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TRUP: The Pets Best Deal Could Mean Evisceration of “Other Revenues”; Stat Statements Suggest Rising Loss Rates...

March 7th, 2019

Well that was unexpected.  TRUP shares traded off more than (-12%) today in response to the news that Synchrony acquired Pets Best, a leading pet insurance agency with more than 125,000 policies...

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CM.TO: CIBC Breaks Ranks, Sort Of. The “Stage” Is Set for Increased Provisions Going Forward

February 28th, 2019

“As you know, what drives our provisioning for our performing loans really has to do with the changes that we make to scenarios and to our economic outlook. So it really depends, sort of, quarter-to-quarter how our...

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RLGY: Under Siege on All Sides with Consumer Brands in Decline, Restructuring Might Be the Only Viable Outcome

February 27th, 2019

“At least given where we are now and where we think the biggest leverage is to change our company's operating performance, we do believe it is focused on the agent. And so you're likely to see us...

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Z/ZG: Things You Didn’t Hear on the Conf. Call – The iBuyer Biz as “Table Stakes”, the Keller Williams Threat,...

February 22nd, 2019

“I still think that the target model that we've laid out, dating all the way back to the IPO, and again, at the Investor Day a couple of weeks ago, is the right margin framework for the...

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HCG.TO: With NIM Compression and Impaired Loans Up 65%+ YOY, HCG Played the IFRS-9 Remeasurement Game to Boost Earnings

February 22nd, 2019

“….right now, some of those predictive models are saying that there is going to be a more benign economic environment in the future, which would probably then lead to models to come up...

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TRUP: Management Continues to Tell Us All We Need to Know About the Structural Flaws of the Business in Their Own...

February 14th, 2019

Against our better judgement, we actually listened to the TRUP 4Q18 earnings conference call live.  Typically, the combination of management’s flowing discussion of its outlandish and...

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CM.TO/NA.TO/RY.TO: Bank EPS as Fiction – The Great “Remeasurement” Game Juiced EPS in 2018; Don’t Expect an...

January 17th, 2019

“In the case of the IFRS 9 guidance on performing, there's a lot of assumptions that go into what falls into the performing and it could be anything from your assessment of volatility to...

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AYI: 4Q18 Lighting Agent Survey - List Price Increases Have Not Been a Cure All for the Lighting Industry

December 21st, 2018

List price increases are not a cure all for the lighting industry as the overwhelming secular trends weigh heavily

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CTC: Relying on Those Living on the Edge While Leading with Your Chin Is a Scary Proposition

December 14th, 2018

“One thing I do want to mention though that we learned for the recession as well is you have to remember the nature of our portfolio. Where we are typically a bit of a higher risk more of a near-prime portfolio, it...

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TRUP: In a Fairly Uneventful Quarter, Management Reminds Us Why Rising Losses Have Created a Massive Pricing Problem...

November 9th, 2018

“We own an insurance entity and we own it so that we can lower our fixed expenses and offer a better value proposition back to the consumers. “ Darryl Rawlings. CEO, Trupanion Inc....

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Z/ZG: Who Could Have Predicted…. The Treacherous Transition from Quantity to Quality Crushes Another Lead Generation...

November 7th, 2018

In our note following Zillow’s 2Q18 results we wrote the following about the changes to how leads are delivered for the company’s Premier Agent advertising program (subsequently dubbed PA...

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ATGE: Don’t Let the Headline Numbers Fool You, the Business Remains on a March to Nowhere

November 2nd, 2018

To put it simply, ATGE trades like a company that generates mid-to-high single digit YOY organic revenue growth consistently. Every year for the past seven years, ATGE management (both prior and current) has dangled a mid-single...

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The Tipping Point Has Been Reached - Introducing a New Pair Trade Long RDFN/Short RLGY, Update to our Zillow Short...

October 22nd, 2018

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TRUP: Let the Numbers Tell the Story - No Matter How You Try to Spin It, Rising Losses Are THE Issue

October 10th, 2018

“Changes in historical American Pet Insurance Company loss and loss adjustment expense are primarily due to changes in statutory accounting classifications, as well as our inter-company agreements, and are not due...

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AYI: When Does “A Bit of Pressure” Equate to 350 bps? Lowering Price Objective to $89

October 4th, 2018

“We are certainly seeing a bit of headwind in material cost, largely around the commodity metals, steel, aluminum, both of which -- more from a secondary impact of the tariffs. We don't purchase that much steel that are...

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TRUP: 10 Critical Questions and Many Potentially Worrisome Answers

September 18th, 2018

Over the past few weeks, we’ve been incredibly fortunate to gather extensive feedback from bulls and bears alike about the merits of their investment thesis on TRUP.  One thing is clear: this is a highly contentious stock.  Bulls feel...

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BIG: What Would You Do?

August 31st, 2018

Somewhere in the Bay Area right now, a seasoned executive in the retail space sits in his office with a furrowed brow and clenched hands as he contemplates his move back to Ohio.  West Point grads are known for their tenacity in tackling a challenge, so there’s little doubt that Bruce...

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Z/ZG: A Closer Look at the Homes Division - Is Profitability Really the Goal? Not When You Sell Homes at a 3-4% Premium...

August 17th, 2018

“At this point, we're clearly bias towards scale over profitability, but because we've been selling the houses so much faster than we anticipated, the return on equity has been better...

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HCG.TO: On a March to Nowhere, the Structural Flaws of the “New HCG” Have Started to Become Clear

August 14th, 2018

For several years now, we have wondered aloud what HCG’s financial profile would look like in a scenario in which the company was forced to introduce true underwriting rigor to its mortgage origination...

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Z/ZG: There Must Be a Pony in There Somewhere, An Ode to Zillow’s “Napkin Math” as the Company Attempts to Evolve...

August 7th, 2018

“Then he clambered to the top of the pile, dropped to his knees, and began gleefully digging out scoop after scoop with his bare hands. 'What do you think you're doing?' the...

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TRUP: “You Had Us at Hello”, Introducing TRUP as a Short Idea with a Price Objective of $10

August 2nd, 2018

“We are a direct-to-consumer monthly subscription service providing a medical insurance plan for cats and dogs throughout the United States, Canada and Puerto Rico. “ Trupanion, Inc. S-1 Filing....

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PAA Research's Second Quarter 2018 Lighting Agent Survey

June 28th, 2018

More of the same on the pricing front as structural disruption in the channel continues and agents increasingly question the duration of the led cycle...

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ATGE: In the Nursing Market, There’s Nowhere to Run to, Nowhere to Hide

June 22nd, 2018

“The first slide talks about demand for nursing, and I know this is a frequent question that many of you have. And the data are conflicting. There's a lot of disagreement in the marketplace about whether there is or will be a shortage,...

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CM.TO/RY.TO: The Big Banks Finally Acknowledge That We’ve Entered Phase 1 of Phase 1

May 24th, 2018

“So the original 10% was related to what we thought or anticipated the B-20 impact would be. So that was on that part of the business. When we take a look at the second half ,we continue to see that there will be origination...

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Z/ZG: Where’s George Carlin When You Need Him? New York State Allegedly Says No to the Premier Agent Program for...

May 8th, 2018

“About this time, someone is telling you to get on the plane. "Get on the plane. Get on the plane." I say….. I'm getting IN the plane! IN the plane! Let Evil Knievel get ON...

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ATGE: Mediocrity Yes, Quality No

May 4th, 2018

We’re going to keep things brief here. The current ATGE management team has always favored style over substance, particularly in their shareholder communications.  Management has spent an inordinate amount of time crafting a growth narrative around the company when in reality...

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Z/ZG: What Did Zillow Really Announce? The Company’s Decision To Start Buying Homes Isn’t the Most Important...

April 13th, 2018

With management’s usual flair for the dramatic and acute sense of self-importance, Zillow announced yesterday that it plans to buy and sell homes on the open market through expansion of the...

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Canadian Housing: Reflexivity Cuts Both Ways, Negative Feedback Loops Have Started to Emerge

March 29th, 2018

We hope you will consider this report for your weekend reading list. Over the past few weeks we surveyed more than 300 real estate agents in Canada. The attached presentation outlines the feedback we received from those agents...

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BIG: A Troubling Fact Pattern Emerges as Thesis Creep Sets in For Longs

March 9th, 2018

Heading into BIG’s 4Q17 earnings release, we thought the company would be able to generate positive comps, albeit lower than consensus, but would struggle to generate the kind of operating leverage on meager SSS growth it has achieved over...

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BIG: Will Unrelenting Competitive Pressures and Rising Cost Inflation Finally Lead to Massive EPS Degradation?

February 28th, 2018

Presumably BIG will report 4Q17 earnings results on Friday morning.  At this stage, the company has not yet announced an official reporting date which is somewhat unusual.  Historically, BIG has...

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