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HUSQ.B: Falling Demand and Rising Costs; Lowering Price Objective to $50

September 16th, 2022

Attached please find a report which outlines the findings from our latest survey of outdoor power equipment dealers. We are reducing our estimates for FY23 and FY24.  We have lowered our price objective for HUSQ.B to $50, which is based on a...

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UFPI: When Every Trend Is Going Against You It’s Time to Sell; Setting Price Objective of $45

September 1st, 2022

“We believe UFPI is a great long-term investment. I don't want you to wake up 1 day and say, "I wish that Matt had told me more about that UFPI opportunity." Regret can be tough. So I'm telling you...

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TREX: An Earnings Release and Outlook Hemmingway Would Love, Lowering Price Objective to $18

August 9th, 2022

“By all measures, Trex performed exceedingly well in the second quarter.” Bryan Fairbanks, President and CEO. Trex Company, Inc. 8/8/22. 2Q22 Earnings Conf. Call If you have a “Wall of Fame”...

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TRUP: The Narrative Blew Up and the Loss Rate Spiral Could Be Upon Us

August 4th, 2022

Aside from profitless prosperity, there is one thing that TRUP management truly has mastered: narrative.  It’s absolutely remarkable that the company still has a market cap approaching $3.0B when the only thing that TRUP has demonstrated...

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CWH: Where Operational Excellence and Vision Meet Enormous Market Opportunity

August 3rd, 2022

“In our RV end market, we have seen an industry-wide restocking of dealer inventories approaching pre-pandemic levels. We are beginning to see OEM production react accordingly. We currently estimate full year 2022 RV wholesale unit...

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OSTK: If This Is as Bad as It Can Get, OSTK Could Be a Huge Winner in This Game of “Survival of the Fittest”

July 29th, 2022

Truth be told, when we hopped out of bed this morning and quickly reviewed OSTK’s 2Q22 operating results we started to gird ourselves for another day of frustration and grew worried we might see a...

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STRA: Why Is Management Lying About Lead Trends? Maybe It’s to Distract from Awful Earnings; Lowering Price Objective...

July 27th, 2022

“As I said a moment ago, we've seen a significant inflection in demand in our U.S. Higher Education segment. Inquiry volume is up more than 20% from the prior year. And within Strayer...

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TREX: An "Econ 101" Driven Cat 5 Storm of Earnings Destruction Could Be Forming

June 24th, 2022

The attached report details our short thesis on TREX and outlines the feedback we received from our latest survey of decking products dealers.

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TRUP: JAB Goes All in on Pet Insurance Which Could Accelerate TRUP’s Struggles

June 21st, 2022

Yesterday, JAB Holding Company announced the largest acquisition in the history of the pet insurance industry.  Through the transaction, JAB will acquire the Crum & Forster Pet Insurance Group and PetHealth Inc. from Fairfax...

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TREX: How Quickly Can the Channel Go From “Well Stocked” to “Stuffed”?

May 10th, 2022

TREX shares have declined nearly (-60%) thus far this year largely due to a widespread rerating of growth stocks following a near unprecedented increase in interest rates.  Remarkably, even after the enormous decline in TREX shares over...

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ATGE: Management Puts on a Brave Face as Starts Deteriorate

May 6th, 2022

Another quarter and another 20-25 minute earnings conference call where ATGE management attempted to blame COVID19 for all of their demand and operational woes.  There is no doubt that COVID19 has created a significant headwind for demand for nursing...

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CWH: Bears Swimming Against the Tide; When Estimates Go Down and the Stock Goes Up, the Short Interest Starts to Loom...

May 4th, 2022

For the past two years, we have listened to criticism after criticism of Marcus Lemonis and Camping World.   Skeptics typically bring up the following issues when criticizing Marcus, his...

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OSTK: Ten Reasons Things Will Get Better from Here for OSTK and Its Shareholders

April 29th, 2022

We lack imagination as investors.  It is the hallmark of every bull and bear market that we underestimate the upside and cannot fathom the downside for the companies in which we invest long or short.  This statement not only...

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TRUP: Not Now, Not Ever; This Is What the Start of a Broken Growth Story Looks Like

April 29th, 2022

It’s a signature of the human condition: two people can look at the same exact thing and have completely different reactions and descriptions as to what it is.  This is particularly true of works of art whose value is almost...

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TRUP: We’ll Take Your “Kuyashii” and Wish TRUP Shares “Sayonara”; TRUP Lowers Its Growth Objectives Amidst...

April 27th, 2022

Was it really only 5-months ago when TRUP shares surged to $150+ following the announcement that the company forged a partnership with the leading ecommerce platform for pet products, CHWY? ...

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HUSQ.B: No Domo Arigoto Mr. Roboto

April 12th, 2022

We introduced HUSQ.B as a short idea a few weeks ago based on our expectation that the outdoor powere equipment industry has experienced significant demand pull forward, the transition to battery powered products could dilute the company's marigns meaningfully, and demand for...

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CWH: Time to Shine

April 4th, 2022

Our latest RV dealer checks suggest industry demand remains solid while inventory levels have started to normalize. More importantly we think we are moving into an environment were the merits of CWH's strategic growth initiatives introduced over the past 2-3 years should start to shine. ...

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TREX: The Negative Estimate Revision Cycle Begins, In the Face of Unprecedented Capacity Expansion It Won’t End...

March 1st, 2022

“Fortunately, about half of the additional planned capacity has come online this month, with the balance expected by the end of January -- or excuse me, the end of April 2022. Our continuous...

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PRDO: We’ve Seen This Story Before, It’s What the Beginning of the End Looks Like

February 25th, 2022

Over the past 20 years, we have become particularly adept at identifying the early stages of a potential “death spiral” for a for-profit education company.   From a notional perspective, for-profit education...

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HUSQ.B: Time to Cut It Down

February 23rd, 2022

“This shift in relative power from manufacturer to retailer has greatly increased the relative importance of price. This increased the importance of being a low-cost producer and added urgency to our need to achieve our cost goals.” Fred Stratton. Former CEO of Briggs and...

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CWH: “Stress Test” Estimates on Dealer Productivity Suggest a Potential Earnings Floor of $3.50-$4.00/Share

February 23rd, 2022

Over the past 5-years, Marcus Lemonis and his team at CWH achieved a number of accomplishments including: Increased company revenues by more than 50% Expanded CWH’s leadership at the top of RV...

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TRUP: Shift in Guidance Looks to Be a Harbinger of Growth Deceleration

February 17th, 2022

Will TRUP’s 4Q21 earnings conference call be remembered as the event at which the company’s management team signaled to the investment community that enrollment and revenue growth were on the cusp of a major deceleration? In our view, we...

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EXPI: As Housing Tailwinds Turn Into Headwinds Can EXPI Keep the “Downstream” Passive Income and Stock Price Dream...

February 14th, 2022

The last time interest rates were at current levels, EXPI was an off the radar residential real estate services company with a “virtual model” and multi-level marketing style compensation...

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ATGE: This Isn’t Just a COVID19 Problem; Reducing Estimates

February 9th, 2022

ATGE management would like investors to believe that the company’s disastrous 2Q22 results and weak outlook for the remainder of the year are solely a function of the surge in COVID19 case counts over the past 3-4 months.  There is no doubt that...

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OSTK: The SEC’s Approval of the BSTX Exchange Could Represent a Seminal Event in the History of Capital Markets and...

January 28th, 2022

In Russell Napier’s phenomenal book Anatomy of the Bear (which we will likely review again over the weekend), the author suggests that one of the hallmarks of bear markets is that good news...

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OSTK: Something Has to Give - OSTK’s Retail Business Could Be Trading at Less than

January 26th, 2022

If you were to pick two factors over the past 8-12 weeks with which you would never want your company to be associated it would be supposed COVID19 “winner” and tech.  Well as far as...

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ATGE: The Irrational Bid in Corporate America Remains Alive and Well, Now Comes the Hard Part for ATGE

January 24th, 2022

This morning ATGE announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Financial Services division in two separate transactions for a combined purchase price of $1 billion.  First, ACAMS the...

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PRDO: Nelson Finally Steps Down, Don’t Let the Door Hit You….

January 21st, 2022

Yesterday after the close, PRDO announced that Todd Nelson stepped down as President and CEO of PRDO effective 1/20/22. That’s right, no transition period.  This is a meaningful development for PRDO, the higher education industry, and our...

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ATGE: Zombie Company Walking – How ATGE’s Leverage Could Quickly Blow Out to 6.0-7.0x EBITDA

January 21st, 2022

“Starting in the month of June, among our licensed registered nursing student body at Aspen University, working nurses were needed on the front lines for patient care and, frankly, showed clear signs of fatigue. This...

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AYI: The Topping Process Starts with Growth Quality Issues

January 7th, 2022

We imagine that many AYI bulls are highly disappointed with the stock price action in response to what appeared to be on the surface a “blowout” quarter for the company.  However, upon further review, perhaps the quarter wasn’t as strong...

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Current Ideas

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$10

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR