Log In

“Great service and wonderful research. Thank you.”
- Senior Analyst at a multi-billion dollar hedge fund

Recent Reports

Observations and Thoughts from the Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (University of Phoenix) S-1 Filing

September 2nd, 2025

Last Friday, AP VIII Queso Holdings L.P. which will soon be converted into Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. filed an S-1 registration statement for an initial public offering.  Phoenix Education Partners primary...

READ MORE >

SAF Surveys: August 2025

August 29th, 2025

Below please find a link to a report which summarizes the findings from our latest round of SAF Surveys. This month we asked our survey respondents questions about their advertising budgets and marketing strategies in addition to our usual questions related to core KPI's. The report...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Management’s Comments on Pricing Should Really Bother You Just Ask the Nevada Regulators; Former TRUP Execs...

August 14th, 2025

“Yes. I mean our pricing is set for the back half of the year. So, we're not going to be adjusting any rates that our members are going to be seeing right now because we set them around a...

READ MORE >

TRUP: DEAD COMPANY WALKING; Enrollment Growth Collapses Just as TRUP Jacks Up Rates Again; Trust These Executives at...

August 8th, 2025

“We are continuing to work with regulators to get rate. We have around 40% of our book, if not a little bit more, are priced ahead of the curve. So, what I mean by that is pet parents have got...

READ MORE >

Z/ZG: What’s Old Is New Again and That Might Just Be a Good Thing; Line of Sight on Growth Compels Us to Raise Price...

August 7th, 2025

“In our view, Zillow has the potential to be a transformative company in the US housing market….Zillow offers a steady stream of high quality leads and customer relationship management...

READ MORE >

FRPT: A (Likely) Fleeting Relief Rally as Investors Chew on the Possibility that the Company Could Be Ex-Growth;...

August 4th, 2025

Three months ago we posed a simple, yet challenging question: Are the revenue growth issues at FRPT secular or cyclical?  Following the company’s 2Q25 earning release the answer has become...

READ MORE >

RKT: A Tiny Taste of Things to Come as RKT Increasingly Looks Like THE AI Winner in Residential Real Estate

August 1st, 2025

We don’t know about you, but the thoughts of Counterpoint Global and Michael Mauboussin were ringing in our ears yesterday during the RKT 2Q25 earnings conference call. In Counterpoint’s seminal...

READ MORE >

SAF Surveys July 2025: AI Usage Trends and KPI Checks from the Dealer and Independent Retail Channels

July 25th, 2025

Below please find a link to our latest monthly series of SAF Surveys. This month we added a series of checks within a new sector: power sports equipment. In addition, we asked the 100+ dealers and independent...

READ MORE >

PAA Research's July 2025 "Watch List" Has Been Published

July 23rd, 2025

We apologize for the delay in pubishing this quarter's Watch List.  You can read the latest Watch List by click HERE or the link below which will give you access to the full report.  Our goal is to publish this list some time between the 10th-20th...

READ MORE >

TRUP: The Key Questions Facing TRUP as Pricing Continues to Go on “TILT” in a Clear Sign of an Insurance Rate Spiral

July 18th, 2025

“We are continuing to work with regulators to get rate. We have around 40% of our book, if not a little bit more, are priced ahead of the curve. So, what I mean by that is pet parents have got...

READ MORE >

Buyback Outliers: 2Q25 Update

July 1st, 2025

In our first report in which we introduced the Buyback Outliers List in December of last year, we argued that those companies with consistent and sizeable buyback programs typically performed better during market downturns even though the relative outperformance of serial stock...

READ MORE >

"SAF Surveys" June 2025

June 20th, 2025

Below is a link to our latest "SAF Surveys". We conduct these survey EVERY month.  The report includes actionable trade ideas based on the feedback, high level conclusions, and industry specific findings.  We have surveyed approximately 80 dealers and retailers across the...

READ MORE >

The War for Residential Real Estate: A Fierce Battle for the Home Between Z/ZG, CSGP, RKT, and COMP. Time to Go Long...

June 12th, 2025

We are introducing Z/ZG and RKT as long idea and CSGP, FAF, and STC as short ideas. This report is backed by feedback from more than 60 real estate agents and includes a comprehensive analysis of...

READ MORE >

TTC: Steady Execution in a Tepid Environment as Toro Continues to Drive Shareholder Returns; Reiterating Price...

June 5th, 2025

First a little anecdote.  As we searched for a file in our TTC folder this morning, we decided to open up a brief note we published FOURTEEN years ago in the early days of PAA Research. At the...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Trupanion’s California Conundrum Looks Like a Case Study in an Insurance Rate Spiral

May 29th, 2025

“We are continuing to work with regulators to get rate. We have around 40% of our book, if not a little bit more, are priced ahead of the curve. So, what I mean by that is pet parents have got pricing in place that...

READ MORE >

Introducing the "SAF Surveys" - A View From Dealers Across the Industrial Complex

May 16th, 2025

We are introducing a new research product this morning: the "SAF Surveys".  We have conducted a survey of roughly 70 dealers across a variety of industries including: Construction equipment dealers Outdoor power...

READ MORE >

EXPI: When the US Recruitment Engine Falters, You Become an International Growth Story

May 7th, 2025

It’s never a good sign when a supposed leader in the US real estate industry begins the prepared remarks for the conference call with a discussion of market launches in PERU and TURKEY during the quarter. In theory, EXPI...

READ MORE >

FRPT: Secular or Cyclical? That is the Question

May 6th, 2025

Let’s not forget how the year started with Freshpet  The management team always comes off as affable and forthcoming, when things are going well….  Starting back in early January, FRPT management elected not to include a new slide deck as part of...

READ MORE >

TRUP: More of the Same from TRUP as the Company Continues to Hemorrhage Share in the Suddenly SLOWING Pet Insurance...

May 2nd, 2025

If we take one giant step back and remove ourselves from the “weeds” of Trupanion, the one conclusion we can make about the company’s earnings results is that it was simply...

READ MORE >

TRUP: The Key Questions TRUP Faces Heading into 1Q25 Earnings as the Insurance Rate Spiral Is Increasingly Laid Bare

April 30th, 2025

In what can only be described as a pyrrhic victory, we were modestly encouraged by the stock price action in TRUP over the past few weeks.  That warrants an explanation.   For almost a...

READ MORE >

Observations and Thoughts from the Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (University of Phoenix) S-1 Filing

September 2nd, 2025

Last Friday, AP VIII Queso Holdings L.P. which will soon be converted into Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. filed an S-1 registration statement for an initial public offering.  Phoenix Education Partners primary...

READ MORE >

SAF Surveys: August 2025

August 29th, 2025

Below please find a link to a report which summarizes the findings from our latest round of SAF Surveys. This month we asked our survey respondents questions about their advertising budgets and marketing strategies in addition to our usual questions related to core KPI's. The report...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Management’s Comments on Pricing Should Really Bother You Just Ask the Nevada Regulators; Former TRUP Execs...

August 14th, 2025

“Yes. I mean our pricing is set for the back half of the year. So, we're not going to be adjusting any rates that our members are going to be seeing right now because we set them around a...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

RKT

LONG

$25

CSGP

SHORT

$52

Z

LONG

$108

TTC

LONG

$110

KNSL

SELL/SHORT

$230

BYON

LONG

$70

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

Some Companies We Follow