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Z/ZG: Focus on the Signals, Not the Noise

February 11th, 2026

f you told us that FY26 and FY27 revenue estimates for Zillow would be higher on a 1, 3, 6, and 12-month basis and the stock would be down close to (-40%) over the past 6-months, we wouldn’t have believed you.  Zillow shares have been under siege for the past...

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Z/ZG/CSGP: The Rental Property Manager View

December 23rd, 2025

The report below summarizes current trends in the residential rental property market and feedback from our proprietary survey of rental property managers across the country.  In 2026, we expect vacancy rates to increase and net effective rents to soften. This should...

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Z/ZG/CSGP: Google Enters the Real Estate Listings Market AGAIN (Maybe) in an Age of Listings Information Ubiquity; How...

December 15th, 2025

“More than ever, home buyers are starting their search online, and we want to make it easier for every one of you to find the home of your dreams. Searching on Google for Seattle real estate or...

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Z/ZG: Steady Execution in the Core as New Product Rollout Accelerates, a Closer Look at Zillow Pro

October 31st, 2025

Zillow shares are flat more or less on a YTD basis and now trade (-15%) below where the stock did roughly 5-years ago.  Remember those days? The absurdities of the iBuying initiative were in full swing and rates were...

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Z/ZG/RKT/CSGP: Details on Today’s Rental Property Marketing Industry Following a Curious Action from the FTC Against...

October 1st, 2025

“We were disappointed that we were not able to close our proposed acquisition of RentPath but believe our time and money was ultimately very well spent in the process. We and RentPath...

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Z/ZG: What’s Old Is New Again and That Might Just Be a Good Thing; Line of Sight on Growth Compels Us to Raise Price...

August 7th, 2025

“In our view, Zillow has the potential to be a transformative company in the US housing market….Zillow offers a steady stream of high quality leads and customer relationship management...

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RKT: A Tiny Taste of Things to Come as RKT Increasingly Looks Like THE AI Winner in Residential Real Estate

August 1st, 2025

We don’t know about you, but the thoughts of Counterpoint Global and Michael Mauboussin were ringing in our ears yesterday during the RKT 2Q25 earnings conference call. In Counterpoint’s seminal...

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BYON: Only Four Things Matter Now and It Starts With Execution

October 25th, 2024

“Don't shut it off. I'm warning you.”  Peter Venkman. Ghostbusters. Reitman, Ivan. Performances by Bill Murray. Columbia-Delphi Pictures. 1984 Our journey in BYON over the past 4-5 years has been for brief periods of time...

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BYON: The Beginning of Beyond

May 8th, 2024

We’re exhausted, so if you’re reading this and you’ve been a long time BYON shareholder then we know that you’re beyond spent.  We initially wrote up BYON/OSTK nearly 5-yaers ago. In that time, the stock crossed $100 on three separate occasions, doubled off its...

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EXPI/HOUS/RDFN/RMAX/Z/ZG/CSGP/DOUG/COMP: Winners and Losers From the Proposed NAR Settlement; 10 Things That WILL...

March 21st, 2024

Last Friday was a rough trading day in the residential real estate services space for ardent supporters of the efficient market hypothesis. After all, the original case against the National...

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OSTK: The Good, the Bad, and the Pathway to Massive Shareholder Value Creation

September 22nd, 2023

Following OSTK over the past 4-years has been nothing short of exhausting. Over the past 6-12 months, we have grown increasingly disappointed and frustrated with OSTK’s execution miscues, market share losses, poorly crafted investor...

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OSTK: The Waiting Is the Hardest Part in this Game of “Survive and Advance”; OSTK Shares Feel Washed Out

October 27th, 2022

“Where’s all the stores? Ain’t Dere no more!” Benny Grunch and the Bunch. WWLTV New Orleans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_dE9oKSN4 NINETEEN.  That’s the...

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OSTK: If This Is as Bad as It Can Get, OSTK Could Be a Huge Winner in This Game of “Survival of the Fittest”

July 29th, 2022

Truth be told, when we hopped out of bed this morning and quickly reviewed OSTK’s 2Q22 operating results we started to gird ourselves for another day of frustration and grew worried we might see a...

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OSTK: Ten Reasons Things Will Get Better from Here for OSTK and Its Shareholders

April 29th, 2022

We lack imagination as investors.  It is the hallmark of every bull and bear market that we underestimate the upside and cannot fathom the downside for the companies in which we invest long or short.  This statement not only...

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OSTK: The SEC’s Approval of the BSTX Exchange Could Represent a Seminal Event in the History of Capital Markets and...

January 28th, 2022

In Russell Napier’s phenomenal book Anatomy of the Bear (which we will likely review again over the weekend), the author suggests that one of the hallmarks of bear markets is that good news...

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OSTK: Something Has to Give - OSTK’s Retail Business Could Be Trading at Less than

January 26th, 2022

If you were to pick two factors over the past 8-12 weeks with which you would never want your company to be associated it would be supposed COVID19 “winner” and tech.  Well as far as...

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EXPI/RLGY: Real Estate Wars - The “White Hot” Housing Market Has Masked a RACE to the Bottom Among Residential Real...

August 17th, 2021

The race to the bottom in broker economics.

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EXPI: As Good As It Will Ever Get? Now EXPI Faces the Struggle of Trying to Become a Real Brokerage Firm

March 12th, 2021

“I think, even starting in early 2020, we really backed off the top line number of 10% gross margin for core brokerage, just because as we learned more about how all this mixes together, it would be tough to...

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OSTK: When Striving for Greatness, Never Bury the Lead

February 25th, 2021

Two weeks ago OSTK shares traded north of $110/share.  OSTK shares have declined (-35%) in just 10-trading days.  This begs one simple question: what the hell happened?  First and foremost, if you’re a longtime follower of OSTK this type of...

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OSTK: Accelerating the Evolution of Overstock, Raising Price Objective to $140

January 26th, 2021

“Pelion” – a huge or difficult task. “In Greek mythology, the twins Otus and Ephialtes piled Mount Pelion on Mount Ossa and both on Mount Olympus in an attempt to reach heaven and attack the gods. The word is...

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OSTK: Is Overstock the Cheapest Stock We Follow? Twenty-one Questions for 2021; Raising Price Objective to $128

January 15th, 2021

Overstock.com is a rapidly growing, profitable ecommerce platform generating significant free cash flow that also owns a promising portfolio of blockchain based technology companies.  How rare is that?...

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EXPI: When Stock Price Is Your Only Fundamental, It’s Time To Sell; Introducing EXPI as a Short Idea with a Price...

September 28th, 2020

The stock market has been extraordinarily kind to “fake it until you make it” stories that operate in large total addressable markets (TAM).  If you run a long/short book in any...

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OSTK: The Flywheel Is Really Cranking Now and the Impact of the GSA Contract Could Be Bigger Than COVID-19; Raising...

July 30th, 2020

Overstock.com is a rapidly growing, profitable ecommerce platform generating significant free cash flow that also owns a promising portfolio of blockchain based technology companies.  How rare...

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OSTK: The Evolution of Overstock; Raising Estimates and Price Objective to $45

June 12th, 2020

“Extinction is the rule. Survival is the exception.” Carl Sagan On a day in which renewed concerns about the impact of COVID19 on the US economy drove the S&P 500 more than (-5%) lower the question of which...

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OSTK: Sitting With “Pocket Aces”, All OSTK Needs to Do Is Hold Serve; Raising Estimates (Meaningfully)

May 1st, 2020

               “Aces are larger than life and greater than mountains” Mike Caro Neither the most ardent bull nor the...

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OSTK: In a World Where Stocks Continually Get Cheaper, OSTK Now Trading at a Discount to Cash, Could Be One of the...

March 16th, 2020

“So the biggest thing is, we've effectively imposed a view that we want to drive more leverage on the ad cost. So that would manifest to the ad cost as a percentage of revenue. So as you...

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Z/ZG: Bob Seger and the Yield Curve – When the Cyclical Is Confused as the Secular

February 20th, 2020

“And I guess I lost my way There were oh so many roads I was living to run and running to live Never worried about paying or even how much I owed” Seger, Bob. “Against the Wind”. Against the Wind....

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OSTK: Is Anyone Paying Attention? Taking a Closer Look at tZERO’s Monetization Model

November 25th, 2019

               “In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Benjamin Graham This oft...

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OSTK: The End of the Post Patrick Purge? OSTK Shares Now Trade at a 50%+ Discount To Our Estimate of Current...

November 13th, 2019

We thought we knew what we were getting into when we wrote up OSTK as a long idea less than two months ago. Since that time, shares have crashed more than (-50%) – obviously we made some...

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OSTK: With the “Byrne” Overhang Eliminated and a Plethora of Potential Positive Catalysts Ahead, Time to Go Long

September 19th, 2019

Before we get into the issue of the day, we wanted to provide some perspective on how we’re thinking about OSTK based on a similar investment idea we introduced roughly 8-years ago.  The...

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Current Ideas

COMP

SELL/SHORT

$3.50

LOPE

SELL/SHORT

$106

TREX

SHORT

$18

Z

LONG

$126

STC

SHORT

$40

FAF

SHORT

$38

RKT

LONG

$25

CSGP

SHORT

$52

HUSQ.B

SELL

$50

AYI

SHORT

$50

TTC

LONG

$110

KNSL

SELL/SHORT

$230

FRPT

SELL/SHORT

$55

BYON

LONG

$70

EXPI

SELL/SHORT

$4

UFPI

SELL/SHORT

$45

PRDO

SELL/SHORT

$5

STRA

SELL/SHORT

$42

CWH

LONG

$75

CM

SELL/SHORT

$50

RY

SELL/SHORT

$50

ARC

LONG

$5.50

BIG

SHORT

$28

WWE

LONG

$65

XOXO

LONG

$37

RLGY

PAIR TRADE

$10

RDFN

PAIR TRADE

$30

BCO

LONG

$35

ING.PA

SHORT

$35

TRUP

SELL/SHORT

$10

CTC

SHORT

$101

ATGE

SHORT

$15

HCG.TO

SHORT

$0

RON.TO

SHORT

$9

ESI

SHORT

$0

BGG

PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC

25%

NA.TO

SHORT

$22

ZU

SHORT

$15

TRLA

SHORT

$20

MCRS

SHORT

$31

APOL

SHORT

$35

OPEN

SHORT

$30

KNL

PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR

25%

GCA

LONG

$8

IPSU

LONG

$20

MLHR

SHORT

$22

LOOP

PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP

40%

THQI

LONG

$35

WPO

SHORT

$275

COCO

SHORT

$0

HNI

SIG

RGR