TREX: The Negative Estimate Revision Cycle Begins, In the Face of Unprecedented Capacity Expansion It Won’t End...

“Fortunately, about half of the additional planned capacity has come online this month, with the balance expected by the end of January -- or excuse me, the end of April 2022. Our continuous...

PRDO: We’ve Seen This Story Before, It’s What the Beginning of the End Looks Like

Over the past 20 years, we have become particularly adept at identifying the early stages of a potential “death spiral” for a for-profit education company.   From a notional perspective, for-profit education...

HUSQ.B: Time to Cut It Down

“This shift in relative power from manufacturer to retailer has greatly increased the relative importance of price. This increased the importance of being a low-cost producer and added urgency to our need to achieve our cost goals.” Fred Stratton. Former CEO of Briggs and...

CWH: “Stress Test” Estimates on Dealer Productivity Suggest a Potential Earnings Floor of $3.50-$4.00/Share

Over the past 5-years, Marcus Lemonis and his team at CWH achieved a number of accomplishments including: Increased company revenues by more than 50% Expanded CWH’s leadership at the top of RV...

TRUP: Shift in Guidance Looks to Be a Harbinger of Growth Deceleration

Will TRUP’s 4Q21 earnings conference call be remembered as the event at which the company’s management team signaled to the investment community that enrollment and revenue growth were on the cusp of a major deceleration? In our view, we...

EXPI: As Housing Tailwinds Turn Into Headwinds Can EXPI Keep the “Downstream” Passive Income and Stock Price Dream...

The last time interest rates were at current levels, EXPI was an off the radar residential real estate services company with a “virtual model” and multi-level marketing style compensation...

ATGE: This Isn’t Just a COVID19 Problem; Reducing Estimates

ATGE management would like investors to believe that the company’s disastrous 2Q22 results and weak outlook for the remainder of the year are solely a function of the surge in COVID19 case counts over the past 3-4 months.  There is no doubt that...

OSTK: The SEC’s Approval of the BSTX Exchange Could Represent a Seminal Event in the History of Capital Markets and...

In Russell Napier’s phenomenal book Anatomy of the Bear (which we will likely review again over the weekend), the author suggests that one of the hallmarks of bear markets is that good news...

OSTK: Something Has to Give - OSTK’s Retail Business Could Be Trading at Less than

If you were to pick two factors over the past 8-12 weeks with which you would never want your company to be associated it would be supposed COVID19 “winner” and tech.  Well as far as...

ATGE: The Irrational Bid in Corporate America Remains Alive and Well, Now Comes the Hard Part for ATGE

This morning ATGE announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Financial Services division in two separate transactions for a combined purchase price of $1 billion.  First, ACAMS the...

ATGE: Zombie Company Walking – How ATGE’s Leverage Could Quickly Blow Out to 6.0-7.0x EBITDA

“Starting in the month of June, among our licensed registered nursing student body at Aspen University, working nurses were needed on the front lines for patient care and, frankly, showed clear signs of fatigue. This...

PRDO: Nelson Finally Steps Down, Don’t Let the Door Hit You….

Yesterday after the close, PRDO announced that Todd Nelson stepped down as President and CEO of PRDO effective 1/20/22. That’s right, no transition period.  This is a meaningful development for PRDO, the higher education industry, and our...

AYI: The Topping Process Starts with Growth Quality Issues

We imagine that many AYI bulls are highly disappointed with the stock price action in response to what appeared to be on the surface a “blowout” quarter for the company.  However, upon further review, perhaps the quarter wasn’t as strong...

TRUP: Short Sellers Get “CHWYed” Up, the Market Reaction Calculus in Business Terms, Like Aflac, Another Deal of...

This conversation happened more in our heads over the past 24 hours than it did in reality….. Druckenmiller: “Why are you still short this TRUP?” PAA: “It’s a...

PRDO: Starts Weakness Suggests EPS Power Could Unravel QUICKLY for PRDO, Mapping PRDO’s Huge Cash Uses, Lowering...

Heading into PRDO’s earnings release, we never know what to expect. It is the hallmark of the company to do everything in its power to sustain a mirage of growth, stable enrollment, and...

EXPI: When the Stock Price Is Your Most Important Fundamental – the SEC Subpoena Version

“On June 1, 2021, the Company received a subpoena issued by the staff of the Division of Enforcement of the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC Staff”) requesting certain documentation and information...

CWH: At Your Service, Exploring Camping World's $8-$12B Service Revenue Opportunity; RV Dealer Survey Feedback

Camping World investors remain overly obsessed with new RV sales at a time when the company's growth prospects are increasingly tethered to high margin revenue sources such as service, rentals, camping...

AYI: Downplaying Price Increases When You’re a Supply Chain Disruption Winner

“So some of the backlog will have different impacts of the price increase. So we had our first price increase announced in March, which was impacting late in the fourth quarter, very, very little, and we saw some of that realization...

AYI: Lighting Agent Survey - How Long Can Pricing Hold Up?

EXPI/RLGY: Real Estate Wars - The “White Hot” Housing Market Has Masked a RACE to the Bottom Among Residential Real...

The race to the bottom in broker economics.

PRDO: Borrower Defense to Repayment Claims Could Imperil PRDO’s Cash Balances; What About ATGE?

“The most common types of conduct that might make a borrower eligible for loan relief through borrower defense to repayment discharge are misrepresentations of the truth made by the school or its representatives...

EXPI: As Good as It Will Ever Get? EXPI is the Poster Child for the Bubble in Real Estate Agents

               “For the Indians, one run on, let’s see, one hit? That’s all we got? One g—damn hit?” Harry Doyle....

CWH: A Simple Sanity Check Suggests the EBITDA Floor Is Higher Than You Think

For those who think they’re really good at playing this game, we present you the following question: A year ago consensus estimates for FY21 EBITDA for CWH were $293MM.  By tomorrow, we expect consensus EBITDA estimates for CWH for...

TREX: What is “Normal”? Coming to Grips with Reality at Trex

“Normal is the wrong name often used for average” Henry S. Haskins On TREX’s 2Q21 earnings conference call there were TWELVE references to “normal”, “normalization”, or “normalized”. ...

TRUP: Problems, Problems, Problems….. And Then There’s New Jersey

“Easy, compadre. I'm your friend out here, all right?... If you want to throw down, fine. I've got Jack Johnson and Tom O'Leary waiting for you…… Well, guess what? Now this is...

TRUP: Another Challenging M&A Comp for Trupanion

Over the past 2-3 years there have been two landmark M&A transactions in the pet insurance space.  First, SYF acquired Pets Best in March 2019 for roughly $80MM. No more than a month later, specialty insurance player WTM purchased Embrace for $73MM. ...

EXPI: Slowing Agent Productivity Gains Are the First (of Many) Red Flags in a White Hot Housing Market; Let the...

Well that was quite the round trip.  No one rings the bell when valuation compression starts, or for that matter when it stops. EXPI shareholders and their agents (one in the same in this case),...

CWH: Breaking Through the Ceiling Creates a New Floor; Raising Estimates

For the past 6-9 months, every single one of our conversations around CWH revolved around a single question: When will demand collapse?  Put this in the category of “every general fights the last war”.  Even after crushing...

CWH: The Inventory Advantage, Raising Target to $75, PAA Research's Spring 2021 RV Dealer Survey

TRUP: When Will the COVID-19 Tailwinds End for TRUP? Other Key Questions Heading into the Company’s 1Q21 Earnings...

What changed? We posed the same question to start 2021 following a year in which TRUP shares rallied more than 230%, despite the company’s continued struggles to grow profitably.  TRUP...