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TREX: Always Consider the Source -Trust this Management Team at Your Own Peril

October 31st, 2023

“I am feeling more positive about the Trex consumer today than I was feeling a year ago” Bryan Fairbanks, President and CEO. Trex Company, Inc. 10/30/23. 3Q23 Earnings Conf. Call Imagine having the unmitigated gall to...

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OSTK: The Winds of Change Are Whipping Across the Peace Coliseum

October 26th, 2023

“Again, we covered a lot and provided more color and guidance than we usually do. In that spirit, I want to remind you that we are here today to discuss our financial results and the progress we made integrating Bed Bath & Beyond. We appreciate...

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TRUP: Negative Estimate Revisions Incoming as Rising Churn, Weaker Demand, Accelerated Run-Off at Pets Best, and...

October 19th, 2023

“And we expect currently that, that will be fully rolled off by the end of next year. We are still enrolling new business for Pets Best as we sit here today. So there is still a lot...

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CWH: Setting the Stage for the Next Cycle - PAA Research's Fall 2023 RV Dealer Survey

October 12th, 2023

In our view there are four issues that are paramount for CWH shares and that will dictate how the stock trades over the short term 1.How much will demand pull forward in 2020-1H22 impact sales of RVs going forward?  The RV...

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AYI: Riding Three Unsustainable Trends; The Threat of Mean Reversion (or Worse) in Gross Margins Looms Large

October 5th, 2023

Heading into 2023, we thought the broader industrial complex would be fertile ground for short ideas, particular those companies that generated meaningful revenue, earnings, and cash flow growth through...

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OSTK: The Good, the Bad, and the Pathway to Massive Shareholder Value Creation

September 22nd, 2023

Following OSTK over the past 4-years has been nothing short of exhausting. Over the past 6-12 months, we have grown increasingly disappointed and frustrated with OSTK’s execution miscues, market share losses, poorly crafted investor...

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EXPI: Management Starts to Panic as Agent Losses to Upstarts Mount; Watch Out for LPT Realty

September 11th, 2023

“I was at eXp for 3 years, made ICON Agent every year, but the opportunity to build a big downline at eXp is long gone. I went to LPT Realty and have grown from 30 agents to almost 300 in one year. Best thing I could of...

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TRUP: Why Was TRUP Forced to Meet with the New York Department of Financial Services? Accounting Issues, and Other...

August 24th, 2023

“And then finally, we are, for the first time in our history, overcapitalized, Sometimes, we have cash and we have to put it into risk-based capital as we continue to grow. That is not the case...

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EXPI: Concerns About Agent Quality and the Erosion of Downline Revenues Should Be Paramount as the Battle for Talent...

August 15th, 2023

Perhaps sell-side analysts and investors still don’t understand the true nature of EXPI’s business. There’s a reason this company has missed EBITDA expectations SEVEN out of the...

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TRUP: Six Key Takeaways from TRUP’s 2Q23 Results as the Insurance Rate Spiral Gains Speed and the Company Approaches...

August 4th, 2023

Even though we know we would be better off not listening to a single word from the TRUP management team, we simply cannot turn our attention away.  It is utterly fascinating to us that a loss...

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CWH: Success Managing Inventory in 2023 Sets the Stage for Growth in 2024 and Beyond

August 3rd, 2023

“And so we feel like the channel is very, very clean right now…. And there's been tremendous discipline. But we're encouraged and optimistic as it relates to really the cleanliness of the inventories and the weeks...

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TRUP: Slamming the Brakes? Latest Florida Rate and Policy Change Request Exposes Many of TRUP’s Massive Problems in...

July 26th, 2023

It’s hard to believe but almost three months have passed since TRUP reported disastrous 1Q23 operating results highlighted by a skyrocketing loss ratio and higher than expected cash burn. ...

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TRUP: A Company in Crisis – Key Observations from the TRUP Shareholder Meeting and Latest Objection Response in CA

June 9th, 2023

We spent the better part of Wednesday listening to a gaggle of Trupanion executives discuss their business and the opportunities ahead.  From our seat, thousands of miles away, the tension in the...

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TRUP: The Most Frightening Chart for TRUP Longs; Key Findings from the Latest California “Objection Response” and...

May 16th, 2023

Very few TRUP investors take the time to review the statutory statements from the company’s primary underwriting subsidiary, American Pet Insurance Company (APIC).  We think this is a huge...

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TRUP: California Asks More Questions

May 9th, 2023

On 5/9/23, The California Department of Insurance filed yet ANOTHER Objection Response to Trupanion’s 2023 28% base rate increase request. To put things in perspective, the original rate increase request was filed on 12/6/22.  On 2/14/23, American Pet Insurance...

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TRUP: Contextualizing “Trust” as Investors Wrangle with TRUP’s Capital Incineration and Other Issues, Lowering...

May 5th, 2023

“At Trupanion, we value trust and transparency. These values form the basis of our interactions with all stakeholders, including pet owners, veterinarians and their staff, state regulators,...

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TRUP: Key Observations and Questions from the Latest State Regulatory Filing as a Critical Price Increase Is Placed on...

April 24th, 2023

Maria Ripps, Analyst Canaccord Genuity Corp., Research Division “Got it. And going back to price increases, I believe there were still a couple of different markets, where they were not...

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HUSQ.B: Gross Margin Pressure Incoming as Inventory Builds

April 19th, 2023

PAA Research’s April 2023 outdoor power equipment dealer survey

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TRUP: First Pets Best, Now TRUP’s Partnerships with AFL and CHWY Are Under Intense Scrutiny from Regulators

April 17th, 2023

“Yes. I mean, at the highest level, this [the decision to fire the CFO, General Counsel, and EVP of Pricing] comes down to decentralization….” Margaret Tooth, President, Trupanion Inc....

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CWH: Inventory Remains the Key Question

April 12th, 2023

PAA Research's Spring 2023 RV Dealer Survey.

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ATGE: Declining NCLEX Scores Could Have Negative Repercussions on Enrollment Growth at Chamberlain

April 5th, 2023

“Looking at our segments, total enrollment at Chamberlain continued to show modest improvement during the quarter, supported by the success of campus-based BSN programs” Stephen Beard, President and CEO...

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TRUP: The Plot Thickens in California

March 24th, 2023

Yesterday, we published a note outlining the details of a previously undisclosed investigation from the Insurance Commissioner in the State of California related to TRUP’s “pricing policies”.  The Insurance Commissioner in California filed an enforcement...

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TRUP: When You Blow Out THREE C-Level Executives In a Single Day, the Road Might Just Lead You to California

March 23rd, 2023

Close your eyes for a moment and imagine a stock with the following dynamics thus far in 2023: The company guided down significantly on both a revenue and EBITDA basis for 2023 The company lost its...

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TRUP: Troubling Details Emerge from the 10-K and American Pet Insurance Company Statutory Statements

March 7th, 2023

It’s kind of remarkable that TRUP shares are down a meager (-5.4%) since the company reported 4Q22 results, delivered disappointing 1Q23 and 2023 guidance, and announced that it was unwinding the relationship with...

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EXPI: When EBITDA in the Best Possible Market is $80MM and ZERO (or worse) in a Downturn, What’s That Business Worth?

March 1st, 2023

Amidst all of the gibberish about “net promoter score”, Bain consulting books, and nonsense technological assertions, there are some core realities related to EXPI that probably should be...

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TREX: Amidst a Rising Tide of Alarming Questions, the Only Certainty Is That Estimates Are Going Lower

February 28th, 2023

I'm pleased to report that, as anticipated, the inventory recalibration was completed by year-end.  With good participation in the early buy season, we entered the year an upcoming season with inventory...

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PRDO: If You Read the 10-K Not the Earnings Release for Guidance, You’ll Know a Cat 5 Storm Could Be Coming to...

February 24th, 2023

“It’s absolutely ridiculous that anyone would buy shares in a company after reading an earnings release instead of the annual report” Charlie Munger (Probably) “As...

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STRA: Three Critical Observations from the Earnings Report of a Secularly Challenged For-Profit Education Company...

February 23rd, 2023

“We had probably the only thing that was a little bit of a surprise is we had a little bit higher bad debt than we expected. That's typical. Now with the benefit of hindsight, when we have...

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CWH: For 2023, Inventory Is All That Matters

February 22nd, 2023

“We said on retail 370,000 to 390,000 is our expectation. Wholesale 325,000 to 350,000.” Brian Michael Hall, CFO, LCI Industries. 2/14/23. 4Q22 Earnings Conf. Call “The one thing that I'm noticing that is different than any other soft period...

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TRUP: The Narrative Cannot Hold When the Business Model Breaks

February 16th, 2023

The year is 2023 and TRUP is no closer to generating profitability than it was when the company went public back in 2014.  It’s a remarkable achievement.  In 2014, TRUP generated Adjusted EBITDA of (-$10MM), not too far off from the meager...

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HUSQ.B

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