EXPI: When the US Recruitment Engine Falters, You Become an International Growth Story

It’s never a good sign when a supposed leader in the US real estate industry begins the prepared remarks for the conference call with a discussion of market launches in PERU and TURKEY during the quarter. In theory, EXPI...

FRPT: Secular or Cyclical? That is the Question

Let’s not forget how the year started with Freshpet  The management team always comes off as affable and forthcoming, when things are going well….  Starting back in early January, FRPT management elected not to include a new slide deck as part of...

CWH: Assessing the Impacts of Tariffs on the RV Industry; PAA Research's Spring 2025 Dealer Survey

Over the past few weeks, we surveyed 20 RV dealers across the country to get a better sense of sales trends throughout the quarter, channel inventory dynamics, and price trends. Additinoally, we asked a number of...

FRPT: Estimates Remain Jarringly High in the Context of Increasingly Clear Signs of Revenue Deceleration (Even at...

There were signs….  Starting back in early January, FRPT management elected not to include a new slide deck as part of its presentation at the ICR Conference. At the time, management...

EXPI: Dead Company Walking? EXPI Desperately Raises Agent Comp AGAIN as Multi-Level Marketing Economics Start to Unravel

“When someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time” - Maya Angelou   Imagine a company that SLASHED prices on its core product four times in a period of less...

FRPT: A More Detailed Look at FRPT Raises More Questions Than Answers

This is a lengthy follow-up report to our initial note on Freshpet, Inc.

FRPT: Questionable Economics While Entering the Wrong Side of the “S-Curve”; Time to Get Short with a Price...

“Freshpet strengthens the bond between people and our pets so that we both live longer, healthier and happier lives while being kind to the planet” Freshpet Investor Presentation...

TRUP: The Inevitability of It All as TRUP Management Faces Deterioration in the “Sinister Six” KPIs

It’s been a quiet couple of months since the abrupt short squeeze (orchestrated) in TRUP shares in mid-to-late May.  Anecdotally, inbound calls on the name have subsided and the stock has bounced between...

EXPI: Desperate Times Call For Desperate Measures as Shareholders Are Forced to Foot the Bill to Keep the MLM Comp...

For the past week, we’ve been wondering why EXPI shares rallied roughly 20% following the company’s 1Q24 earnings release. Yes the results were better than expected but the KPIs, notably...

CWH: Stable Sales and Clean Channel Inventories

The following report outlines our long thesis on CWH as well as the feedback from our latest survey of independent RV dealers across the country.

EXPI: The Minsky Moment Arrives for EXPI as Agents Seek Greener Pastures; Will the Company Ever Growth Agent Count...

The “Minsky moment” has finally arrived for EXPI, as the company’s agent count declined for the first time in history.  Never forget, for EXPI’s AGENTS it’s always...

CWH: And Now Comes the Growth Phase, Albeit Slow at the Beginning

“The truth is, for 2023 the only metric that matters for CWH and the RV industry at large is INVENTORY.  Appropriate inventory channel management preserves economics for everyone in the space and positions the industry for growth once again...

OSTK: The Winds of Change Are Whipping Across the Peace Coliseum

“Again, we covered a lot and provided more color and guidance than we usually do. In that spirit, I want to remind you that we are here today to discuss our financial results and the progress we made integrating Bed Bath & Beyond. We appreciate...

CWH: Setting the Stage for the Next Cycle - PAA Research's Fall 2023 RV Dealer Survey

In our view there are four issues that are paramount for CWH shares and that will dictate how the stock trades over the short term 1.How much will demand pull forward in 2020-1H22 impact sales of RVs going forward?  The RV...

EXPI: Management Starts to Panic as Agent Losses to Upstarts Mount; Watch Out for LPT Realty

“I was at eXp for 3 years, made ICON Agent every year, but the opportunity to build a big downline at eXp is long gone. I went to LPT Realty and have grown from 30 agents to almost 300 in one year. Best thing I could of...

EXPI: Concerns About Agent Quality and the Erosion of Downline Revenues Should Be Paramount as the Battle for Talent...

Perhaps sell-side analysts and investors still don’t understand the true nature of EXPI’s business. There’s a reason this company has missed EBITDA expectations SEVEN out of the...

CWH: Success Managing Inventory in 2023 Sets the Stage for Growth in 2024 and Beyond

“And so we feel like the channel is very, very clean right now…. And there's been tremendous discipline. But we're encouraged and optimistic as it relates to really the cleanliness of the inventories and the weeks...

EXPI: When EBITDA in the Best Possible Market is $80MM and ZERO (or worse) in a Downturn, What’s That Business Worth?

Amidst all of the gibberish about “net promoter score”, Bain consulting books, and nonsense technological assertions, there are some core realities related to EXPI that probably should be...

CWH: For 2023, Inventory Is All That Matters

“We said on retail 370,000 to 390,000 is our expectation. Wholesale 325,000 to 350,000.” Brian Michael Hall, CFO, LCI Industries. 2/14/23. 4Q22 Earnings Conf. Call “The one thing that I'm noticing that is different than any other soft period...

EXPI: All They Do Is Miss, Dilute Shareholders, and Try to Hold the Multi-Level Marketing Scheme Together; Lowering...

Here are some fun facts: EXPI missed consensus EBITDA expectations in four of the past five quarters 12-months ago the consensus estimate for EXPI’s FY22 EPS was $0.78. We now estimate...

CWH: Bears Swimming Against the Tide; When Estimates Go Down and the Stock Goes Up, the Short Interest Starts to Loom...

For the past two years, we have listened to criticism after criticism of Marcus Lemonis and Camping World.   Skeptics typically bring up the following issues when criticizing Marcus, his...

CWH: Time to Shine

Our latest RV dealer checks suggest industry demand remains solid while inventory levels have started to normalize. More importantly we think we are moving into an environment were the merits of CWH's strategic growth initiatives introduced over the past 2-3 years should start to shine. ...

CWH: “Stress Test” Estimates on Dealer Productivity Suggest a Potential Earnings Floor of $3.50-$4.00/Share

Over the past 5-years, Marcus Lemonis and his team at CWH achieved a number of accomplishments including: Increased company revenues by more than 50% Expanded CWH’s leadership at the top of RV...

EXPI: When the Stock Price Is Your Most Important Fundamental – the SEC Subpoena Version

“On June 1, 2021, the Company received a subpoena issued by the staff of the Division of Enforcement of the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC Staff”) requesting certain documentation and information...

CWH: At Your Service, Exploring Camping World's $8-$12B Service Revenue Opportunity; RV Dealer Survey Feedback

Camping World investors remain overly obsessed with new RV sales at a time when the company's growth prospects are increasingly tethered to high margin revenue sources such as service, rentals, camping...

EXPI: As Good as It Will Ever Get? EXPI is the Poster Child for the Bubble in Real Estate Agents

               “For the Indians, one run on, let’s see, one hit? That’s all we got? One g—damn hit?” Harry Doyle....

CWH: A Simple Sanity Check Suggests the EBITDA Floor Is Higher Than You Think

For those who think they’re really good at playing this game, we present you the following question: A year ago consensus estimates for FY21 EBITDA for CWH were $293MM.  By tomorrow, we expect consensus EBITDA estimates for CWH for...

EXPI: Slowing Agent Productivity Gains Are the First (of Many) Red Flags in a White Hot Housing Market; Let the...

Well that was quite the round trip.  No one rings the bell when valuation compression starts, or for that matter when it stops. EXPI shareholders and their agents (one in the same in this case),...

CWH: Breaking Through the Ceiling Creates a New Floor; Raising Estimates

For the past 6-9 months, every single one of our conversations around CWH revolved around a single question: When will demand collapse?  Put this in the category of “every general fights the last war”.  Even after crushing...

CWH: The Inventory Advantage, Raising Target to $75, PAA Research's Spring 2021 RV Dealer Survey