conference call.  Sadly, we doubt that the company will address...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$8

CWH

LONG

$20

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

OSTK

LONG

$39

AYI

SHORT

$50

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$63

TREX

SHORT

$36

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

CSGP

SHORT

$100

Some Companies We Follow