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TRUP: Short Sellers Get “CHWYed” Up, the Market Reaction Calculus in Business Terms, Like Aflac, Another Deal of...

December 8th, 2021

This conversation happened more in our heads over the past 24 hours than it did in reality….. Druckenmiller: “Why are you still short this TRUP?” PAA: “It’s a...

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PRDO: Starts Weakness Suggests EPS Power Could Unravel QUICKLY for PRDO, Mapping PRDO’s Huge Cash Uses, Lowering...

November 5th, 2021

Heading into PRDO’s earnings release, we never know what to expect. It is the hallmark of the company to do everything in its power to sustain a mirage of growth, stable enrollment, and...

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EXPI: When the Stock Price Is Your Most Important Fundamental – the SEC Subpoena Version

November 4th, 2021

“On June 1, 2021, the Company received a subpoena issued by the staff of the Division of Enforcement of the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC Staff”) requesting certain documentation and information...

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CWH: At Your Service, Exploring Camping World's $8-$12B Service Revenue Opportunity; RV Dealer Survey Feedback

October 14th, 2021

Camping World investors remain overly obsessed with new RV sales at a time when the company's growth prospects are increasingly tethered to high margin revenue sources such as service, rentals, camping...

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AYI: Downplaying Price Increases When You’re a Supply Chain Disruption Winner

October 6th, 2021

“So some of the backlog will have different impacts of the price increase. So we had our first price increase announced in March, which was impacting late in the fourth quarter, very, very little, and we saw some of that realization...

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AYI: Lighting Agent Survey - How Long Can Pricing Hold Up?

October 5th, 2021

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EXPI/RLGY: Real Estate Wars - The “White Hot” Housing Market Has Masked a RACE to the Bottom Among Residential Real...

August 17th, 2021

The race to the bottom in broker economics.

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PRDO: Borrower Defense to Repayment Claims Could Imperil PRDO’s Cash Balances; What About ATGE?

August 6th, 2021

“The most common types of conduct that might make a borrower eligible for loan relief through borrower defense to repayment discharge are misrepresentations of the truth made by the school or its representatives...

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EXPI: As Good as It Will Ever Get? EXPI is the Poster Child for the Bubble in Real Estate Agents

August 5th, 2021

               “For the Indians, one run on, let’s see, one hit? That’s all we got? One g—damn hit?” Harry Doyle....

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CWH: A Simple Sanity Check Suggests the EBITDA Floor Is Higher Than You Think

August 4th, 2021

For those who think they’re really good at playing this game, we present you the following question: A year ago consensus estimates for FY21 EBITDA for CWH were $293MM.  By tomorrow, we expect consensus EBITDA estimates for CWH for...

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TREX: What is “Normal”? Coming to Grips with Reality at Trex

August 3rd, 2021

“Normal is the wrong name often used for average” Henry S. Haskins On TREX’s 2Q21 earnings conference call there were TWELVE references to “normal”, “normalization”, or “normalized”. ...

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TRUP: Problems, Problems, Problems….. And Then There’s New Jersey

July 29th, 2021

“Easy, compadre. I'm your friend out here, all right?... If you want to throw down, fine. I've got Jack Johnson and Tom O'Leary waiting for you…… Well, guess what? Now this is...

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TRUP: Another Challenging M&A Comp for Trupanion

May 18th, 2021

Over the past 2-3 years there have been two landmark M&A transactions in the pet insurance space.  First, SYF acquired Pets Best in March 2019 for roughly $80MM. No more than a month later, specialty insurance player WTM purchased Embrace for $73MM. ...

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EXPI: Slowing Agent Productivity Gains Are the First (of Many) Red Flags in a White Hot Housing Market; Let the...

May 6th, 2021

Well that was quite the round trip.  No one rings the bell when valuation compression starts, or for that matter when it stops. EXPI shareholders and their agents (one in the same in this case),...

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CWH: Breaking Through the Ceiling Creates a New Floor; Raising Estimates

May 5th, 2021

For the past 6-9 months, every single one of our conversations around CWH revolved around a single question: When will demand collapse?  Put this in the category of “every general fights the last war”.  Even after crushing...

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CWH: The Inventory Advantage, Raising Target to $75, PAA Research's Spring 2021 RV Dealer Survey

April 27th, 2021

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TRUP: When Will the COVID-19 Tailwinds End for TRUP? Other Key Questions Heading into the Company’s 1Q21 Earnings...

April 20th, 2021

What changed? We posed the same question to start 2021 following a year in which TRUP shares rallied more than 230%, despite the company’s continued struggles to grow profitably.  TRUP...

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AYI: When Mix Shift Is Your Gross Margin Expansion Story

April 1st, 2021

“Given our current gross profit margin improvement, we think that we can achieve the gross profit of above 42% for the balance of the fiscal year.” Karen Holcom, Senior VP and CFO, Acuity Brands, Inc. 3/31/21. 2Q21 Earnings Conf. Call For...

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EXPI: As Good As It Will Ever Get? Now EXPI Faces the Struggle of Trying to Become a Real Brokerage Firm

March 12th, 2021

“I think, even starting in early 2020, we really backed off the top line number of 10% gross margin for core brokerage, just because as we learned more about how all this mixes together, it would be tough to...

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OSTK: When Striving for Greatness, Never Bury the Lead

February 25th, 2021

Two weeks ago OSTK shares traded north of $110/share.  OSTK shares have declined (-35%) in just 10-trading days.  This begs one simple question: what the hell happened?  First and foremost, if you’re a longtime follower of OSTK this type of...

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TREX: Wood Pulp and Polyethylene Boards Don’t Grow to the Sky

February 23rd, 2021

TREX has an $11B+ market cap.  In a market full of excess, this singular data point has us shaking our heads day after day.  After all TREX manufactures composite decking from wood pulp and recycled plastic.  Based on the deluge of...

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TRUP: What Changed? Certainly Not TRUP’s Profitability Prospects; Marketing IRR’s Could Collapse in 2021

February 11th, 2021

What changed? That is the one question that has been plaguing us (and many other short sellers) about TRUP for the past 12-months.  What elements of TRUP’s business improved over the past year to...

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PRDO: From the Frying Pan to the Fire – New 90/10 Proposal Represents an Existential Threat to PRDO, Is This...

February 9th, 2021

“We have implemented various measures intended to reduce the percentage of our institution's cash basis revenue attributable to Title IV Program funds, including AIU’s deferred...

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ATGE: The Walden Conundrum and Other Suspect Reasoning

February 3rd, 2021

“Despite the tremendous opportunity at the Company, we have serious concerns about the ability of the Board of Directors (the “Board”) and management team to realize the Company’s true potential, allocate capital appropriately, and...

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OSTK: Accelerating the Evolution of Overstock, Raising Price Objective to $140

January 26th, 2021

“Pelion” – a huge or difficult task. “In Greek mythology, the twins Otus and Ephialtes piled Mount Pelion on Mount Ossa and both on Mount Olympus in an attempt to reach heaven and attack the gods. The word is...

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OSTK: Is Overstock the Cheapest Stock We Follow? Twenty-one Questions for 2021; Raising Price Objective to $128

January 15th, 2021

Overstock.com is a rapidly growing, profitable ecommerce platform generating significant free cash flow that also owns a promising portfolio of blockchain based technology companies.  How rare is that?...

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AYI: Squashing UV-C and Gross Margin Expansion Hopes

January 8th, 2021

“So I am increasingly confident that this [UV-C anti-germicidal lighting] is a long-term product portfolio opportunity, not a point-in-time product portfolio opportunity. None of us can quantify how much that is yet. So good news is it's a -- it appears to...

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AYI: 4Q20 Lighting Agent Survey Suggests Neither UV-C, Nor Biden Can Save the Lighting Industry

December 22nd, 2020

Below please find a link to a powerpoint presentation outlining the results of our latest survey of lighting agents across the country.  

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EXPI: As Good as It Will Ever Get? Someone Needs to Tell EXPI’s New Agents That Downline Opportunities for Passive...

November 12th, 2020

Following a quarter in which EXPI added more than 4,700 agents, generated more than $23.6B in transaction volume, and of course increased the share count by 3MM, there’s really only one...

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CWH: Camping World Shares Are Absurdly Cheap and Ten Other Things We Know for Certain

November 3rd, 2020

Eighty-one cents?! That’s all CWH gained yesterday following a quarter during which the generated 26.9% same store sales growth, delivered 740 bps of gross profit margin expansion, efficiently managed G&A costs, and beat...

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Current Ideas

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$10

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

TREX

SHORT

$36

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR