“I think it's -- the work that's being done in our underwriting team to accurately price for risk. There's a lot of work that's going into the evaluation of business for self...
READ MORE >“And so I think each quarter, I would just continue to reiterate from the guidance I provided previously is that the baseline here is that our reserves -- Stage 1 and 2 reserves will grow in line with...
READ MORE >Heading into earnings season for the Big 6 Canadian banks, we were almost certain that a great deal of the discussion on the analyst conference calls would be centered around loan performance in...
READ MORE >“Yes, because of forward looking, some of the economic scenarios have moderated. So our residential, despite the growth in the portfolio, some of that provision was released” Bradley Kotush. Home Capital Group CFO. 1Q19 Earnings Conf. Call....
READ MORE >Over the past few weeks, we conducted a survey of more than 250 real estate agents across Canada. Click on the link below to view our presentation which outlines our research on the Canadian housing market at a high level and the critical findings from our...
READ MORE >“As you know, what drives our provisioning for our performing loans really has to do with the changes that we make to scenarios and to our economic outlook. So it really depends, sort of, quarter-to-quarter how our...
READ MORE >“In the case of the IFRS 9 guidance on performing, there's a lot of assumptions that go into what falls into the performing and it could be anything from your assessment of volatility to...
READ MORE >“One thing I do want to mention though that we learned for the recession as well is you have to remember the nature of our portfolio. Where we are typically a bit of a higher risk more of a near-prime portfolio, it...
READ MORE >For several years now, we have wondered aloud what HCG’s financial profile would look like in a scenario in which the company was forced to introduce true underwriting rigor to its mortgage origination...
READ MORE >“So the original 10% was related to what we thought or anticipated the B-20 impact would be. So that was on that part of the business. When we take a look at the second half ,we continue to see that there will be origination...
READ MORE >We hope you will consider this report for your weekend reading list. Over the past few weeks we surveyed more than 300 real estate agents in Canada. The attached presentation outlines the feedback we received from those agents...
READ MORE >“Against this backdrop, management and the Board are reassessing the corporate strategy and are focused on finalizing the Company’s long-term strategy during the first half of 2018 to help grow the business, create...
READ MORE >The gravity of this statement from The Wire’s Omar Little is not lost on us. Time and time again in the two and half years that we have been following the Canadian housing market investors have suggested to...
READ MORE >Meet the new Boss, same as the old Boss? When Yousry Bissada steps up to the mic today to discuss the performance of HCG during the first three months of his stewardship, we’re almost certain...
READ MORE >Are HCG investors really better off than they were three months ago? At that time, HCG faced a liquidity crisis that the company narrowly survived. The stock price, which many would argue...
READ MORE >In what can only be described as a shocking development to most participants in the Canadian financial ecosystem, HCG announced late last night that Berkshire Hathaway will provide the company with a...
READ MORE >HCG reported 1Q17 adjusted EPS of….. Just kidding. Make no mistake the entity known as Home Capital Group and its primary lending subsidiary, Home Trust no longer exist. As we argued a few...
READ MORE >“But I can't end the call without a little ditty that someone passed on to me of how people in the 19th century dealt with shorts. And the little ditty goes something like this. He who sells what isn't his'n, must...
READ MORE >“Our customers have shown tremendous courage and we’re matching that by sticking with them to the best of our best ability. We believe that working with customers to help get them to a...
READ MORE >It’s been an interesting start to 2017 for HCG. The stock is down a meager (-5.0%) YTD, which belies the drastic change in investor sentiment around the company. Several major brokerage firms have downgraded HCG shares over the past 4-6...
READ MORE >“As cooler weather starts driving up heating costs, Calgary distress centres are finding more people who once earned steady incomes are now struggling to pay their bills and seeking relief with...
READ MORE >We recently conducted a survey of 148 mortgage brokers located across Canada. The key findings from our survey include: Home price weaknes is becoming more broad based The underlying bid for housing remains...
READ MORE >Will Monday, October 3, 2016 be remembered as the day that the housing market in Ontario peaked? Maybe. In a move that appears to have shaken the Canadian housing market to its core (or at least rattled a few branches), Minister of Finance, Bill Morneau announced a...
READ MORE >HCG is desperate. How do we know this? Well certainly in this case actions speak louder than words. Consider the following steps the company has taken over the past 6-12 months to shore up...
READ MORE >The continued sharp decline in oil prices over the last couple of years has had a detrimental effect on the Alberta economy, resulting in several high-value provisions and writeoffs in our commercial portfolio, predominantly within the energy...
READ MORE >We recently conducted a survey of approximately 230 real estate agents in Canada. The attached presentation summarizes our key findings from the survey.
READ MORE >In the strongest housing market in the history of Ontario while taking provisions for credit losses as close to zero as possible, HCG still missed consensus 1Q16 earnings expectations....
READ MORE >On some level you have to simply admire the recklessness of HCG’s management team. After all, over the past three months, the company: 1) reported earnings that fell well short of...
READ MORE >"So let's talk about oil and gas. So, earlier Marianne mentioned our intention to increase our reserves for 2016 to reflect current market fundamentals. So, at the end of 2015 for the Commercial Bank, we held a 6% allowance as part of that effort we are going to – we...
READ MORE >In case you were wondering what business looks like on the ground, or in this particular case the “air” in Alberta, here’s an important comment from the CEO of Westjet (Canada’s second...
READ MORE >SELL
$50
LONG
$110
SELL/SHORT
$230
SELL/SHORT
$55
LONG
$70
SELL/SHORT
$4
SELL/SHORT
$45
SHORT
$18
SELL/SHORT
$5
SELL/SHORT
$42
LONG
$75
SELL/SHORT
$50
SELL/SHORT
$50
LONG
$5.50
SHORT
$50
SHORT
$28
LONG
$65
LONG
$37
PAIR TRADE
$10
PAIR TRADE
$30
LONG
$35
SHORT
$35
SELL/SHORT
$10
SHORT
$101
SHORT
$15
SHORT
$0
SHORT
$9
SHORT
$0
PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC
25%
SHORT
$14.00
SHORT
$22
SHORT
$15
SHORT
$20
SHORT
$31
SHORT
$35
SHORT
$30
PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR
25%
SHORT
$100
LONG
$8
LONG
$20
SHORT
$22
PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP
40%
LONG
$35
SHORT
$275
SHORT
$0