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- Senior Analyst at a multi-billion dollar hedge fund

Recent Reports

TRUP: The Most Frightening Chart for TRUP Longs; Key Findings from the Latest California “Objection Response” and...

May 16th, 2023

Very few TRUP investors take the time to review the statutory statements from the company’s primary underwriting subsidiary, American Pet Insurance Company (APIC).  We think this is a huge...

READ MORE >

TRUP: California Asks More Questions

May 9th, 2023

On 5/9/23, The California Department of Insurance filed yet ANOTHER Objection Response to Trupanion’s 2023 28% base rate increase request. To put things in perspective, the original rate increase request was filed on 12/6/22.  On 2/14/23, American Pet Insurance...

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TRUP: Contextualizing “Trust” as Investors Wrangle with TRUP’s Capital Incineration and Other Issues, Lowering...

May 5th, 2023

“At Trupanion, we value trust and transparency. These values form the basis of our interactions with all stakeholders, including pet owners, veterinarians and their staff, state regulators,...

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TRUP: Key Observations and Questions from the Latest State Regulatory Filing as a Critical Price Increase Is Placed on...

April 24th, 2023

Maria Ripps, Analyst Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division “Got it. And going back to price increases, I believe there were still a couple of different markets, where they were not...

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HUSQ.B: Gross Margin Pressure Incoming as Inventory Builds

April 19th, 2023

PAA Research’s April 2023 outdoor power equipment dealer survey

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TRUP: First Pets Best, Now TRUP’s Partnerships with AFL and CHWY Are Under Intense Scrutiny from Regulators

April 17th, 2023

“Yes. I mean, at the highest level, this [the decision to fire the CFO, General Counsel, and EVP of Pricing] comes down to decentralization….” Margaret Tooth, President, Trupanion Inc....

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CWH: Inventory Remains the Key Question

April 12th, 2023

PAA Research's Spring 2023 RV Dealer Survey.

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ATGE: Declining NCLEX Scores Could Have Negative Repercussions on Enrollment Growth at Chamberlain

April 5th, 2023

“Looking at our segments, total enrollment at Chamberlain continued to show modest improvement during the quarter, supported by the success of campus-based BSN programs” Stephen Beard, President and CEO...

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TRUP: The Plot Thickens in California

March 24th, 2023

Yesterday, we published a note outlining the details of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Insurance Commissioner in the State of California related to TRUP’s “pricing policies”.  The Insurance Commissioner in California filed an enforcement...

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TRUP: When You Blow Out THREE C-Level Executives In a Single Day, the Road Might Just Lead You to California

March 23rd, 2023

Close your eyes for a moment and imagine a stock with the following dynamics thus far in 2023: The company guided down significantly on both a revenue and EBITDA basis for 2023 The company lost its...

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TRUP: Troubling Details Emerge from the 10-K and American Pet Insurance Company Statutory Statements

March 7th, 2023

It’s kind of remarkable that TRUP shares are down a meager (-5.4%) since the company reported 4Q22 results, delivered disappointing 1Q23 and 2023 guidance, and announced that it was unwinding the relationship with...

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EXPI: When EBITDA in the Best Possible Market is $80MM and ZERO (or worse) in a Downturn, What’s That Business Worth?

March 1st, 2023

Amidst all of the gibberish about “net promoter score”, Bain consulting books, and nonsense technological assertions, there are some core realities related to EXPI that probably should be...

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TREX: Amidst a Rising Tide of Alarming Questions, the Only Certainty Is That Estimates Are Going Lower

February 28th, 2023

I'm pleased to report that, as anticipated, the inventory recalibration was completed by year-end.  With good participation in the early buy season, we entered the year an upcoming season with inventory...

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PRDO: If You Read the 10-K Not the Earnings Release for Guidance, You’ll Know a Cat 5 Storm Could Be Coming to...

February 24th, 2023

“It’s absolutely ridiculous that anyone would buy shares in a company after reading an earnings release instead of the annual report” Charlie Munger (Probably) “As...

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STRA: Three Critical Observations from the Earnings Report of a Secularly Challenged For-Profit Education Company...

February 23rd, 2023

“We had probably the only thing that was a little bit of a surprise is we had a little bit higher bad debt than we expected. That's typical. Now with the benefit of hindsight, when we have...

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CWH: For 2023, Inventory Is All That Matters

February 22nd, 2023

“We said on retail 370,000 to 390,000 is our expectation. Wholesale 325,000 to 350,000.” Brian Michael Hall, CFO, LCI Industries. 2/14/23. 4Q22 Earnings Conf. Call “The one thing that I'm noticing that is different than any other soft period...

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TRUP: The Narrative Cannot Hold When the Business Model Breaks

February 16th, 2023

The year is 2023 and TRUP is no closer to generating profitability than it was when the company went public back in 2014.  It’s a remarkable achievement.  In 2014, TRUP generated Adjusted EBITDA of (-$10MM), not too far off from the meager...

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ATGE: A Storm Is Brewing as ATGE Celebrates Two Decades on a March to Nowhere for Shareholders

February 3rd, 2023

“And I'd also say, with the expansion of our nursing schools going forward, probably is somewhere around an incremental investment of $150 million in '23 compared to what we ran in '22. We didn't call...

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AYI: Customer Incentives Are Growing Rapidly, Price Reductions Could Come Next

January 9th, 2023

Is anyone else tired of hearing the phrase “product vitality” from this management team?  There were 10 references to “product vitality” during AYI’s 1Q23 earnings conference call, which means if you were...

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AYI: PAA Research's 4Q22 Lighting Agent Survey - Here Comes the Slowdown

December 15th, 2022

Attached is a report outlining feedback from lighting agents across the United States. It appears the lighting industry is headed towards a significant slowdown and the pricing gains that have driven growth for the past 18-24 months are fading...

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TRUP: The Most Frightening Chart for TRUP Longs; Key Findings from the Latest California “Objection Response” and...

May 16th, 2023

Very few TRUP investors take the time to review the statutory statements from the company’s primary underwriting subsidiary, American Pet Insurance Company (APIC).  We think this is a huge...

READ MORE >

TRUP: California Asks More Questions

May 9th, 2023

On 5/9/23, The California Department of Insurance filed yet ANOTHER Objection Response to Trupanion’s 2023 28% base rate increase request. To put things in perspective, the original rate increase request was filed on 12/6/22.  On 2/14/23, American Pet Insurance...

READ MORE >

TRUP: Contextualizing “Trust” as Investors Wrangle with TRUP’s Capital Incineration and Other Issues, Lowering...

May 5th, 2023

“At Trupanion, we value trust and transparency. These values form the basis of our interactions with all stakeholders, including pet owners, veterinarians and their staff, state regulators,...

READ MORE >

Current Ideas

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

TREX

SHORT

$18

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

OSTK

LONG

$128

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

AYI

SHORT

$50

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

Z

SHORT

$14.00

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

CSGP

SHORT

$100

Some Companies We Follow