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- Senior Analyst at a multi-billion dollar hedge fund

Recent Reports

TREX: How Quickly Can the Channel Go From “Well Stocked” to “Stuffed”?

May 10th, 2022

TREX shares have declined nearly (-60%) thus far this year largely due to a widespread rerating of growth stocks following a near unprecedented increase in interest rates.  Remarkably, even after the enormous decline in TREX shares over...

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ATGE: Management Puts on a Brave Face as Starts Deteriorate

May 6th, 2022

Another quarter and another 20-25 minute earnings conference call where ATGE management attempted to blame COVID19 for all of their demand and operational woes.  There is no doubt that COVID19 has created a significant headwind for demand for nursing...

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CWH: Bears Swimming Against the Tide; When Estimates Go Down and the Stock Goes Up, the Short Interest Starts to Loom...

May 4th, 2022

For the past two years, we have listened to criticism after criticism of Marcus Lemonis and Camping World.   Skeptics typically bring up the following issues when criticizing Marcus, his...

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OSTK: Ten Reasons Things Will Get Better from Here for OSTK and Its Shareholders

April 29th, 2022

We lack imagination as investors.  It is the hallmark of every bull and bear market that we underestimate the upside and cannot fathom the downside for the companies in which we invest long or short.  This statement not only...

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TRUP: Not Now, Not Ever; This Is What the Start of a Broken Growth Story Looks Like

April 29th, 2022

It’s a signature of the human condition: two people can look at the same exact thing and have completely different reactions and descriptions as to what it is.  This is particularly true of works of art whose value is almost...

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TRUP: We’ll Take Your “Kuyashii” and Wish TRUP Shares “Sayonara”; TRUP Lowers Its Growth Objectives Amidst...

April 27th, 2022

Was it really only 5-months ago when TRUP shares surged to $150+ following the announcement that the company forged a partnership with the leading ecommerce platform for pet products, CHWY? ...

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HUSQ.B: No Domo Arigoto Mr. Roboto

April 12th, 2022

We introduced HUSQ.B as a short idea a few weeks ago based on our expectation that the outdoor powere equipment industry has experienced significant demand pull forward, the transition to battery powered products could dilute the company's marigns meaningfully, and demand for...

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CWH: Time to Shine

April 4th, 2022

Our latest RV dealer checks suggest industry demand remains solid while inventory levels have started to normalize. More importantly we think we are moving into an environment were the merits of CWH's strategic growth initiatives introduced over the past 2-3 years should start to shine. ...

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TREX: The Negative Estimate Revision Cycle Begins, In the Face of Unprecedented Capacity Expansion It Won’t End...

March 1st, 2022

“Fortunately, about half of the additional planned capacity has come online this month, with the balance expected by the end of January -- or excuse me, the end of April 2022. Our continuous...

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PRDO: We’ve Seen This Story Before, It’s What the Beginning of the End Looks Like

February 25th, 2022

Over the past 20 years, we have become particularly adept at identifying the early stages of a potential “death spiral” for a for-profit education company.   From a notional perspective, for-profit education...

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HUSQ.B: Time to Cut It Down

February 23rd, 2022

“This shift in relative power from manufacturer to retailer has greatly increased the relative importance of price. This increased the importance of being a low-cost producer and added urgency to our need to achieve our cost goals.” Fred Stratton. Former CEO of Briggs and...

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CWH: “Stress Test” Estimates on Dealer Productivity Suggest a Potential Earnings Floor of $3.50-$4.00/Share

February 23rd, 2022

Over the past 5-years, Marcus Lemonis and his team at CWH achieved a number of accomplishments including: Increased company revenues by more than 50% Expanded CWH’s leadership at the top of RV...

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TRUP: Shift in Guidance Looks to Be a Harbinger of Growth Deceleration

February 17th, 2022

Will TRUP’s 4Q21 earnings conference call be remembered as the event at which the company’s management team signaled to the investment community that enrollment and revenue growth were on the cusp of a major deceleration? In our view, we...

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EXPI: As Housing Tailwinds Turn Into Headwinds Can EXPI Keep the “Downstream” Passive Income and Stock Price Dream...

February 14th, 2022

The last time interest rates were at current levels, EXPI was an off the radar residential real estate services company with a “virtual model” and multi-level marketing style compensation...

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ATGE: This Isn’t Just a COVID19 Problem; Reducing Estimates

February 9th, 2022

ATGE management would like investors to believe that the company’s disastrous 2Q22 results and weak outlook for the remainder of the year are solely a function of the surge in COVID19 case counts over the past 3-4 months.  There is no doubt that...

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OSTK: The SEC’s Approval of the BSTX Exchange Could Represent a Seminal Event in the History of Capital Markets and...

January 28th, 2022

In Russell Napier’s phenomenal book Anatomy of the Bear (which we will likely review again over the weekend), the author suggests that one of the hallmarks of bear markets is that good news...

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OSTK: Something Has to Give - OSTK’s Retail Business Could Be Trading at Less than

January 26th, 2022

If you were to pick two factors over the past 8-12 weeks with which you would never want your company to be associated it would be supposed COVID19 “winner” and tech.  Well as far as...

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ATGE: The Irrational Bid in Corporate America Remains Alive and Well, Now Comes the Hard Part for ATGE

January 24th, 2022

This morning ATGE announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Financial Services division in two separate transactions for a combined purchase price of $1 billion.  First, ACAMS the...

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PRDO: Nelson Finally Steps Down, Don’t Let the Door Hit You….

January 21st, 2022

Yesterday after the close, PRDO announced that Todd Nelson stepped down as President and CEO of PRDO effective 1/20/22. That’s right, no transition period.  This is a meaningful development for PRDO, the higher education industry, and our...

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ATGE: Zombie Company Walking – How ATGE’s Leverage Could Quickly Blow Out to 6.0-7.0x EBITDA

January 21st, 2022

“Starting in the month of June, among our licensed registered nursing student body at Aspen University, working nurses were needed on the front lines for patient care and, frankly, showed clear signs of fatigue. This...

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TREX: How Quickly Can the Channel Go From “Well Stocked” to “Stuffed”?

May 10th, 2022

TREX shares have declined nearly (-60%) thus far this year largely due to a widespread rerating of growth stocks following a near unprecedented increase in interest rates.  Remarkably, even after the enormous decline in TREX shares over...

READ MORE >

ATGE: Management Puts on a Brave Face as Starts Deteriorate

May 6th, 2022

Another quarter and another 20-25 minute earnings conference call where ATGE management attempted to blame COVID19 for all of their demand and operational woes.  There is no doubt that COVID19 has created a significant headwind for demand for nursing...

READ MORE >

CWH: Bears Swimming Against the Tide; When Estimates Go Down and the Stock Goes Up, the Short Interest Starts to Loom...

May 4th, 2022

For the past two years, we have listened to criticism after criticism of Marcus Lemonis and Camping World.   Skeptics typically bring up the following issues when criticizing Marcus, his...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

HUSQ.B

SELL

$60

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$10

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

AYI

SHORT

$50

TREX

SHORT

$36

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

CSGP

SHORT

$100

Some Companies We Follow