“Our customers have shown tremendous courage and we’re matching that by sticking with them to the best of our best ability. We believe that working with customers to help get them to a...
READ MORE >Approximately 18-months ago, we published a report entitled: “Is Zillow’s ARPA Growth Miracle Over? The Demise of the “MSA” in the Mortgage Channel Suggests It Could Be, Reducing Estimates”. In...
READ MORE >“There is always a heavy demand for fresh mediocrity. In every generation the least cultivated taste has the largest appetite.” Paul Gauguin Following another 90-minute conference call in which...
READ MORE >In many ways the investment case for or against Zillow increasingly can be distilled to one single question: Does the company’s current cost structure reflect investments for growth or simply...
READ MORE >It’s been an interesting start to 2017 for HCG. The stock is down a meager (-5.0%) YTD, which belies the drastic change in investor sentiment around the company. Several major brokerage firms have downgraded HCG shares over the past 4-6...
READ MORE >“Let's begin What where why or when Will all be explained Why destruction is a game See I'm not insane In fact I'm kind of rational….” Boogie Down...
READ MORE >“All I do is separate the game from the truth” Wallace, Christopher. “One More Chance”. Ready To Die. Bad Boy, 1994. We think the quote above perfectly...
READ MORE >When we first introduced AYI as a short idea approximately 9-months ago, the largest pushback on the merits of our investment thesis related to the perceived quality of the company’s management team. ...
READ MORE >We recently completed a survey of lighting agents across the country. The feedback from our survey confirms our view that: Revenue growth in the lighting industry has started to slow Pricing pressure on LED products...
READ MORE >“I've got depth of perception in my text y'all I get props at my mention 'cause I vex y'all So what'cha...
READ MORE >“It's just that I've never seen people celebrate mediocrity the way you do.” Jack Byrnes (Robert DeNiro). Meet the Fockers. Dir. Jay Roach. Universal Studios 2004. For...
READ MORE >“As cooler weather starts driving up heating costs, Calgary distress centres are finding more people who once earned steady incomes are now struggling to pay their bills and seeking relief with...
READ MORE >Zillow management did it again. The company guided down for the forward quarter and “talked down” margin expectations for the out year. This has become a tried and true practice for...
READ MORE >We recently conducted a survey of 148 mortgage brokers located across Canada. The key findings from our survey include: Home price weaknes is becoming more broad based The underlying bid for housing remains...
READ MORE >“….but I do want to remind everybody that CoStar has shown again and again and again that we are able to reduce costs after an investment initiative. We are very good at that and we need credit for that.” Andy...
READ MORE >Yes, it’s true that AYI does not provide earnings guidance for investors, but the manner in which the company handled its latest earnings release has to be viewed as troubling. AYI missed by a wide margin on both the top...
READ MORE >Will Monday, October 3, 2016 be remembered as the day that the housing market in Ontario peaked? Maybe. In a move that appears to have shaken the Canadian housing market to its core (or at least rattled a few branches), Minister of Finance, Bill Morneau announced a...
READ MORE >“How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly” Ernest Hemingway, The Sun Also Rises ITT Educational Services ceased to exist as of September 16th. The...
READ MORE >“Financial engineering is the use of mathematical techniques to solve financial problems. Financial engineering uses tools and knowledge from the fields of computer science, statistics, economics and applied...
READ MORE >Over the years, there are few things that we have looked forward to less than listening to DV earnings conference calls. For the most part, the conference calls and presentations during the...
READ MORE >Believe it or not, there was a time even after we adopted a bearish stance on Zillow’s stock that we were allowed to ask questions on the company’s earnings conference calls. Unfortunately we asked too many difficult...
READ MORE >To anyone (ourselves included) that has followed the publicly available financial data on Home Trust from OSFI over the past few months, it is not a surprise that the company once again missed...
READ MORE >HCG is desperate. How do we know this? Well certainly in this case actions speak louder than words. Consider the following steps the company has taken over the past 6-12 months to shore up...
READ MORE >Over the past month, we surveyd approximately 470 real estate agents. The vast majority of the agents we surveyed have at least 10-years experience, generate at least 15 transaction sides annually, and work for one of the REAL Trends 500 brokerage firms. Additionally, a significant...
READ MORE >The continued sharp decline in oil prices over the last couple of years has had a detrimental effect on the Alberta economy, resulting in several high-value provisions and writeoffs in our commercial portfolio, predominantly within the energy...
READ MORE >We recently conducted a survey of approximately 230 real estate agents in Canada. The attached presentation summarizes our key findings from the survey.
READ MORE >“EBITDA isn’t a controlled substance or a law enforcement agency. It’s the standard abbreviation for the financial-analysis term “Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and...
READ MORE >In the strongest housing market in the history of Ontario while taking provisions for credit losses as close to zero as possible, HCG still missed consensus 1Q16 earnings expectations....
READ MORE >The structural flaws with Zillow’s operating model are all hiding in plain sight. It’s May 2016, nearly 5-years after Zillow went public and the company is no closer to achieving its theoretical adjusted EBITDA margin...
READ MORE >As a firm, we pride ourselves on the rigors of our idea generation process. Rigorous fundamental analysis, in-depth primary research, accounting scrutiny etc. are all hallmarks of our investment process. However, despite the intensity of our work on any...
READ MORE >SELL
$50
LONG
$110
SELL/SHORT
$230
SELL/SHORT
$55
LONG
$70
SELL/SHORT
$4
SELL/SHORT
$45
SHORT
$18
SELL/SHORT
$5
SELL/SHORT
$42
LONG
$75
SELL/SHORT
$50
SELL/SHORT
$50
LONG
$5.50
SHORT
$50
SHORT
$28
LONG
$65
LONG
$37
PAIR TRADE
$10
PAIR TRADE
$30
LONG
$35
SHORT
$35
SELL/SHORT
$10
SHORT
$101
SHORT
$15
SHORT
$0
SHORT
$9
SHORT
$0
PAIR - LONG BGG/SHORT TTC
25%
SHORT
$14.00
SHORT
$22
SHORT
$15
SHORT
$20
SHORT
$31
SHORT
$35
SHORT
$30
PAIR - LONG KNL/SHORT MLHR
25%
SHORT
$100
LONG
$8
LONG
$20
SHORT
$22
PAIR - LONG CSGP/SHORT LOOP
40%
LONG
$35
SHORT
$275
SHORT
$0