OSTK: The SEC’s Approval of the BSTX Exchange Could Represent a Seminal Event in the History of Capital Markets and...

In Russell Napier’s phenomenal book Anatomy of the Bear (which we will likely review again over the weekend), the author suggests that one of the hallmarks of bear markets is that good news...

OSTK: Something Has to Give - OSTK’s Retail Business Could Be Trading at Less than

If you were to pick two factors over the past 8-12 weeks with which you would never want your company to be associated it would be supposed COVID19 “winner” and tech.  Well as far as...

ATGE: The Irrational Bid in Corporate America Remains Alive and Well, Now Comes the Hard Part for ATGE

This morning ATGE announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Financial Services division in two separate transactions for a combined purchase price of $1 billion.  First, ACAMS the...

PRDO: Nelson Finally Steps Down, Don’t Let the Door Hit You….

Yesterday after the close, PRDO announced that Todd Nelson stepped down as President and CEO of PRDO effective 1/20/22. That’s right, no transition period.  This is a meaningful development for PRDO, the higher education industry, and our...

ATGE: Zombie Company Walking – How ATGE’s Leverage Could Quickly Blow Out to 6.0-7.0x EBITDA

“Starting in the month of June, among our licensed registered nursing student body at Aspen University, working nurses were needed on the front lines for patient care and, frankly, showed clear signs of fatigue. This...

AYI: The Topping Process Starts with Growth Quality Issues

We imagine that many AYI bulls are highly disappointed with the stock price action in response to what appeared to be on the surface a “blowout” quarter for the company.  However, upon further review, perhaps the quarter wasn’t as strong...

TRUP: Short Sellers Get “CHWYed” Up, the Market Reaction Calculus in Business Terms, Like Aflac, Another Deal of...

This conversation happened more in our heads over the past 24 hours than it did in reality….. Druckenmiller: “Why are you still short this TRUP?” PAA: “It’s a...

PRDO: Starts Weakness Suggests EPS Power Could Unravel QUICKLY for PRDO, Mapping PRDO’s Huge Cash Uses, Lowering...

Heading into PRDO’s earnings release, we never know what to expect. It is the hallmark of the company to do everything in its power to sustain a mirage of growth, stable enrollment, and...

EXPI: When the Stock Price Is Your Most Important Fundamental – the SEC Subpoena Version

“On June 1, 2021, the Company received a subpoena issued by the staff of the Division of Enforcement of the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC Staff”) requesting certain documentation and information...

CWH: At Your Service, Exploring Camping World's $8-$12B Service Revenue Opportunity; RV Dealer Survey Feedback

Camping World investors remain overly obsessed with new RV sales at a time when the company's growth prospects are increasingly tethered to high margin revenue sources such as service, rentals, camping...

AYI: Downplaying Price Increases When You’re a Supply Chain Disruption Winner

“So some of the backlog will have different impacts of the price increase. So we had our first price increase announced in March, which was impacting late in the fourth quarter, very, very little, and we saw some of that realization...

AYI: Lighting Agent Survey - How Long Can Pricing Hold Up?

EXPI/RLGY: Real Estate Wars - The “White Hot” Housing Market Has Masked a RACE to the Bottom Among Residential Real...

The race to the bottom in broker economics.

PRDO: Borrower Defense to Repayment Claims Could Imperil PRDO’s Cash Balances; What About ATGE?

“The most common types of conduct that might make a borrower eligible for loan relief through borrower defense to repayment discharge are misrepresentations of the truth made by the school or its representatives...

EXPI: As Good as It Will Ever Get? EXPI is the Poster Child for the Bubble in Real Estate Agents

               “For the Indians, one run on, let’s see, one hit? That’s all we got? One g—damn hit?” Harry Doyle....

CWH: A Simple Sanity Check Suggests the EBITDA Floor Is Higher Than You Think

For those who think they’re really good at playing this game, we present you the following question: A year ago consensus estimates for FY21 EBITDA for CWH were $293MM.  By tomorrow, we expect consensus EBITDA estimates for CWH for...

TREX: What is “Normal”? Coming to Grips with Reality at Trex

“Normal is the wrong name often used for average” Henry S. Haskins On TREX’s 2Q21 earnings conference call there were TWELVE references to “normal”, “normalization”, or “normalized”. ...

TRUP: Problems, Problems, Problems….. And Then There’s New Jersey

“Easy, compadre. I'm your friend out here, all right?... If you want to throw down, fine. I've got Jack Johnson and Tom O'Leary waiting for you…… Well, guess what? Now this is...

TRUP: Another Challenging M&A Comp for Trupanion

Over the past 2-3 years there have been two landmark M&A transactions in the pet insurance space.  First, SYF acquired Pets Best in March 2019 for roughly $80MM. No more than a month later, specialty insurance player WTM purchased Embrace for $73MM. ...

EXPI: Slowing Agent Productivity Gains Are the First (of Many) Red Flags in a White Hot Housing Market; Let the...

Well that was quite the round trip.  No one rings the bell when valuation compression starts, or for that matter when it stops. EXPI shareholders and their agents (one in the same in this case),...