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ATGE: 4Q19 - When Corporate Overhead Becomes a “Plug” to Meet Consensus EPS Expectations, While Enrollment Metrics...

August 23rd, 2019

Question – Jeffrey Marc Silber: Okay. And then sorry, just one more question on the quarter. Just looking at some of the details, if I look at the home office expense, even...

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RY: The Song Remains the Same for 3Q19 – Reckless Risk Management and IFRS-9 Accounting Driven Earnings Gains

August 22nd, 2019

“And so I think each quarter, I would just continue to reiterate from the guidance I provided previously is that the baseline here is that our reserves -- Stage 1 and 2 reserves will grow in line with...

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BIG: Closing Out BIG Short Idea With a 61.0% Gain and 90.6% Alpha Generation; Core Thesis Remains Intact

August 15th, 2019

Approximately 3-years ago we introduced BIG as a short idea. Our thesis at that time was as follows:   The financial benefits of gaining access to EBT/SNAP benefits and the introduction of Easy Leasing...

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Z/ZG: How Do You Spell Valuation Compression? “I-N-V-E-N-T-O-R-Y V-A-L-U-A-T-I-O-N A-D-J-U-S-T-M-E-N-T”; Other Key...

August 8th, 2019

“And I just wanted to talk about my attitude or our attitude toward iBuying. As we tried to make clear over the past 6 months, the demand is real and it's very strong. So we are quite...

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CECO: Failing Grades in Brand, Price, and Programmatic Differentiation + Todd Nelson? Time to Sell

August 1st, 2019

“The proliferation of outsourced online degree programs offered by traditional academic institutions has changed the competitive landscape in higher education.  The programs require almost no capital investment...

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TRUP: Now That the Growth Story Is Broken, the Company Can Finally Be Valued as the Loss Generating Insurance Business...

July 31st, 2019

“When it comes to claims as a percentage of revenue, it's really a factor of how is claims per pet increasing based on how ARPU, which is a per-pet number, is increasing. And they don't...

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TREX: “Can They Execute?” And Other Pressing Questions for TREX Management

July 30th, 2019

Admittedly, heading into the quarter we thought the revenue results and sales outlook for 3Q19 for TREX would be materially worse.  For the past few months the only consistent feedback we heard surrounding the company was that dealers...

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AYI: Game Over – Acuity’s Growth Days Are Gone

July 2nd, 2019

With all due respect to AYI management, there was nothing ridiculous about the (-11%) sell-off in AYI shares this morning.  Obviously we are in the minority here, as the stock rallied 3-4 to close down a more meager -8%.   Based on our checks with...

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AYI: Quickly Passing Through the Eye of the Storm - Pricing Pressure and Asian Competition Are Re-Emerging As the...

June 28th, 2019

Attached please find a slide deck outlining the feedback from our latest survey of lighting agents.

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Canadian Banks: Earnings Season Was a Disappointment, It Could Have and Should Have Been Much Worse; Take a Gander at...

June 6th, 2019

Heading into earnings season for the Big 6 Canadian banks, we were almost certain that a great deal of the discussion on the analyst conference calls would be centered around loan performance in...

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Z/ZG: Set an Insanely Low Bar, Step Over It, Celebrate… Really Though, In the Context of a 4-5 Year “Scorched...

May 10th, 2019

“Look, look, you don't have to be any good. I mean all you have to do is have someone less good along with you. That's the whole theory behind fishing” Murdock, Dwight...

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HCG.TO: The IFRS-9 Accounting Shenanigans Continue

May 9th, 2019

“Yes, because of forward looking, some of the economic scenarios have moderated. So our residential, despite the growth in the portfolio, some of that provision was released” Bradley Kotush.  Home Capital Group CFO. 1Q19 Earnings Conf. Call....

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TRUP: A Comp No TRUP Shareholder Wants to See

May 7th, 2019

Over the past 2-3 months, the competitive landscape for TRUP has shifted dramatically. First, Synchrony Financial (SYF) acquired Pets Best.   Synchrony will operate Pets Best as part of the company’s CareCredit division which offers a variety of credit...

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TRUP: Story Time Is Almost Over

May 3rd, 2019

Every stock is a story, it’s always been that way.  Tens of billions of dollars are spent annually by corporations to establish the narratives surrounding their companies in the investment community.  At no point in our investment careers, has story-telling been a more...

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RLGY: Collateral Damage in the Battle Between the Four Horsemen of the Real Estate Services Apocalypse

May 2nd, 2019

“I am on the hunt for new and bigger ideas that can change our company and even the industry. I know we have to keep thinking bigger given the industry dynamics and our need to create more shareholder...

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TREX: It’s April 29th, but for TREX 2019 Is Over, Competition Looms Even Larger Following the Company’s Execution...

April 30th, 2019

“We are very pleased with the current selling season, which will be for 2019 business. We had very good reception; we are going to take a lot of market share in the retail space with our...

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Where's the Bid? A New, More Troubling Era In Canadian Housing

April 10th, 2019

Over the past few weeks, we conducted a survey of more than 250 real estate agents across Canada. Click on the link below to view our presentation which outlines our research on the Canadian housing market at a high level and the critical findings from our...

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AYI: A Question of Quality as Management Simply Makes It Up as They Go Along

April 3rd, 2019

Well, let’s chalk today’s price action to yet another example of the difficulties of predicting near term gyrations in any given stock.  Even with PERFECT information, we would not have predicted that AYI shares would rally 9%...

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TREX: A Building Products Manufacturer with 40%+ Gross Margins Facing Rising Competition and Product Commoditization,...

March 28th, 2019

“Most decking contractors I know go for the cheapest brand. “ Regional Decking Products Distributor A few years ago, we introduced Acuity Brands as a short idea. At that time,...

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TRUP: The Pets Best Deal Could Mean Evisceration of “Other Revenues”; Stat Statements Suggest Rising Loss Rates...

March 7th, 2019

Well that was unexpected.  TRUP shares traded off more than (-12%) today in response to the news that Synchrony acquired Pets Best, a leading pet insurance agency with more than 125,000 policies...

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CM.TO: CIBC Breaks Ranks, Sort Of. The “Stage” Is Set for Increased Provisions Going Forward

February 28th, 2019

“As you know, what drives our provisioning for our performing loans really has to do with the changes that we make to scenarios and to our economic outlook. So it really depends, sort of, quarter-to-quarter how our...

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RLGY: Under Siege on All Sides with Consumer Brands in Decline, Restructuring Might Be the Only Viable Outcome

February 27th, 2019

“At least given where we are now and where we think the biggest leverage is to change our company's operating performance, we do believe it is focused on the agent. And so you're likely to see us...

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Z/ZG: Things You Didn’t Hear on the Conf. Call – The iBuyer Biz as “Table Stakes”, the Keller Williams Threat,...

February 22nd, 2019

“I still think that the target model that we've laid out, dating all the way back to the IPO, and again, at the Investor Day a couple of weeks ago, is the right margin framework for the...

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HCG.TO: With NIM Compression and Impaired Loans Up 65%+ YOY, HCG Played the IFRS-9 Remeasurement Game to Boost Earnings

February 22nd, 2019

“….right now, some of those predictive models are saying that there is going to be a more benign economic environment in the future, which would probably then lead to models to come up...

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TRUP: Management Continues to Tell Us All We Need to Know About the Structural Flaws of the Business in Their Own...

February 14th, 2019

Against our better judgement, we actually listened to the TRUP 4Q18 earnings conference call live.  Typically, the combination of management’s flowing discussion of its outlandish and...

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CM.TO/NA.TO/RY.TO: Bank EPS as Fiction – The Great “Remeasurement” Game Juiced EPS in 2018; Don’t Expect an...

January 17th, 2019

“In the case of the IFRS 9 guidance on performing, there's a lot of assumptions that go into what falls into the performing and it could be anything from your assessment of volatility to...

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AYI: 4Q18 Lighting Agent Survey - List Price Increases Have Not Been a Cure All for the Lighting Industry

December 21st, 2018

List price increases are not a cure all for the lighting industry as the overwhelming secular trends weigh heavily

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CTC: Relying on Those Living on the Edge While Leading with Your Chin Is a Scary Proposition

December 14th, 2018

“One thing I do want to mention though that we learned for the recession as well is you have to remember the nature of our portfolio. Where we are typically a bit of a higher risk more of a near-prime portfolio, it...

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TRUP: In a Fairly Uneventful Quarter, Management Reminds Us Why Rising Losses Have Created a Massive Pricing Problem...

November 9th, 2018

“We own an insurance entity and we own it so that we can lower our fixed expenses and offer a better value proposition back to the consumers. “ Darryl Rawlings. CEO, Trupanion Inc....

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Z/ZG: Who Could Have Predicted…. The Treacherous Transition from Quantity to Quality Crushes Another Lead Generation...

November 7th, 2018

In our note following Zillow’s 2Q18 results we wrote the following about the changes to how leads are delivered for the company’s Premier Agent advertising program (subsequently dubbed PA...

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