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Observations and Thoughts from the Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. (University of Phoenix) S-1 Filing

September 2nd, 2025

Last Friday, AP VIII Queso Holdings L.P. which will soon be converted into Phoenix Education Partners, Inc. filed an S-1 registration statement for an initial public offering.  Phoenix Education Partners primary...

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SAF Surveys: August 2025

August 29th, 2025

Below please find a link to a report which summarizes the findings from our latest round of SAF Surveys. This month we asked our survey respondents questions about their advertising budgets and marketing strategies in addition to our usual questions related to core KPI's. The report...

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TRUP: Management’s Comments on Pricing Should Really Bother You Just Ask the Nevada Regulators; Former TRUP Execs...

August 14th, 2025

“Yes. I mean our pricing is set for the back half of the year. So, we're not going to be adjusting any rates that our members are going to be seeing right now because we set them around a...

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TRUP: DEAD COMPANY WALKING; Enrollment Growth Collapses Just as TRUP Jacks Up Rates Again; Trust These Executives at...

August 8th, 2025

“We are continuing to work with regulators to get rate. We have around 40% of our book, if not a little bit more, are priced ahead of the curve. So, what I mean by that is pet parents have got...

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Z/ZG: What’s Old Is New Again and That Might Just Be a Good Thing; Line of Sight on Growth Compels Us to Raise Price...

August 7th, 2025

“In our view, Zillow has the potential to be a transformative company in the US housing market….Zillow offers a steady stream of high quality leads and customer relationship management...

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FRPT: A (Likely) Fleeting Relief Rally as Investors Chew on the Possibility that the Company Could Be Ex-Growth;...

August 4th, 2025

Three months ago we posed a simple, yet challenging question: Are the revenue growth issues at FRPT secular or cyclical?  Following the company’s 2Q25 earning release the answer has become...

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RKT: A Tiny Taste of Things to Come as RKT Increasingly Looks Like THE AI Winner in Residential Real Estate

August 1st, 2025

We don’t know about you, but the thoughts of Counterpoint Global and Michael Mauboussin were ringing in our ears yesterday during the RKT 2Q25 earnings conference call. In Counterpoint’s seminal...

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SAF Surveys July 2025: AI Usage Trends and KPI Checks from the Dealer and Independent Retail Channels

July 25th, 2025

Below please find a link to our latest monthly series of SAF Surveys. This month we added a series of checks within a new sector: power sports equipment. In addition, we asked the 100+ dealers and independent...

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PAA Research's July 2025 "Watch List" Has Been Published

July 23rd, 2025

We apologize for the delay in pubishing this quarter's Watch List.  You can read the latest Watch List by click HERE or the link below which will give you access to the full report.  Our goal is to publish this list some time between the 10th-20th...

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TRUP: The Key Questions Facing TRUP as Pricing Continues to Go on “TILT” in a Clear Sign of an Insurance Rate Spiral

July 18th, 2025

“We are continuing to work with regulators to get rate. We have around 40% of our book, if not a little bit more, are priced ahead of the curve. So, what I mean by that is pet parents have got...

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Buyback Outliers: 2Q25 Update

July 1st, 2025

In our first report in which we introduced the Buyback Outliers List in December of last year, we argued that those companies with consistent and sizeable buyback programs typically performed better during market downturns even though the relative outperformance of serial stock...

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"SAF Surveys" June 2025

June 20th, 2025

Below is a link to our latest "SAF Surveys". We conduct these survey EVERY month.  The report includes actionable trade ideas based on the feedback, high level conclusions, and industry specific findings.  We have surveyed approximately 80 dealers and retailers across the...

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The War for Residential Real Estate: A Fierce Battle for the Home Between Z/ZG, CSGP, RKT, and COMP. Time to Go Long...

June 12th, 2025

We are introducing Z/ZG and RKT as long idea and CSGP, FAF, and STC as short ideas. This report is backed by feedback from more than 60 real estate agents and includes a comprehensive analysis of...

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TTC: Steady Execution in a Tepid Environment as Toro Continues to Drive Shareholder Returns; Reiterating Price...

June 5th, 2025

First a little anecdote.  As we searched for a file in our TTC folder this morning, we decided to open up a brief note we published FOURTEEN years ago in the early days of PAA Research. At the...

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TRUP: Trupanion’s California Conundrum Looks Like a Case Study in an Insurance Rate Spiral

May 29th, 2025

“We are continuing to work with regulators to get rate. We have around 40% of our book, if not a little bit more, are priced ahead of the curve. So, what I mean by that is pet parents have got pricing in place that...

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Introducing the "SAF Surveys" - A View From Dealers Across the Industrial Complex

May 16th, 2025

We are introducing a new research product this morning: the "SAF Surveys".  We have conducted a survey of roughly 70 dealers across a variety of industries including: Construction equipment dealers Outdoor power...

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EXPI: When the US Recruitment Engine Falters, You Become an International Growth Story

May 7th, 2025

It’s never a good sign when a supposed leader in the US real estate industry begins the prepared remarks for the conference call with a discussion of market launches in PERU and TURKEY during the quarter. In theory, EXPI...

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FRPT: Secular or Cyclical? That is the Question

May 6th, 2025

Let’s not forget how the year started with Freshpet  The management team always comes off as affable and forthcoming, when things are going well….  Starting back in early January, FRPT management elected not to include a new slide deck as part of...

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TRUP: More of the Same from TRUP as the Company Continues to Hemorrhage Share in the Suddenly SLOWING Pet Insurance...

May 2nd, 2025

If we take one giant step back and remove ourselves from the “weeds” of Trupanion, the one conclusion we can make about the company’s earnings results is that it was simply...

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TRUP: The Key Questions TRUP Faces Heading into 1Q25 Earnings as the Insurance Rate Spiral Is Increasingly Laid Bare

April 30th, 2025

In what can only be described as a pyrrhic victory, we were modestly encouraged by the stock price action in TRUP over the past few weeks.  That warrants an explanation.   For almost a...

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KNSL: Where Pricing, Aggressive Exclusions, and Litigation Prowess Get Confused for Operational Efficiency and...

April 25th, 2025

Imagine our horror over the past 2-3 weeks as the market experiences a crash of sorts in response to the Liberation Day tariffs and investors pile into KNSL of all stocks in a “flight to...

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A BULL FOR ALL SEASONS –THE TORO COMPANY (TTC), Closing out Husqvarna Short Idea with a (-59%) Gain

April 16th, 2025

We are intrroducing the Toro Company (TTC) as a long idea with a $110 Price Objective.  Read on for more....

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CWH: Assessing the Impacts of Tariffs on the RV Industry; PAA Research's Spring 2025 Dealer Survey

April 4th, 2025

Over the past few weeks, we surveyed 20 RV dealers across the country to get a better sense of sales trends throughout the quarter, channel inventory dynamics, and price trends. Additinoally, we asked a number of...

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Buyback Outliers: March 2025 Update

March 20th, 2025

In our first report in which we introduced the Buyback Outliers List, we argued that those companies with consistent and sizeable buyback programs typically performed better during market downturns even though the relative outperformance of serial stock repurchasers compared to the...

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FRPT: Estimates Remain Jarringly High in the Context of Increasingly Clear Signs of Revenue Deceleration (Even at...

February 24th, 2025

There were signs….  Starting back in early January, FRPT management elected not to include a new slide deck as part of its presentation at the ICR Conference. At the time, management...

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TRUP: The Jaws Are Closing Quickly in the “Trupanion Trap”

February 20th, 2025

If you’re still not convinced that price action determines the narrative around any given stock, consider the following changes in how investors think about TRUP:   • Ten weeks ago: Trupanion is a market leader poised to profitably...

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KNSL: Slowing Growth Brings Investors Closer to Seeing KNSL For What the Company Really Is

February 14th, 2025

“Also of note, the appreciation of Kinsale's stock price over the course of 2024 exceeded that of the S&P 500 Index for the eighth time in the last 9 years since our IPO back in...

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PAA Research: The January 2025 PAA Research Watch List Has Been Published

January 28th, 2025

You can find it on the WATCH LIST tab on our website or by clicking the link below.

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PAA Research’s “Five and Dime” List: Up 13% Over the Past 3-Months, 123% Inception to Date; Latest Changes to the...

January 20th, 2025

Approximately two years ago, we introduced our first “Five and Dime” List as part of our regularly published “Watch List”.  In January 2023, we were just a few months...

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TRUP: A Broken Product - State Level Data Puts TRUP’s “Insurance Rate Spiral” in Full Relief as Base Rates Reach...

January 9th, 2025

As far as our work on TRUP is concerned, we were delighted to turn the page on 2024. If you told us that TRUP would witness a massive deceleration in enrollment growth, persistently high churn, and...

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Current Ideas

STC

SHORT

$40

FAF

SHORT

$38

RKT

LONG

$25

CSGP

SHORT

$52

Z

LONG

$108

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

AYI

SHORT

$50

TTC

LONG

$110

KNSL

SELL/SHORT

$230

FRPT

SELL/SHORT

$55

BYON

LONG

$70

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR