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CWH: Building the "Costco of Camping" - Our Letter to Buffett and Munger

October 13th, 2020

We sent the attached slide deck along with individual letters to Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. This is the second time we have sent a letter to Warren Buffett. Eleven years ago, we sent a letter to Mr. Buffett to illuminate some of the...

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EXPI: When Stock Price Is Your Only Fundamental, It’s Time To Sell; Introducing EXPI as a Short Idea with a Price...

September 28th, 2020

The stock market has been extraordinarily kind to “fake it until you make it” stories that operate in large total addressable markets (TAM).  If you run a long/short book in any...

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CWH: What a Successful Launch of the “AirBnB” for the RV Space Could Mean for Camping World – An Absolute Game...

August 26th, 2020

“As we think about the possibilities of it, it wouldn't surprise me if we -- it wouldn't surprise me if we stayed away from the rental business, but we looked at alternative technology...

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ATGE: The March to Nowhere Continues; Revised Estimates

August 19th, 2020

“What I mentioned before was not so much decline in ACAMS, but our desire to see it grow a lot faster, given what we know are the opportunities…. So from our perspective, we're at an inflection point at ACAMS, growth has plateaued a...

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TRUP: Trupanion's Market Share Losses Accelerated in 2Q20

August 11th, 2020

At 9AM this morning we will present at the third Contrarian Investor Conference along with several other noteworthy investors and analysts.  You can register for the conference by clicking HERE. We wanted to pass along our slide deck on Trupanion which...

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PRDO: Is AIU Unraveling Before Our Eyes While the Walls Close in on CTU?

August 7th, 2020

“I did read the article. I thought -- again, it was -- some of the arguments, again, I felt were very outdated, and frankly, some of them are just not -- again, I don't think really applied, but that's my opinion. But regarding the...

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CWH: Camping World Is Getting Back to Its Compounding/Market Share Gain Roots, $3.00+ in EPS Is in Sight, Raising Price...

August 6th, 2020

“So we have 2 goals going forward; grow our total file size [customers] profitably, by the way; and grow the average spend per member. That is our business model, and it always has been. We did...

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TRUP: See If You Can Spot the Misleading Statements or Outright Lies, The Problem with TRUP’s Cashless Other Revenue...

August 5th, 2020

“Men acquire a particular quality by constantly acting a particular way... you become just by performing just actions, temperate by performing temperate actions, brave by performing brave...

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TREX: The Unsustainable Trend? TREX Is Starting to Lose Market Share Just as the Industry Ramps Capacity Meaningfully

August 4th, 2020

The strength in sales of products related to the “home” since early March truly has been something to behold. This is particularly true of items that can be used outdoors or can improve the...

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STRA: The Writing Is on the Wall as Strayer Faces Its “Minsky Moment”; Lowering Price Objective to $56

July 30th, 2020

“ Strayer's leading indicators have remained relatively stable and strong for the past 8 weeks, essentially staying well above last year's targets on a quarter-to-date basis. What portion of this...

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OSTK: The Flywheel Is Really Cranking Now and the Impact of the GSA Contract Could Be Bigger Than COVID-19; Raising...

July 30th, 2020

Overstock.com is a rapidly growing, profitable ecommerce platform generating significant free cash flow that also owns a promising portfolio of blockchain based technology companies.  How rare...

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CWH: PAA Research's Summer 2020 RV Dealer Survey - The Power of CWH's Business Model Still Remains Underappreciated,...

July 29th, 2020

We recently conducted a survey of more than 30 RV dealers across the country. The attached report includes the feedback from those dealer checks.  We think the power of CWH's business model...

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TRUP: Dead Company Walking?

July 21st, 2020

It might seem outlandish to call a company whose stock has appreciated more than 35% this year and sports a market cap of close to $1.8B as a “dead company walking”.  However, very little has changed related to TRUP over the past 2-3 months. The company remains a...

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AYI: Things Will Likely Get Considerably Worse Before They Get Better (If Ever)

June 30th, 2020

“Acuity is selling at levels below the importers.” Lighting Agent. June 2020 Even though AYI beat our EPS estimates handily in the quarter, the primary discussion surrounding the company’s business and dynamics...

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PAA Research's Summer 2020 Lighting Agent Survey: AYI's Pending Earnings Devastation - When a Secularly Challenged...

June 26th, 2020

The attached report outlines the feedback from our latest survey of lighting agents.  The economic downturn has exacerbated what already were significant secular challenges for AYI.  Sales...

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OSTK: The Evolution of Overstock; Raising Estimates and Price Objective to $45

June 12th, 2020

“Extinction is the rule. Survival is the exception.” Carl Sagan On a day in which renewed concerns about the impact of COVID19 on the US economy drove the S&P 500 more than (-5%) lower the question of which...

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CWH: Demand Turns on a Dime and Now We Might Have Line of Sight to $400MM in EBITDA

May 8th, 2020

“As we sit here today, I'm proud to tell you that last weekend, our Friday, Saturday and Sunday in May was the biggest weekend in our company's history, period, end of story, in all aspects, every part of our...

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ATGE: The Company’s 3Q20 Margin Miracle Is a Mirage; Don’t Be Too Quick to Celebrate Chamberlain Start Growth,...

May 6th, 2020

“The increase in segment operating income is the result of strong Chamberlain enrollment trends and efforts to increase efficiency and reduce travel and discretionary spend, partially offset by...

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PRDO: What Is the Status of GI Bill Funding for AIU and CTU Students? What Happened in New York? Other Key Questions...

May 6th, 2020

We wanted to quickly go through some key questions that PRDO faces as we approach the company’s 1Q20 earnings release and conference call.  Sadly, we doubt that the company will address...

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TREX: And Now We Wait

May 5th, 2020

We’re going to keep it fairly short in this note.  Heading into the quarter, the magnitude of bullish sentiment surrounding TREX was simply baffling. Many analysts and investors appeared to be CONVINCED that strong feedback about decking related sales at Home Depot and Lowe’s...

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OSTK: Sitting With “Pocket Aces”, All OSTK Needs to Do Is Hold Serve; Raising Estimates (Meaningfully)

May 1st, 2020

               “Aces are larger than life and greater than mountains” Mike Caro Neither the most ardent bull nor the...

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CWH: Social Distancing from Anywhere – Time to Go Long Camping World Holdings (CWH) with a $20 Price Objective

April 29th, 2020

We are introducing Camping World Holdings (CWH) as a long idea with a $20 Price Objective.  Please see the attached slide deck which outlines our investment thesis and feedback from our survey of more...

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TREX: The Hard Realities for Composite Decking Manufacturers in a Post Covid-19 World

April 21st, 2020

Attached please find a report which outlines the feedback from a survey of decking dealers that we conducted over the first two weeks of April.

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CM/RY: Should the “Big 6” Canadian Banks Raise Capital Right Now?

April 8th, 2020

“Risk weighted assets for the Big 6 banks, and CM and RY in particular are massively understated in our view.  CM and RY are 26 and 23 times levered based on gross loan exposure to total Tier 1 capital.  Given their substantial...

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AYI: What’s the Cost of a Digital Transformation? For Shareholders, It Could Be a Lot; Our Revised Estimates

April 3rd, 2020

               “The recent revenue trends, however, will not fix themselves. There has been industry deflation. We have additional...

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STRA: This Is Not Your Uncle’s Higher Ed Market; Secular Headwinds and Now a Demand Shock, Time to Sell with a $63...

March 31st, 2020

“Given that more than 95% of our students are already taking all of their classes online and given that we have the capability to operate our company with our entire workforce working remotely,...

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AYI: A perfect storm of demand destruction and continued competition from Asian imports has emerged; Lowering AYI Price...

March 27th, 2020

This note represents the first of what will be a series of reports that we will publish in the coming weeks backed by surveys across a variety of industries.   While there are many...

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OSTK: In a World Where Stocks Continually Get Cheaper, OSTK Now Trading at a Discount to Cash, Could Be One of the...

March 16th, 2020

“So the biggest thing is, we've effectively imposed a view that we want to drive more leverage on the ad cost. So that would manifest to the ad cost as a percentage of revenue. So as you...

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PRDO: “90/10” Kill Zone? Potential Loss of VA Funding Could Create Massive Regulatory Issues for CTU/ AIU as Well...

March 9th, 2020

In a press release today, the U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs announced that it would disapprove the enrollment of new GI Bill students at the following five institutions: University of...

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TREX: The CEO Exits Stage Right at the Worst Possible Time; More Atrocious Earnings Quality from TREX

February 25th, 2020

“We estimate that composites account for 19% of the North American total decking market and that the enhanced products have further expanded our addressable market to about 60% of the overall decking market...

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Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$10

CWH

LONG

$64

OSTK

LONG

$110

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$8

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

AYI

SHORT

$50

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$63

BIG

SHORT

$28

TREX

SHORT

$36

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

TTC

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

CSGP

SHORT

$100

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR