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Recent Reports

FRPT: Another Relief Rally/Dead Cat Bounce as Core KPI’s Continue to Deteriorate

November 3rd, 2025

Relief rally? Short covering? Dead cat bounce? Whatever you want to call it, we doubt that today’s robust price action will endure given the challenges that FRPT faces today, tomorrow, next month, in 2026, and realistically in...

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Z/ZG: Steady Execution in the Core as New Product Rollout Accelerates, a Closer Look at Zillow Pro

October 31st, 2025

Zillow shares are flat more or less on a YTD basis and now trade (-15%) below where the stock did roughly 5-years ago.  Remember those days? The absurdities of the iBuying initiative were in full swing and rates were...

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SAF SURVEYS: Fall 2025

October 28th, 2025

We have published our latest SAF SURVEYS which capture feedback from dealers across the country in nine different industries.  The survey was sent to respondents over the past two weeks and 100 individual dealers participated.  Dealers from the following industries participated in our...

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KNSL: Increasingly Challenging Questions for the Insurer of Last Resort

October 24th, 2025

A year ago today, we published our first report on KNSL: “An Insurer of Last Resort Riding an E&S Pricing Wave; Time to Get Short wit ha  Price Objective of $230”.  We encourage you to read our initial report in which we...

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PAA Research's October 2025 Watch List Has Been Published

October 15th, 2025

You can read the latest Watch List by click HERE or the link below which will give you access to the full report.  The nine best performing long and short ideas from the July 2025 Watch List generated average ALPHA over the past 3-months of...

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Z/ZG/RKT/CSGP: Details on Today’s Rental Property Marketing Industry Following a Curious Action from the FTC Against...

October 1st, 2025

“We were disappointed that we were not able to close our proposed acquisition of RentPath but believe our time and money was ultimately very well spent in the process. We and RentPath...

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RKT/Z/ZG/HOUS/EXPI: The Mortgage Broker View

September 30th, 2025

Over the past 2-3 weeks, we conducted a survey of dozens of mortgage brokers across the country. The attached report encapsulates the feedback from our proprietary survey including: Volume trends Originator competitive positioning Market and technology spending...

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Z/ZG/CSGP/FAF/STC/COMP/HOUS: Winners and Losers Following a Seminal Transaction Announcement in the Real Estate...

September 22nd, 2025

In late June we published a report entitled: “THE WAR FOR RESIDENTIAL REAL ESTATE: A FIERCE BATTLE FOR THE HOME BETWEEN Zillow (Z/ZG), CoStar Group (CSGP), Rocket, inc. (RKT), and Compass Group...

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TRUP: Trupanion’s Crisis in Florida, the Rate Spiral, and Other Things That Were Not Discussed at the Company’s...

September 18th, 2025

“Trupanion’s product is designed to be used. It is designed with a lifetime per condition deductible and with the pricing at the age of enrollment to ensure that coverage can truly be...

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Observations and Thoughts from the Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (University of Phoenix) S-1 Filing

September 2nd, 2025

Last Friday, AP VIII Queso Holdings L.P. which will soon be converted into Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. filed an S-1 registration statement for an initial public offering.  Phoenix Education Partners primary...

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SAF Surveys: August 2025

August 29th, 2025

Below please find a link to a report which summarizes the findings from our latest round of SAF Surveys. This month we asked our survey respondents questions about their advertising budgets and marketing strategies in addition to our usual questions related to core KPI's. The report...

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TRUP: Management’s Comments on Pricing Should Really Bother You Just Ask the Nevada Regulators; Former TRUP Execs...

August 14th, 2025

“Yes. I mean our pricing is set for the back half of the year. So, we're not going to be adjusting any rates that our members are going to be seeing right now because we set them around a...

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TRUP: DEAD COMPANY WALKING; Enrollment Growth Collapses Just as TRUP Jacks Up Rates Again; Trust These Executives at...

August 8th, 2025

“We are continuing to work with regulators to get rate. We have around 40% of our book, if not a little bit more, are priced ahead of the curve. So, what I mean by that is pet parents have got...

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Z/ZG: What’s Old Is New Again and That Might Just Be a Good Thing; Line of Sight on Growth Compels Us to Raise Price...

August 7th, 2025

“In our view, Zillow has the potential to be a transformative company in the US housing market….Zillow offers a steady stream of high quality leads and customer relationship management...

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FRPT: A (Likely) Fleeting Relief Rally as Investors Chew on the Possibility that the Company Could Be Ex-Growth;...

August 4th, 2025

Three months ago we posed a simple, yet challenging question: Are the revenue growth issues at FRPT secular or cyclical?  Following the company’s 2Q25 earning release the answer has become...

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RKT: A Tiny Taste of Things to Come as RKT Increasingly Looks Like THE AI Winner in Residential Real Estate

August 1st, 2025

We don’t know about you, but the thoughts of Counterpoint Global and Michael Mauboussin were ringing in our ears yesterday during the RKT 2Q25 earnings conference call. In Counterpoint’s seminal...

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SAF Surveys July 2025: AI Usage Trends and KPI Checks from the Dealer and Independent Retail Channels

July 25th, 2025

Below please find a link to our latest monthly series of SAF Surveys. This month we added a series of checks within a new sector: power sports equipment. In addition, we asked the 100+ dealers and independent...

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PAA Research's July 2025 "Watch List" Has Been Published

July 23rd, 2025

We apologize for the delay in pubishing this quarter's Watch List.  You can read the latest Watch List by click HERE or the link below which will give you access to the full report.  Our goal is to publish this list some time between the 10th-20th...

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TRUP: The Key Questions Facing TRUP as Pricing Continues to Go on “TILT” in a Clear Sign of an Insurance Rate Spiral

July 18th, 2025

“We are continuing to work with regulators to get rate. We have around 40% of our book, if not a little bit more, are priced ahead of the curve. So, what I mean by that is pet parents have got...

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Buyback Outliers: 2Q25 Update

July 1st, 2025

In our first report in which we introduced the Buyback Outliers List in December of last year, we argued that those companies with consistent and sizeable buyback programs typically performed better during market downturns even though the relative outperformance of serial stock...

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FRPT: Another Relief Rally/Dead Cat Bounce as Core KPI’s Continue to Deteriorate

November 3rd, 2025

Relief rally? Short covering? Dead cat bounce? Whatever you want to call it, we doubt that today’s robust price action will endure given the challenges that FRPT faces today, tomorrow, next month, in 2026, and realistically in...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: Steady Execution in the Core as New Product Rollout Accelerates, a Closer Look at Zillow Pro

October 31st, 2025

Zillow shares are flat more or less on a YTD basis and now trade (-15%) below where the stock did roughly 5-years ago.  Remember those days? The absurdities of the iBuying initiative were in full swing and rates were...

READ MORE >

SAF SURVEYS: Fall 2025

October 28th, 2025

We have published our latest SAF SURVEYS which capture feedback from dealers across the country in nine different industries.  The survey was sent to respondents over the past two weeks and 100 individual dealers participated.  Dealers from the following industries participated in our...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

Z

LONG

$126

RKT

LONG

$25

CSGP

SHORT

$52

TTC

LONG

$110

KNSL

SELL/SHORT

$230

BYON

LONG

$70

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

Some Companies We Follow