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TRUP: The Most Frightening Chart for TRUP Longs; Key Findings from the Latest California “Objection Response” and...

May 16th, 2023

Very few TRUP investors take the time to review the statutory statements from the company’s primary underwriting subsidiary, American Pet Insurance Company (APIC).  We think this is a huge...

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TRUP: California Asks More Questions

May 9th, 2023

On 5/9/23, The California Department of Insurance filed yet ANOTHER Objection Response to Trupanion’s 2023 28% base rate increase request. To put things in perspective, the original rate increase request was filed on 12/6/22.  On 2/14/23, American Pet Insurance...

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TRUP: Contextualizing “Trust” as Investors Wrangle with TRUP’s Capital Incineration and Other Issues, Lowering...

May 5th, 2023

“At Trupanion, we value trust and transparency. These values form the basis of our interactions with all stakeholders, including pet owners, veterinarians and their staff, state regulators,...

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TRUP: Key Observations and Questions from the Latest State Regulatory Filing as a Critical Price Increase Is Placed on...

April 24th, 2023

Maria Ripps, Analyst Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division “Got it. And going back to price increases, I believe there were still a couple of different markets, where they were not...

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HUSQ.B: Gross Margin Pressure Incoming as Inventory Builds

April 19th, 2023

PAA Research’s April 2023 outdoor power equipment dealer survey

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TRUP: First Pets Best, Now TRUP’s Partnerships with AFL and CHWY Are Under Intense Scrutiny from Regulators

April 17th, 2023

“Yes. I mean, at the highest level, this [the decision to fire the CFO, General Counsel, and EVP of Pricing] comes down to decentralization….” Margaret Tooth, President, Trupanion Inc....

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CWH: Inventory Remains the Key Question

April 12th, 2023

PAA Research's Spring 2023 RV Dealer Survey.

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ATGE: Declining NCLEX Scores Could Have Negative Repercussions on Enrollment Growth at Chamberlain

April 5th, 2023

“Looking at our segments, total enrollment at Chamberlain continued to show modest improvement during the quarter, supported by the success of campus-based BSN programs” Stephen Beard, President and CEO...

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TRUP: The Plot Thickens in California

March 24th, 2023

Yesterday, we published a note outlining the details of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Insurance Commissioner in the State of California related to TRUP’s “pricing policies”.  The Insurance Commissioner in California filed an enforcement...

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TRUP: When You Blow Out THREE C-Level Executives In a Single Day, the Road Might Just Lead You to California

March 23rd, 2023

Close your eyes for a moment and imagine a stock with the following dynamics thus far in 2023: The company guided down significantly on both a revenue and EBITDA basis for 2023 The company lost its...

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TRUP: Troubling Details Emerge from the 10-K and American Pet Insurance Company Statutory Statements

March 7th, 2023

It’s kind of remarkable that TRUP shares are down a meager (-5.4%) since the company reported 4Q22 results, delivered disappointing 1Q23 and 2023 guidance, and announced that it was unwinding the relationship with...

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EXPI: When EBITDA in the Best Possible Market is $80MM and ZERO (or worse) in a Downturn, What’s That Business Worth?

March 1st, 2023

Amidst all of the gibberish about “net promoter score”, Bain consulting books, and nonsense technological assertions, there are some core realities related to EXPI that probably should be...

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TREX: Amidst a Rising Tide of Alarming Questions, the Only Certainty Is That Estimates Are Going Lower

February 28th, 2023

I'm pleased to report that, as anticipated, the inventory recalibration was completed by year-end.  With good participation in the early buy season, we entered the year an upcoming season with inventory...

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PRDO: If You Read the 10-K Not the Earnings Release for Guidance, You’ll Know a Cat 5 Storm Could Be Coming to...

February 24th, 2023

“It’s absolutely ridiculous that anyone would buy shares in a company after reading an earnings release instead of the annual report” Charlie Munger (Probably) “As...

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STRA: Three Critical Observations from the Earnings Report of a Secularly Challenged For-Profit Education Company...

February 23rd, 2023

“We had probably the only thing that was a little bit of a surprise is we had a little bit higher bad debt than we expected. That's typical. Now with the benefit of hindsight, when we have...

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CWH: For 2023, Inventory Is All That Matters

February 22nd, 2023

“We said on retail 370,000 to 390,000 is our expectation. Wholesale 325,000 to 350,000.” Brian Michael Hall, CFO, LCI Industries. 2/14/23. 4Q22 Earnings Conf. Call “The one thing that I'm noticing that is different than any other soft period...

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TRUP: The Narrative Cannot Hold When the Business Model Breaks

February 16th, 2023

The year is 2023 and TRUP is no closer to generating profitability than it was when the company went public back in 2014.  It’s a remarkable achievement.  In 2014, TRUP generated Adjusted EBITDA of (-$10MM), not too far off from the meager...

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ATGE: A Storm Is Brewing as ATGE Celebrates Two Decades on a March to Nowhere for Shareholders

February 3rd, 2023

“And I'd also say, with the expansion of our nursing schools going forward, probably is somewhere around an incremental investment of $150 million in '23 compared to what we ran in '22. We didn't call...

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AYI: Customer Incentives Are Growing Rapidly, Price Reductions Could Come Next

January 9th, 2023

Is anyone else tired of hearing the phrase “product vitality” from this management team?  There were 10 references to “product vitality” during AYI’s 1Q23 earnings conference call, which means if you were...

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AYI: PAA Research's 4Q22 Lighting Agent Survey - Here Comes the Slowdown

December 15th, 2022

Attached is a report outlining feedback from lighting agents across the United States. It appears the lighting industry is headed towards a significant slowdown and the pricing gains that have driven growth for the past 18-24 months are fading...

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TRUP: Trying to Solve the California Crisis - TRUP Requests a 28%(!) Base Rate Increase in CA for 2023

December 7th, 2022

“Let me map it out because I know it can be a little difficult. So we had going through the third quarter 7% rate. During the third quarter and into October, we did additional filings, which now brings what we...

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TRUP: A Broken Covenant and Now a Test of Faith

November 4th, 2022

There has been a covenant of sorts between TRUP management and the investment community, at least those that are willing to take a leap of faith on the company’s stock.  TRUP management crafted a narrative around low TAM penetration of pet insurance in the...

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EXPI: All They Do Is Miss, Dilute Shareholders, and Try to Hold the Multi-Level Marketing Scheme Together; Lowering...

November 2nd, 2022

Here are some fun facts: EXPI missed consensus EBITDA expectations in four of the past five quarters 12-months ago the consensus estimate for EXPI’s FY22 EPS was $0.78. We now estimate...

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TREX: Arrogance Is Fatal; Negative Estimate Revisions and Balance Sheet Questions Only Grow More Frequent from Here

November 1st, 2022

“You think you’re better than me?!!” Now former TREX employee to Bryan Fairbanks, President and CEO. Trex Company, Inc. (Probably) Imagine you worked for TREX at their...

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OSTK: The Waiting Is the Hardest Part in this Game of “Survive and Advance”; OSTK Shares Feel Washed Out

October 27th, 2022

“Where’s all the stores? Ain’t Dere no more!” Benny Grunch and the Bunch. WWLTV New Orleans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_dE9oKSN4 NINETEEN.  That’s the...

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UFPI: Just a Question of Timing

October 21st, 2022

Heading into UFPI’s 3Q22 earnings release, we thought the company’s quarterly results would show some early cracks and indicators of significant pricing pressure, volume deceleration, and gross margin compression to come.

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TRUP: The Four Biggest Problems Facing TRUP Right Now

October 10th, 2022

Over the past week, TRUP shares have been noticeably weak, underperforming the broader indices by roughly (-14%).  In the past we would expect a high beta, TAM/growth story like TRUP to generate 5-10% returns in a scenario in which the indices rallied...

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HUSQ.B: Falling Demand and Rising Costs; Lowering Price Objective to $50

September 16th, 2022

Attached please find a report which outlines the findings from our latest survey of outdoor power equipment dealers. We are reducing our estimates for FY23 and FY24.  We have lowered our price objective for HUSQ.B to $50, which is based on a...

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UFPI: When Every Trend Is Going Against You It’s Time to Sell; Setting Price Objective of $45

September 1st, 2022

“We believe UFPI is a great long-term investment. I don't want you to wake up 1 day and say, "I wish that Matt had told me more about that UFPI opportunity." Regret can be tough. So I'm telling you...

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TREX: An Earnings Release and Outlook Hemmingway Would Love, Lowering Price Objective to $18

August 9th, 2022

“By all measures, Trex performed exceedingly well in the second quarter.” Bryan Fairbanks, President and CEO. Trex Company, Inc. 8/8/22. 2Q22 Earnings Conf. Call If you have a “Wall of Fame”...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR