Log In

“Great service and wonderful research. Thank you.”
- Senior Analyst at a multi-billion dollar hedge fund

Recent Reports

CWH: What a Successful Launch of the “AirBnB” for the RV Space Could Mean for Camping World – An Absolute Game...

August 26th, 2020

“As we think about the possibilities of it, it wouldn't surprise me if we -- it wouldn't surprise me if we stayed away from the rental business, but we looked at alternative technology...

READ MORE >

ATGE: The March to Nowhere Continues; Revised Estimates

August 19th, 2020

“What I mentioned before was not so much decline in ACAMS, but our desire to see it grow a lot faster, given what we know are the opportunities…. So from our perspective, we're at an inflection point at ACAMS, growth has plateaued a...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Trupanion's Market Share Losses Accelerated in 2Q20

August 11th, 2020

At 9AM this morning we will present at the third Contrarian Investor Conference along with several other noteworthy investors and analysts.  You can register for the conference by clicking HERE. We wanted to pass along our slide deck on Trupanion which...

READ MORE >

PRDO: Is AIU Unraveling Before Our Eyes While the Walls Close in on CTU?

August 7th, 2020

“I did read the article. I thought -- again, it was -- some of the arguments, again, I felt were very outdated, and frankly, some of them are just not -- again, I don't think really applied, but that's my opinion. But regarding the...

READ MORE >

CWH: Camping World Is Getting Back to Its Compounding/Market Share Gain Roots, $3.00+ in EPS Is in Sight, Raising Price...

August 6th, 2020

“So we have 2 goals going forward; grow our total file size [customers] profitably, by the way; and grow the average spend per member. That is our business model, and it always has been. We did...

READ MORE >

TRUP: See If You Can Spot the Misleading Statements or Outright Lies, The Problem with TRUP’s Cashless Other Revenue...

August 5th, 2020

“Men acquire a particular quality by constantly acting a particular way... you become just by performing just actions, temperate by performing temperate actions, brave by performing brave...

READ MORE >

TREX: The Unsustainable Trend? TREX Is Starting to Lose Market Share Just as the Industry Ramps Capacity Meaningfully

August 4th, 2020

The strength in sales of products related to the “home” since early March truly has been something to behold. This is particularly true of items that can be used outdoors or can improve the...

READ MORE >

STRA: The Writing Is on the Wall as Strayer Faces Its “Minsky Moment”; Lowering Price Objective to $56

July 30th, 2020

“ Strayer's leading indicators have remained relatively stable and strong for the past 8 weeks, essentially staying well above last year's targets on a quarter-to-date basis. What portion of this...

READ MORE >

OSTK: The Flywheel Is Really Cranking Now and the Impact of the GSA Contract Could Be Bigger Than COVID-19; Raising...

July 30th, 2020

Overstock.com is a rapidly growing, profitable ecommerce platform generating significant free cash flow that also owns a promising portfolio of blockchain based technology companies.  How rare...

READ MORE >

CWH: PAA Research's Summer 2020 RV Dealer Survey - The Power of CWH's Business Model Still Remains Underappreciated,...

July 29th, 2020

We recently conducted a survey of more than 30 RV dealers across the country. The attached report includes the feedback from those dealer checks.  We think the power of CWH's business model...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Dead Company Walking?

July 21st, 2020

It might seem outlandish to call a company whose stock has appreciated more than 35% this year and sports a market cap of close to $1.8B as a “dead company walking”.  However, very little has changed related to TRUP over the past 2-3 months. The company remains a...

READ MORE >

AYI: Things Will Likely Get Considerably Worse Before They Get Better (If Ever)

June 30th, 2020

“Acuity is selling at levels below the importers.” Lighting Agent. June 2020 Even though AYI beat our EPS estimates handily in the quarter, the primary discussion surrounding the company’s business and dynamics...

READ MORE >

PAA Research's Summer 2020 Lighting Agent Survey: AYI's Pending Earnings Devastation - When a Secularly Challenged...

June 26th, 2020

The attached report outlines the feedback from our latest survey of lighting agents.  The economic downturn has exacerbated what already were significant secular challenges for AYI.  Sales...

READ MORE >

OSTK: The Evolution of Overstock; Raising Estimates and Price Objective to $45

June 12th, 2020

“Extinction is the rule. Survival is the exception.” Carl Sagan On a day in which renewed concerns about the impact of COVID19 on the US economy drove the S&P 500 more than (-5%) lower the question of which...

READ MORE >

CWH: Demand Turns on a Dime and Now We Might Have Line of Sight to $400MM in EBITDA

May 8th, 2020

“As we sit here today, I'm proud to tell you that last weekend, our Friday, Saturday and Sunday in May was the biggest weekend in our company's history, period, end of story, in all aspects, every part of our...

READ MORE >

ATGE: The Company’s 3Q20 Margin Miracle Is a Mirage; Don’t Be Too Quick to Celebrate Chamberlain Start Growth,...

May 6th, 2020

“The increase in segment operating income is the result of strong Chamberlain enrollment trends and efforts to increase efficiency and reduce travel and discretionary spend, partially offset by...

READ MORE >

PRDO: What Is the Status of GI Bill Funding for AIU and CTU Students? What Happened in New York? Other Key Questions...

May 6th, 2020

We wanted to quickly go through some key questions that PRDO faces as we approach the company’s 1Q20 earnings release and conference call.  Sadly, we doubt that the company will address...

READ MORE >

TREX: And Now We Wait

May 5th, 2020

We’re going to keep it fairly short in this note.  Heading into the quarter, the magnitude of bullish sentiment surrounding TREX was simply baffling. Many analysts and investors appeared to be CONVINCED that strong feedback about decking related sales at Home Depot and Lowe’s...

READ MORE >

OSTK: Sitting With “Pocket Aces”, All OSTK Needs to Do Is Hold Serve; Raising Estimates (Meaningfully)

May 1st, 2020

               “Aces are larger than life and greater than mountains” Mike Caro Neither the most ardent bull nor the...

READ MORE >

CWH: Social Distancing from Anywhere – Time to Go Long Camping World Holdings (CWH) with a $20 Price Objective

April 29th, 2020

We are introducing Camping World Holdings (CWH) as a long idea with a $20 Price Objective.  Please see the attached slide deck which outlines our investment thesis and feedback from our survey of more...

READ MORE >

CWH: What a Successful Launch of the “AirBnB” for the RV Space Could Mean for Camping World – An Absolute Game...

August 26th, 2020

“As we think about the possibilities of it, it wouldn't surprise me if we -- it wouldn't surprise me if we stayed away from the rental business, but we looked at alternative technology...

READ MORE >

ATGE: The March to Nowhere Continues; Revised Estimates

August 19th, 2020

“What I mentioned before was not so much decline in ACAMS, but our desire to see it grow a lot faster, given what we know are the opportunities…. So from our perspective, we're at an inflection point at ACAMS, growth has plateaued a...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Trupanion's Market Share Losses Accelerated in 2Q20

August 11th, 2020

At 9AM this morning we will present at the third Contrarian Investor Conference along with several other noteworthy investors and analysts.  You can register for the conference by clicking HERE. We wanted to pass along our slide deck on Trupanion which...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

CWH

LONG

$64

OSTK

LONG

$110

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$8

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

AYI

SHORT

$50

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$63

TREX

SHORT

$36

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

CSGP

SHORT

$100

Some Companies We Follow