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- Senior Analyst at a multi-billion dollar hedge fund

Recent Reports

EXPI: As Good as It Will Ever Get? Someone Needs to Tell EXPI’s New Agents That Downline Opportunities for Passive...

November 12th, 2020

Following a quarter in which EXPI added more than 4,700 agents, generated more than $23.6B in transaction volume, and of course increased the share count by 3MM, there’s really only one...

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CWH: Camping World Shares Are Absurdly Cheap and Ten Other Things We Know for Certain

November 3rd, 2020

Eighty-one cents?! That’s all CWH gained yesterday following a quarter during which the generated 26.9% same store sales growth, delivered 740 bps of gross profit margin expansion, efficiently managed G&A costs, and beat...

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TREX: The Four Things That Matter Now That the Setup for Shorts Has Improved Dramatically

November 3rd, 2020

There are better companies whose stocks have been absolutely destroyed over the past few weeks for posting the type of upside that TREX delivered in the third quarter.  Yes, the company generated strong sales growth and...

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TRUP: All Sizzle No Steak; At Trupanion It’s Always Optics Over Operating Profit Improvement, the AFL Deal Is No...

October 30th, 2020

Each and every day for the past year, we thought we would walk into our offices in the morning to the news of a sizeable stock offering from TRUP.  After all, the company’s regulatory...

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CWH: Building the "Costco of Camping" - Our Letter to Buffett and Munger

October 13th, 2020

We sent the attached slide deck along with individual letters to Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger. This is the second time we have sent a letter to Warren Buffett. Eleven years ago, we sent a letter to Mr. Buffett to illuminate some of the...

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EXPI: When Stock Price Is Your Only Fundamental, It’s Time To Sell; Introducing EXPI as a Short Idea with a Price...

September 28th, 2020

The stock market has been extraordinarily kind to “fake it until you make it” stories that operate in large total addressable markets (TAM).  If you run a long/short book in any...

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CWH: What a Successful Launch of the “AirBnB” for the RV Space Could Mean for Camping World – An Absolute Game...

August 26th, 2020

“As we think about the possibilities of it, it wouldn't surprise me if we -- it wouldn't surprise me if we stayed away from the rental business, but we looked at alternative technology...

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ATGE: The March to Nowhere Continues; Revised Estimates

August 19th, 2020

“What I mentioned before was not so much decline in ACAMS, but our desire to see it grow a lot faster, given what we know are the opportunities…. So from our perspective, we're at an inflection point at ACAMS, growth has plateaued a...

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TRUP: Trupanion's Market Share Losses Accelerated in 2Q20

August 11th, 2020

At 9AM this morning we will present at the third Contrarian Investor Conference along with several other noteworthy investors and analysts.  You can register for the conference by clicking HERE. We wanted to pass along our slide deck on Trupanion which...

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PRDO: Is AIU Unraveling Before Our Eyes While the Walls Close in on CTU?

August 7th, 2020

“I did read the article. I thought -- again, it was -- some of the arguments, again, I felt were very outdated, and frankly, some of them are just not -- again, I don't think really applied, but that's my opinion. But regarding the...

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CWH: Camping World Is Getting Back to Its Compounding/Market Share Gain Roots, $3.00+ in EPS Is in Sight, Raising Price...

August 6th, 2020

“So we have 2 goals going forward; grow our total file size [customers] profitably, by the way; and grow the average spend per member. That is our business model, and it always has been. We did...

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TRUP: See If You Can Spot the Misleading Statements or Outright Lies, The Problem with TRUP’s Cashless Other Revenue...

August 5th, 2020

“Men acquire a particular quality by constantly acting a particular way... you become just by performing just actions, temperate by performing temperate actions, brave by performing brave...

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TREX: The Unsustainable Trend? TREX Is Starting to Lose Market Share Just as the Industry Ramps Capacity Meaningfully

August 4th, 2020

The strength in sales of products related to the “home” since early March truly has been something to behold. This is particularly true of items that can be used outdoors or can improve the...

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STRA: The Writing Is on the Wall as Strayer Faces Its “Minsky Moment”; Lowering Price Objective to $56

July 30th, 2020

“ Strayer's leading indicators have remained relatively stable and strong for the past 8 weeks, essentially staying well above last year's targets on a quarter-to-date basis. What portion of this...

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OSTK: The Flywheel Is Really Cranking Now and the Impact of the GSA Contract Could Be Bigger Than COVID-19; Raising...

July 30th, 2020

Overstock.com is a rapidly growing, profitable ecommerce platform generating significant free cash flow that also owns a promising portfolio of blockchain based technology companies.  How rare...

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CWH: PAA Research's Summer 2020 RV Dealer Survey - The Power of CWH's Business Model Still Remains Underappreciated,...

July 29th, 2020

We recently conducted a survey of more than 30 RV dealers across the country. The attached report includes the feedback from those dealer checks.  We think the power of CWH's business model...

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TRUP: Dead Company Walking?

July 21st, 2020

It might seem outlandish to call a company whose stock has appreciated more than 35% this year and sports a market cap of close to $1.8B as a “dead company walking”.  However, very little has changed related to TRUP over the past 2-3 months. The company remains a...

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AYI: Things Will Likely Get Considerably Worse Before They Get Better (If Ever)

June 30th, 2020

“Acuity is selling at levels below the importers.” Lighting Agent. June 2020 Even though AYI beat our EPS estimates handily in the quarter, the primary discussion surrounding the company’s business and dynamics...

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PAA Research's Summer 2020 Lighting Agent Survey: AYI's Pending Earnings Devastation - When a Secularly Challenged...

June 26th, 2020

The attached report outlines the feedback from our latest survey of lighting agents.  The economic downturn has exacerbated what already were significant secular challenges for AYI.  Sales...

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OSTK: The Evolution of Overstock; Raising Estimates and Price Objective to $45

June 12th, 2020

“Extinction is the rule. Survival is the exception.” Carl Sagan On a day in which renewed concerns about the impact of COVID19 on the US economy drove the S&P 500 more than (-5%) lower the question of which...

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EXPI: As Good as It Will Ever Get? Someone Needs to Tell EXPI’s New Agents That Downline Opportunities for Passive...

November 12th, 2020

Following a quarter in which EXPI added more than 4,700 agents, generated more than $23.6B in transaction volume, and of course increased the share count by 3MM, there’s really only one...

READ MORE >

CWH: Camping World Shares Are Absurdly Cheap and Ten Other Things We Know for Certain

November 3rd, 2020

Eighty-one cents?! That’s all CWH gained yesterday following a quarter during which the generated 26.9% same store sales growth, delivered 740 bps of gross profit margin expansion, efficiently managed G&A costs, and beat...

READ MORE >

TREX: The Four Things That Matter Now That the Setup for Shorts Has Improved Dramatically

November 3rd, 2020

There are better companies whose stocks have been absolutely destroyed over the past few weeks for posting the type of upside that TREX delivered in the third quarter.  Yes, the company generated strong sales growth and...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$10

CWH

LONG

$64

OSTK

LONG

$110

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$8

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

AYI

SHORT

$50

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$63

TREX

SHORT

$36

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

CSGP

SHORT

$100

Some Companies We Follow