TREX: An "Econ 101" Driven Cat 5 Storm of Earnings Destruction Could Be Forming

The attached report details our short thesis on TREX and outlines the feedback we received from our latest survey of decking products dealers.

TRUP: JAB Goes All in on Pet Insurance Which Could Accelerate TRUP’s Struggles

Yesterday, JAB Holding Company announced the largest acquisition in the history of the pet insurance industry.  Through the transaction, JAB will acquire the Crum & Forster Pet Insurance Group and PetHealth Inc. from Fairfax...

TREX: How Quickly Can the Channel Go From “Well Stocked” to “Stuffed”?

TREX shares have declined nearly (-60%) thus far this year largely due to a widespread rerating of growth stocks following a near unprecedented increase in interest rates.  Remarkably, even after the enormous decline in TREX shares over...

ATGE: Management Puts on a Brave Face as Starts Deteriorate

Another quarter and another 20-25 minute earnings conference call where ATGE management attempted to blame COVID19 for all of their demand and operational woes.  There is no doubt that COVID19 has created a significant headwind for demand for nursing...

CWH: Bears Swimming Against the Tide; When Estimates Go Down and the Stock Goes Up, the Short Interest Starts to Loom...

For the past two years, we have listened to criticism after criticism of Marcus Lemonis and Camping World.   Skeptics typically bring up the following issues when criticizing Marcus, his...

TRUP: Not Now, Not Ever; This Is What the Start of a Broken Growth Story Looks Like

It’s a signature of the human condition: two people can look at the same exact thing and have completely different reactions and descriptions as to what it is.  This is particularly true of works of art whose value is almost...

OSTK: Ten Reasons Things Will Get Better from Here for OSTK and Its Shareholders

We lack imagination as investors.  It is the hallmark of every bull and bear market that we underestimate the upside and cannot fathom the downside for the companies in which we invest long or short.  This statement not only...

TRUP: We’ll Take Your “Kuyashii” and Wish TRUP Shares “Sayonara”; TRUP Lowers Its Growth Objectives Amidst...

Was it really only 5-months ago when TRUP shares surged to $150+ following the announcement that the company forged a partnership with the leading ecommerce platform for pet products, CHWY? ...

HUSQ.B: No Domo Arigoto Mr. Roboto

We introduced HUSQ.B as a short idea a few weeks ago based on our expectation that the outdoor powere equipment industry has experienced significant demand pull forward, the transition to battery powered products could dilute the company's marigns meaningfully, and demand for...

CWH: Time to Shine

Our latest RV dealer checks suggest industry demand remains solid while inventory levels have started to normalize. More importantly we think we are moving into an environment were the merits of CWH's strategic growth initiatives introduced over the past 2-3 years should start to shine. ...

TREX: The Negative Estimate Revision Cycle Begins, In the Face of Unprecedented Capacity Expansion It Won’t End...

“Fortunately, about half of the additional planned capacity has come online this month, with the balance expected by the end of January -- or excuse me, the end of April 2022. Our continuous...

PRDO: We’ve Seen This Story Before, It’s What the Beginning of the End Looks Like

Over the past 20 years, we have become particularly adept at identifying the early stages of a potential “death spiral” for a for-profit education company.   From a notional perspective, for-profit education...

HUSQ.B: Time to Cut It Down

“This shift in relative power from manufacturer to retailer has greatly increased the relative importance of price. This increased the importance of being a low-cost producer and added urgency to our need to achieve our cost goals.” Fred Stratton. Former CEO of Briggs and...

CWH: “Stress Test” Estimates on Dealer Productivity Suggest a Potential Earnings Floor of $3.50-$4.00/Share

Over the past 5-years, Marcus Lemonis and his team at CWH achieved a number of accomplishments including: Increased company revenues by more than 50% Expanded CWH’s leadership at the top of RV...

TRUP: Shift in Guidance Looks to Be a Harbinger of Growth Deceleration

Will TRUP’s 4Q21 earnings conference call be remembered as the event at which the company’s management team signaled to the investment community that enrollment and revenue growth were on the cusp of a major deceleration? In our view, we...

EXPI: As Housing Tailwinds Turn Into Headwinds Can EXPI Keep the “Downstream” Passive Income and Stock Price Dream...

The last time interest rates were at current levels, EXPI was an off the radar residential real estate services company with a “virtual model” and multi-level marketing style compensation...

ATGE: This Isn’t Just a COVID19 Problem; Reducing Estimates

ATGE management would like investors to believe that the company’s disastrous 2Q22 results and weak outlook for the remainder of the year are solely a function of the surge in COVID19 case counts over the past 3-4 months.  There is no doubt that...

OSTK: The SEC’s Approval of the BSTX Exchange Could Represent a Seminal Event in the History of Capital Markets and...

In Russell Napier’s phenomenal book Anatomy of the Bear (which we will likely review again over the weekend), the author suggests that one of the hallmarks of bear markets is that good news...

OSTK: Something Has to Give - OSTK’s Retail Business Could Be Trading at Less than

If you were to pick two factors over the past 8-12 weeks with which you would never want your company to be associated it would be supposed COVID19 “winner” and tech.  Well as far as...

ATGE: The Irrational Bid in Corporate America Remains Alive and Well, Now Comes the Hard Part for ATGE

This morning ATGE announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Financial Services division in two separate transactions for a combined purchase price of $1 billion.  First, ACAMS the...

ATGE: Zombie Company Walking – How ATGE’s Leverage Could Quickly Blow Out to 6.0-7.0x EBITDA

“Starting in the month of June, among our licensed registered nursing student body at Aspen University, working nurses were needed on the front lines for patient care and, frankly, showed clear signs of fatigue. This...

PRDO: Nelson Finally Steps Down, Don’t Let the Door Hit You….

Yesterday after the close, PRDO announced that Todd Nelson stepped down as President and CEO of PRDO effective 1/20/22. That’s right, no transition period.  This is a meaningful development for PRDO, the higher education industry, and our...

AYI: The Topping Process Starts with Growth Quality Issues

We imagine that many AYI bulls are highly disappointed with the stock price action in response to what appeared to be on the surface a “blowout” quarter for the company.  However, upon further review, perhaps the quarter wasn’t as strong...

TRUP: Short Sellers Get “CHWYed” Up, the Market Reaction Calculus in Business Terms, Like Aflac, Another Deal of...

This conversation happened more in our heads over the past 24 hours than it did in reality….. Druckenmiller: “Why are you still short this TRUP?” PAA: “It’s a...

PRDO: Starts Weakness Suggests EPS Power Could Unravel QUICKLY for PRDO, Mapping PRDO’s Huge Cash Uses, Lowering...

Heading into PRDO’s earnings release, we never know what to expect. It is the hallmark of the company to do everything in its power to sustain a mirage of growth, stable enrollment, and...

EXPI: When the Stock Price Is Your Most Important Fundamental – the SEC Subpoena Version

“On June 1, 2021, the Company received a subpoena issued by the staff of the Division of Enforcement of the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC Staff”) requesting certain documentation and information...

CWH: At Your Service, Exploring Camping World's $8-$12B Service Revenue Opportunity; RV Dealer Survey Feedback

Camping World investors remain overly obsessed with new RV sales at a time when the company's growth prospects are increasingly tethered to high margin revenue sources such as service, rentals, camping...

AYI: Downplaying Price Increases When You’re a Supply Chain Disruption Winner

“So some of the backlog will have different impacts of the price increase. So we had our first price increase announced in March, which was impacting late in the fourth quarter, very, very little, and we saw some of that realization...

AYI: Lighting Agent Survey - How Long Can Pricing Hold Up?

EXPI/RLGY: Real Estate Wars - The “White Hot” Housing Market Has Masked a RACE to the Bottom Among Residential Real...

The race to the bottom in broker economics.