f you told us that FY26 and FY27 revenue estimates for Zillow would be higher on a 1, 3, 6, and 12-month basis and the stock would be down close to (-40%) over the past 6-months, we wouldn’t have believed you. Zillow shares have been under siege for the past...
READ MORE >The report below summarizes current trends in the residential rental property market and feedback from our proprietary survey of rental property managers across the country. In 2026, we expect vacancy rates to increase and net effective rents to soften. This should...
READ MORE >“More than ever, home buyers are starting their search online, and we want to make it easier for every one of you to find the home of your dreams. Searching on Google for Seattle real estate or...
READ MORE >Zillow shares are flat more or less on a YTD basis and now trade (-15%) below where the stock did roughly 5-years ago. Remember those days? The absurdities of the iBuying initiative were in full swing and rates were...
READ MORE >“We were disappointed that we were not able to close our proposed acquisition of RentPath but believe our time and money was ultimately very well spent in the process. We and RentPath...
READ MORE >“In our view, Zillow has the potential to be a transformative company in the US housing market….Zillow offers a steady stream of high quality leads and customer relationship management...
READ MORE >We don’t know about you, but the thoughts of Counterpoint Global and Michael Mauboussin were ringing in our ears yesterday during the RKT 2Q25 earnings conference call. In Counterpoint’s seminal...
READ MORE >“Don't shut it off. I'm warning you.” Peter Venkman. Ghostbusters. Reitman, Ivan. Performances by Bill Murray. Columbia-Delphi Pictures. 1984 Our journey in BYON over the past 4-5 years has been for brief periods of time...
READ MORE >We’re exhausted, so if you’re reading this and you’ve been a long time BYON shareholder then we know that you’re beyond spent. We initially wrote up BYON/OSTK nearly 5-yaers ago. In that time, the stock crossed $100 on three separate occasions, doubled off its...
READ MORE >Last Friday was a rough trading day in the residential real estate services space for ardent supporters of the efficient market hypothesis. After all, the original case against the National...
READ MORE >Following OSTK over the past 4-years has been nothing short of exhausting. Over the past 6-12 months, we have grown increasingly disappointed and frustrated with OSTK’s execution miscues, market share losses, poorly crafted investor...
READ MORE >“Where’s all the stores? Ain’t Dere no more!” Benny Grunch and the Bunch. WWLTV New Orleans https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gb_dE9oKSN4 NINETEEN. That’s the...
READ MORE >Truth be told, when we hopped out of bed this morning and quickly reviewed OSTK’s 2Q22 operating results we started to gird ourselves for another day of frustration and grew worried we might see a...
READ MORE >We lack imagination as investors. It is the hallmark of every bull and bear market that we underestimate the upside and cannot fathom the downside for the companies in which we invest long or short. This statement not only...
READ MORE >In Russell Napier’s phenomenal book Anatomy of the Bear (which we will likely review again over the weekend), the author suggests that one of the hallmarks of bear markets is that good news...
READ MORE >If you were to pick two factors over the past 8-12 weeks with which you would never want your company to be associated it would be supposed COVID19 “winner” and tech. Well as far as...
READ MORE >The race to the bottom in broker economics.
READ MORE >“I think, even starting in early 2020, we really backed off the top line number of 10% gross margin for core brokerage, just because as we learned more about how all this mixes together, it would be tough to...
READ MORE >Two weeks ago OSTK shares traded north of $110/share. OSTK shares have declined (-35%) in just 10-trading days. This begs one simple question: what the hell happened? First and foremost, if you’re a longtime follower of OSTK this type of...
READ MORE >“Pelion” – a huge or difficult task. “In Greek mythology, the twins Otus and Ephialtes piled Mount Pelion on Mount Ossa and both on Mount Olympus in an attempt to reach heaven and attack the gods. The word is...
READ MORE >Overstock.com is a rapidly growing, profitable ecommerce platform generating significant free cash flow that also owns a promising portfolio of blockchain based technology companies. How rare is that?...
READ MORE >The stock market has been extraordinarily kind to “fake it until you make it” stories that operate in large total addressable markets (TAM). If you run a long/short book in any...
READ MORE >Overstock.com is a rapidly growing, profitable ecommerce platform generating significant free cash flow that also owns a promising portfolio of blockchain based technology companies. How rare...
READ MORE >“Extinction is the rule. Survival is the exception.” Carl Sagan On a day in which renewed concerns about the impact of COVID19 on the US economy drove the S&P 500 more than (-5%) lower the question of which...
READ MORE >“Aces are larger than life and greater than mountains” Mike Caro Neither the most ardent bull nor the...
READ MORE >“So the biggest thing is, we've effectively imposed a view that we want to drive more leverage on the ad cost. So that would manifest to the ad cost as a percentage of revenue. So as you...
READ MORE >“And I guess I lost my way There were oh so many roads I was living to run and running to live Never worried about paying or even how much I owed” Seger, Bob. “Against the Wind”. Against the Wind....
READ MORE >“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Benjamin Graham This oft...
READ MORE >We thought we knew what we were getting into when we wrote up OSTK as a long idea less than two months ago. Since that time, shares have crashed more than (-50%) – obviously we made some...
READ MORE >Before we get into the issue of the day, we wanted to provide some perspective on how we’re thinking about OSTK based on a similar investment idea we introduced roughly 8-years ago. The...
READ MORE >SELL/SHORT
$3.50
SELL/SHORT
$106
SHORT
$18
LONG
$126
SHORT
$40
SHORT
$38
LONG
$25
SHORT
$52
SELL
$50
SHORT
$50
LONG
$110
SELL/SHORT
$230
SELL/SHORT
$55
LONG
$70
SELL/SHORT
$4
SELL/SHORT
$45
SELL/SHORT
$5
SELL/SHORT
$42
LONG
$75
SELL/SHORT
$50
SELL/SHORT
$50
LONG
$5.50
SHORT
$28
LONG
$65
LONG
$37
PAIR TRADE
$10
PAIR TRADE
$30
LONG
$35
SHORT
$35
SELL/SHORT
$10
SHORT
$101
SHORT
$15
SHORT
$0
SHORT
$9
SHORT
$0
PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC
25%
SHORT
$22
SHORT
$15
SHORT
$20
SHORT
$31
SHORT
$35
SHORT
$30
PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR
25%
LONG
$8
LONG
$20
SHORT
$22
PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP
40%
LONG
$35
SHORT
$275
SHORT
$0