Below is a link to our latest "SAF Surveys". We conduct these survey EVERY month. The report includes actionable trade ideas based on the feedback, high level conclusions, and industry specific findings. We have surveyed approximately 80 dealers and retailers across the...
READ MORE >“We haven't decided how we'll report that next year as of yet. If it's more helpful to the market, we'll show it that way..” - Bryan Fairbanks, CEO Trex Company, Inc.. 10/24/24. 3Q24...
READ MORE >Let’s put ourselves in the shoes of a TREX investor this morning. You walked into the office yesterday thinking that TREX was one of the best secular growth stories in the industrial complex...
READ MORE >“And the comment that I'm making has more do with the amount of capacity that all the wood/plastic composite manufacturers have added over the years, and there's a number of smaller participants in...
READ MORE >“I am feeling more positive about the Trex consumer today than I was feeling a year ago” Bryan Fairbanks, President and CEO. Trex Company, Inc. 10/30/23. 3Q23 Earnings Conf. Call Imagine having the unmitigated gall to...
READ MORE >I'm pleased to report that, as anticipated, the inventory recalibration was completed by year-end. With good participation in the early buy season, we entered the year an upcoming season with inventory...
READ MORE >“You think you’re better than me?!!” Now former TREX employee to Bryan Fairbanks, President and CEO. Trex Company, Inc. (Probably) Imagine you worked for TREX at their...
READ MORE >“By all measures, Trex performed exceedingly well in the second quarter.” Bryan Fairbanks, President and CEO. Trex Company, Inc. 8/8/22. 2Q22 Earnings Conf. Call If you have a “Wall of Fame”...
READ MORE >The attached report details our short thesis on TREX and outlines the feedback we received from our latest survey of decking products dealers.
READ MORE >TREX shares have declined nearly (-60%) thus far this year largely due to a widespread rerating of growth stocks following a near unprecedented increase in interest rates. Remarkably, even after the enormous decline in TREX shares over...
READ MORE >“Fortunately, about half of the additional planned capacity has come online this month, with the balance expected by the end of January -- or excuse me, the end of April 2022. Our continuous...
READ MORE >“Normal is the wrong name often used for average” Henry S. Haskins On TREX’s 2Q21 earnings conference call there were TWELVE references to “normal”, “normalization”, or “normalized”. ...
READ MORE >TREX has an $11B+ market cap. In a market full of excess, this singular data point has us shaking our heads day after day. After all TREX manufactures composite decking from wood pulp and recycled plastic. Based on the deluge of...
READ MORE >There are better companies whose stocks have been absolutely destroyed over the past few weeks for posting the type of upside that TREX delivered in the third quarter. Yes, the company generated strong sales growth and...
READ MORE >The strength in sales of products related to the “home” since early March truly has been something to behold. This is particularly true of items that can be used outdoors or can improve the...
READ MORE >We’re going to keep it fairly short in this note. Heading into the quarter, the magnitude of bullish sentiment surrounding TREX was simply baffling. Many analysts and investors appeared to be CONVINCED that strong feedback about decking related sales at Home Depot and Lowe’s...
READ MORE >Attached please find a report which outlines the feedback from a survey of decking dealers that we conducted over the first two weeks of April.
READ MORE >“We estimate that composites account for 19% of the North American total decking market and that the enhanced products have further expanded our addressable market to about 60% of the overall decking market...
READ MORE >“The fact that I mentioned for the first time any guidance on the top line growth, I think is noteworthy. I think what I said was that we plan to have solid double-digit growth in 2020. The demand we've...
READ MORE >Slowing sales trends as competition starts to heat up.
READ MORE >Admittedly, heading into the quarter we thought the revenue results and sales outlook for 3Q19 for TREX would be materially worse. For the past few months the only consistent feedback we heard surrounding the company was that dealers...
READ MORE >“We are very pleased with the current selling season, which will be for 2019 business. We had very good reception; we are going to take a lot of market share in the retail space with our...
READ MORE >“Most decking contractors I know go for the cheapest brand. “ Regional Decking Products Distributor A few years ago, we introduced Acuity Brands as a short idea. At that time,...
READ MORE >SHORT
$40
SHORT
$38
LONG
$25
SHORT
$52
LONG
$108
SELL
$50
SHORT
$50
LONG
$110
SELL/SHORT
$230
SELL/SHORT
$55
LONG
$70
SELL/SHORT
$4
SELL/SHORT
$45
SHORT
$18
SELL/SHORT
$5
SELL/SHORT
$42
LONG
$75
SELL/SHORT
$50
SELL/SHORT
$50
LONG
$5.50
SHORT
$28
LONG
$65
LONG
$37
PAIR TRADE
$10
PAIR TRADE
$30
LONG
$35
SHORT
$35
SELL/SHORT
$10
SHORT
$101
SHORT
$15
SHORT
$0
SHORT
$9
SHORT
$0
PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC
25%
SHORT
$22
SHORT
$15
SHORT
$20
SHORT
$31
SHORT
$35
SHORT
$30
PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR
25%
LONG
$8
LONG
$20
SHORT
$22
PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP
40%
LONG
$35
SHORT
$275
SHORT
$0