“Acuity is selling at levels below the importers.” Lighting Agent. June 2020 Even though AYI beat our EPS estimates handily in the quarter, the primary discussion surrounding the company’s business and dynamics...
READ MORE >The attached report outlines the feedback from our latest survey of lighting agents. The economic downturn has exacerbated what already were significant secular challenges for AYI. Sales...
READ MORE >“Extinction is the rule. Survival is the exception.” Carl Sagan On a day in which renewed concerns about the impact of COVID19 on the US economy drove the S&P 500 more than (-5%) lower the question of which...
READ MORE >“As we sit here today, I'm proud to tell you that last weekend, our Friday, Saturday and Sunday in May was the biggest weekend in our company's history, period, end of story, in all aspects, every part of our...
READ MORE >“The increase in segment operating income is the result of strong Chamberlain enrollment trends and efforts to increase efficiency and reduce travel and discretionary spend, partially offset by...
READ MORE >We wanted to quickly go through some key questions that PRDO faces as we approach the company’s 1Q20 earnings release and conference call. Sadly, we doubt that the company will address...
READ MORE >We’re going to keep it fairly short in this note. Heading into the quarter, the magnitude of bullish sentiment surrounding TREX was simply baffling. Many analysts and investors appeared to be CONVINCED that strong feedback about decking related sales at Home Depot and Lowe’s...
READ MORE >“Aces are larger than life and greater than mountains” Mike Caro Neither the most ardent bull nor the...
READ MORE >We are introducing Camping World Holdings (CWH) as a long idea with a $20 Price Objective. Please see the attached slide deck which outlines our investment thesis and feedback from our survey of more...
READ MORE >Attached please find a report which outlines the feedback from a survey of decking dealers that we conducted over the first two weeks of April.
READ MORE >“Risk weighted assets for the Big 6 banks, and CM and RY in particular are massively understated in our view. CM and RY are 26 and 23 times levered based on gross loan exposure to total Tier 1 capital. Given their substantial...
READ MORE >“The recent revenue trends, however, will not fix themselves. There has been industry deflation. We have additional...
READ MORE >“Given that more than 95% of our students are already taking all of their classes online and given that we have the capability to operate our company with our entire workforce working remotely,...
READ MORE >This note represents the first of what will be a series of reports that we will publish in the coming weeks backed by surveys across a variety of industries. While there are many...
READ MORE >“So the biggest thing is, we've effectively imposed a view that we want to drive more leverage on the ad cost. So that would manifest to the ad cost as a percentage of revenue. So as you...
READ MORE >In a press release today, the U.S. Department of Veteran Affairs announced that it would disapprove the enrollment of new GI Bill students at the following five institutions: University of...
READ MORE >“We estimate that composites account for 19% of the North American total decking market and that the enhanced products have further expanded our addressable market to about 60% of the overall decking market...
READ MORE >“And I guess I lost my way There were oh so many roads I was living to run and running to live Never worried about paying or even how much I owed” Seger, Bob. “Against the Wind”. Against the Wind....
READ MORE >Yesterday, TRUP management released the latest chapter of the scintillating fiction: Pet Insurance Economics According to Darryl. There’s one thing that Mr. Rawlings and the rest of the...
READ MORE >We’re nearly four years into the Wardell regime at ATGE and there are only a few things that we can conclusively state about the current management team at the company: They appear...
READ MORE >Below is a link to a report outlining the findings from our 4Q19 survey of lighting agents. There are five critical conclusions that we want to point out: The efficacy of the 2H18 and early 2019 list price increases has eroded meaningfully The...
READ MORE >“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.” Benjamin Graham This oft...
READ MORE >“I think it's -- the work that's being done in our underwriting team to accurately price for risk. There's a lot of work that's going into the evaluation of business for self...
READ MORE >We thought we knew what we were getting into when we wrote up OSTK as a long idea less than two months ago. Since that time, shares have crashed more than (-50%) – obviously we made some...
READ MORE >If you’ve followed Todd Nelson’s career in the for-profit education space over the years, a few core competencies become evident: Running “fast and loose” with regulatory compliance Achieving enrollment growth at any cost for...
READ MORE >We apologize for not publishing our thoughts following TRUP’s 3Q19 earnings release and subsequent conference call sooner. We wanted to make sure we had the chance to fully vet some of...
READ MORE >“Overall, we're pleased with our top line growth in the quarter, and we believe our stepped-up investments in marketing, along with increased corporate cost discipline position us well to...
READ MORE >“The fact that I mentioned for the first time any guidance on the top line growth, I think is noteworthy. I think what I said was that we plan to have solid double-digit growth in 2020. The demand we've...
READ MORE >Slowing sales trends as competition starts to heat up.
READ MORE >Sometimes in this business it truly is remarkable how stock price action dictates the narrative around a company. We’re not going to go down the Soros reflexivity rabbit hole here, but let’s take you back just 10-weeks ago following TRUP’s 2Q19...
READ MORE >SELL
$50
LONG
$110
SELL/SHORT
$230
SELL/SHORT
$55
LONG
$70
SELL/SHORT
$4
SELL/SHORT
$45
SHORT
$18
SELL/SHORT
$5
SELL/SHORT
$42
LONG
$75
SELL/SHORT
$50
SELL/SHORT
$50
LONG
$5.50
SHORT
$50
SHORT
$28
LONG
$65
LONG
$37
PAIR TRADE
$10
PAIR TRADE
$30
LONG
$35
SHORT
$35
SELL/SHORT
$10
SHORT
$101
SHORT
$15
SHORT
$0
SHORT
$9
SHORT
$0
PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC
25%
SHORT
$14.00
SHORT
$22
SHORT
$15
SHORT
$20
SHORT
$31
SHORT
$35
SHORT
$30
PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR
25%
SHORT
$100
LONG
$8
LONG
$20
SHORT
$22
PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP
40%
LONG
$35
SHORT
$275
SHORT
$0