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Canadian Banks/HCG.TO: Buy High, Sell Low; What Passes as Prudent Capital Allocation and Risk Management in the...

November 19th, 2019

“I think it's -- the work that's being done in our underwriting team to accurately price for risk. There's a lot of work that's going into the evaluation of business for self...

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OSTK: The End of the Post Patrick Purge? OSTK Shares Now Trade at a 50%+ Discount To Our Estimate of Current...

November 13th, 2019

We thought we knew what we were getting into when we wrote up OSTK as a long idea less than two months ago. Since that time, shares have crashed more than (-50%) – obviously we made some...

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CECO: Another Nelson Signature – Awful Earnings Quality

November 7th, 2019

If you’ve followed Todd Nelson’s career in the for-profit education space over the years, a few core competencies become evident: Running “fast and loose” with regulatory compliance Achieving enrollment growth at any cost for...

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TRUP: When Your Stock Price Is Entirely Reliant on “Narrative” and Investor Ignorance You Have No Choice but to...

November 6th, 2019

We apologize for not publishing our thoughts following TRUP’s 3Q19 earnings release and subsequent conference call sooner.  We wanted to make sure we had the chance to fully vet some of...

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ATGE: Management Slashes Guidance; Remember When Nursing, Med, and Vet Schools Were Supposed to Be Growth Platforms?

October 30th, 2019

“Overall, we're pleased with our top line growth in the quarter, and we believe our stepped-up investments in marketing, along with increased corporate cost discipline position us well to...

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TREX: Atrocious Earnings Quality, Continued Execution Issues, and Rising Competition, Did We Miss Anything?

October 29th, 2019

“The fact that I mentioned for the first time any guidance on the top line growth, I think is noteworthy. I think what I said was that we plan to have solid double-digit growth in 2020. The demand we've...

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TREX: PAA Research's Fall 2019 Decking Products Dealer Survey

October 22nd, 2019

Slowing sales trends as competition starts to heat up.

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TRUP: The Walls Are Closing, If Not Caving In

October 15th, 2019

Sometimes in this business it truly is remarkable how stock price action dictates the narrative around a company.  We’re not going to go down the Soros reflexivity rabbit hole here, but let’s take you back just 10-weeks ago following TRUP’s 2Q19...

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AYI: How Does This Get Better? Lowering Price Objective to $79

October 3rd, 2019

               “…we feel it is important for all investors and analysts to understand that we believe our net sales could be down modestly in this coming fourth quarter...

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OSTK: With the “Byrne” Overhang Eliminated and a Plethora of Potential Positive Catalysts Ahead, Time to Go Long

September 19th, 2019

Before we get into the issue of the day, we wanted to provide some perspective on how we’re thinking about OSTK based on a similar investment idea we introduced roughly 8-years ago.  The...

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CECO: A Case of History Repeating Itself in the Worst Possible Way?

September 18th, 2019

It’s been an interesting six weeks for Career Education Corporation.  In the time since we introduced CECO as a short idea, the stock has witnessed a 20%+ rally following the company’s 2Q19 earnings results, only to give up almost all...

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ATGE: 4Q19 - When Corporate Overhead Becomes a “Plug” to Meet Consensus EPS Expectations, While Enrollment Metrics...

August 23rd, 2019

Question – Jeffrey Marc Silber: Okay. And then sorry, just one more question on the quarter. Just looking at some of the details, if I look at the home office expense, even...

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RY: The Song Remains the Same for 3Q19 – Reckless Risk Management and IFRS-9 Accounting Driven Earnings Gains

August 22nd, 2019

“And so I think each quarter, I would just continue to reiterate from the guidance I provided previously is that the baseline here is that our reserves -- Stage 1 and 2 reserves will grow in line with...

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BIG: Closing Out BIG Short Idea With a 61.0% Gain and 90.6% Alpha Generation; Core Thesis Remains Intact

August 15th, 2019

Approximately 3-years ago we introduced BIG as a short idea. Our thesis at that time was as follows:   The financial benefits of gaining access to EBT/SNAP benefits and the introduction of Easy Leasing...

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Z/ZG: How Do You Spell Valuation Compression? “I-N-V-E-N-T-O-R-Y V-A-L-U-A-T-I-O-N A-D-J-U-S-T-M-E-N-T”; Other Key...

August 8th, 2019

“And I just wanted to talk about my attitude or our attitude toward iBuying. As we tried to make clear over the past 6 months, the demand is real and it's very strong. So we are quite...

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CECO: Failing Grades in Brand, Price, and Programmatic Differentiation + Todd Nelson? Time to Sell

August 1st, 2019

“The proliferation of outsourced online degree programs offered by traditional academic institutions has changed the competitive landscape in higher education.  The programs require almost no capital investment...

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TRUP: Now That the Growth Story Is Broken, the Company Can Finally Be Valued as the Loss Generating Insurance Business...

July 31st, 2019

“When it comes to claims as a percentage of revenue, it's really a factor of how is claims per pet increasing based on how ARPU, which is a per-pet number, is increasing. And they don't...

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TREX: “Can They Execute?” And Other Pressing Questions for TREX Management

July 30th, 2019

Admittedly, heading into the quarter we thought the revenue results and sales outlook for 3Q19 for TREX would be materially worse.  For the past few months the only consistent feedback we heard surrounding the company was that dealers...

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AYI: Game Over – Acuity’s Growth Days Are Gone

July 2nd, 2019

With all due respect to AYI management, there was nothing ridiculous about the (-11%) sell-off in AYI shares this morning.  Obviously we are in the minority here, as the stock rallied 3-4 to close down a more meager -8%.   Based on our checks with...

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AYI: Quickly Passing Through the Eye of the Storm - Pricing Pressure and Asian Competition Are Re-Emerging As the...

June 28th, 2019

Attached please find a slide deck outlining the feedback from our latest survey of lighting agents.

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Canadian Banks: Earnings Season Was a Disappointment, It Could Have and Should Have Been Much Worse; Take a Gander at...

June 6th, 2019

Heading into earnings season for the Big 6 Canadian banks, we were almost certain that a great deal of the discussion on the analyst conference calls would be centered around loan performance in...

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Z/ZG: Set an Insanely Low Bar, Step Over It, Celebrate… Really Though, In the Context of a 4-5 Year “Scorched...

May 10th, 2019

“Look, look, you don't have to be any good. I mean all you have to do is have someone less good along with you. That's the whole theory behind fishing” Murdock, Dwight...

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HCG.TO: The IFRS-9 Accounting Shenanigans Continue

May 9th, 2019

“Yes, because of forward looking, some of the economic scenarios have moderated. So our residential, despite the growth in the portfolio, some of that provision was released” Bradley Kotush.  Home Capital Group CFO. 1Q19 Earnings Conf. Call....

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TRUP: A Comp No TRUP Shareholder Wants to See

May 7th, 2019

Over the past 2-3 months, the competitive landscape for TRUP has shifted dramatically. First, Synchrony Financial (SYF) acquired Pets Best.   Synchrony will operate Pets Best as part of the company’s CareCredit division which offers a variety of credit...

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TRUP: Story Time Is Almost Over

May 3rd, 2019

Every stock is a story, it’s always been that way.  Tens of billions of dollars are spent annually by corporations to establish the narratives surrounding their companies in the investment community.  At no point in our investment careers, has story-telling been a more...

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RLGY: Collateral Damage in the Battle Between the Four Horsemen of the Real Estate Services Apocalypse

May 2nd, 2019

“I am on the hunt for new and bigger ideas that can change our company and even the industry. I know we have to keep thinking bigger given the industry dynamics and our need to create more shareholder...

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TREX: It’s April 29th, but for TREX 2019 Is Over, Competition Looms Even Larger Following the Company’s Execution...

April 30th, 2019

“We are very pleased with the current selling season, which will be for 2019 business. We had very good reception; we are going to take a lot of market share in the retail space with our...

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Where's the Bid? A New, More Troubling Era In Canadian Housing

April 10th, 2019

Over the past few weeks, we conducted a survey of more than 250 real estate agents across Canada. Click on the link below to view our presentation which outlines our research on the Canadian housing market at a high level and the critical findings from our...

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AYI: A Question of Quality as Management Simply Makes It Up as They Go Along

April 3rd, 2019

Well, let’s chalk today’s price action to yet another example of the difficulties of predicting near term gyrations in any given stock.  Even with PERFECT information, we would not have predicted that AYI shares would rally 9%...

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TREX: A Building Products Manufacturer with 40%+ Gross Margins Facing Rising Competition and Product Commoditization,...

March 28th, 2019

“Most decking contractors I know go for the cheapest brand. “ Regional Decking Products Distributor A few years ago, we introduced Acuity Brands as a short idea. At that time,...

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Current Ideas

AYI

SHORT

$79

OSTK

LONG

$39

BIG

SHORT

$28

CECO

SELL/SHORT

$8

TREX

SHORT

$36

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

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RLGY

PAIR TRADE

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RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

ARC

LONG

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BCO

LONG

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ING.PA

SHORT

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TRUP

SELL/SHORT

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RY

SELL/SHORT

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CM

SELL/SHORT

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CTC

SHORT

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ATGE

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$15

HCG.TO

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$0

RON.TO

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ESI

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BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

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NA.TO

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ZU

SHORT

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TRLA

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$20

MCRS

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$31

APOL

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$35

OPEN

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$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

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$100

GCA

LONG

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IPSU

LONG

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MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR