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PRDO: If You Read the 10-K Not the Earnings Release for Guidance, You’ll Know a Cat 5 Storm Could Be Coming to...

February 24th, 2023

“It’s absolutely ridiculous that anyone would buy shares in a company after reading an earnings release instead of the annual report” Charlie Munger (Probably) “As...

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PRDO: We’ve Seen This Story Before, It’s What the Beginning of the End Looks Like

February 25th, 2022

Over the past 20 years, we have become particularly adept at identifying the early stages of a potential “death spiral” for a for-profit education company.   From a notional perspective, for-profit education...

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PRDO: Nelson Finally Steps Down, Don’t Let the Door Hit You….

January 21st, 2022

Yesterday after the close, PRDO announced that Todd Nelson stepped down as President and CEO of PRDO effective 1/20/22. That’s right, no transition period.  This is a meaningful development for PRDO, the higher education industry, and our...

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PRDO: Starts Weakness Suggests EPS Power Could Unravel QUICKLY for PRDO, Mapping PRDO’s Huge Cash Uses, Lowering...

November 5th, 2021

Heading into PRDO’s earnings release, we never know what to expect. It is the hallmark of the company to do everything in its power to sustain a mirage of growth, stable enrollment, and...

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PRDO: Borrower Defense to Repayment Claims Could Imperil PRDO’s Cash Balances; What About ATGE?

August 6th, 2021

“The most common types of conduct that might make a borrower eligible for loan relief through borrower defense to repayment discharge are misrepresentations of the truth made by the school or its representatives...

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PRDO: From the Frying Pan to the Fire – New 90/10 Proposal Represents an Existential Threat to PRDO, Is This...

February 9th, 2021

“We have implemented various measures intended to reduce the percentage of our institution's cash basis revenue attributable to Title IV Program funds, including AIU’s deferred...

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PRDO: Is AIU Unraveling Before Our Eyes While the Walls Close in on CTU?

August 7th, 2020

“I did read the article. I thought -- again, it was -- some of the arguments, again, I felt were very outdated, and frankly, some of them are just not -- again, I don't think really applied, but that's my opinion. But regarding the...

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PRDO: What Is the Status of GI Bill Funding for AIU and CTU Students? What Happened in New York? Other Key Questions...

May 6th, 2020

We wanted to quickly go through some key questions that PRDO faces as we approach the company’s 1Q20 earnings release and conference call.  Sadly, we doubt that the company will address...

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PRDO: “90/10” Kill Zone? Potential Loss of VA Funding Could Create Massive Regulatory Issues for CTU/ AIU as Well...

March 9th, 2020

In a press release today, the U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs announced that it would disapprove the enrollment of new GI Bill students at the following five institutions: University of...

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CECO: Another Nelson Signature – Awful Earnings Quality

November 7th, 2019

If you’ve followed Todd Nelson’s career in the for-profit education space over the years, a few core competencies become evident: Running “fast and loose” with regulatory compliance Achieving enrollment growth at any cost for...

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CECO: A Case of History Repeating Itself in the Worst Possible Way?

September 18th, 2019

It’s been an interesting six weeks for Career Education Corporation.  In the time since we introduced CECO as a short idea, the stock has witnessed a 20%+ rally following the company’s 2Q19 earnings results, only to give up almost all...

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CECO: Failing Grades in Brand, Price, and Programmatic Differentiation + Todd Nelson? Time to Sell

August 1st, 2019

“The proliferation of outsourced online degree programs offered by traditional academic institutions has changed the competitive landscape in higher education.  The programs require almost no capital investment...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

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HUSQ.B

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UFPI

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TREX

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PRDO

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STRA

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CWH

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OSTK

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CM

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RY

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ARC

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AYI

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BIG

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WWE

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XOXO

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BCO

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ING.PA

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TRUP

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CTC

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ATGE

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HCG.TO

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RON.TO

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ESI

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25%

TTC

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25%

Z

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NA.TO

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APOL

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OPEN

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25%

CSGP

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GCA

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IPSU

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MLHR

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LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

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WPO

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COCO

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