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Book Reviews
(1)
The Importance of Reading Russell Napier’s Anatomy of the Bear
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Business Services
(28)
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Cash Logistics
(8)
BCO: Some Modest Operating Momentum Starting to Emerge, Revising Estimates
From Headwinds to Tailwinds - 2010 Should Bring Solid Earnings Growth and FCF Generation for BCO
BCO Happily Says Goodbye to 2009; 2010 Should Be Back to Basics – Steady Organic Growth and Solid FCF Generation
BCO’s “Danza Con El Diablo” Continues – Venezuela Remains an Overhang
BCO: 3Q09 Operational Beat Clouded by One-Time Gains and Higher Tax Rate
BCO: A Name for the Contrarian Value Crowd – Increased Diamond Transaction Volume, Currency, Should Boost 3Q09 Results
The Brink’s Company Is STILL a Good Place to Keep Your Cash
The Brink’s Company (BCO): A Safe Place To Keep Your Cash
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Reprographics
(14)
ARP: Quick Thoughts on ARP's Earnings Results, Our Revised Estimates, ARP's Secular Growth Strategy Starts to Emerge
Finally a Bottom in the Reprographics Industry? Channel Checks Suggest So, ARP Positioned for a Solid Q2 Beat
Reprographics Industry Slowly Stabilizing, ARP On Track for 2010 FCF of $60MM, More Insights on BIM's Impact
Conversations with ARP Management: Answering the BIM Question
ARP Raises Guidance for 4Q09 Revenues, EPS – Consensus Estimates Appear Too Low for 2010
Feedback from Independent Reprographers Suggests the Potential for ARP to Beat Estimates is High, AIA Billings Index Could Finally Eclipse 50 in 1Q10
Canon’s Takeover Bid for Oce N.V. Validates Value of ARP Shares
ARP’s Revenue “Air-Pocket”, FCF Is Still Impressive, The Outlook from Reprographers
Despite Weakness in the AIA Billings Index, Channel Checks Suggest Another Quarter of Upside Out of ARP – Looking at the Company’s Next Growth Vehicle
Recent Correction in ARP Shares Brings the FCF Yield Back to 20%+
AIA Architecture Billings Index for April 2009 Supportive of Our Free Cash Flow Outlook for ARP
ARP is a Cash Cow. If That’s the Worst of It, We’ll Take All We Can Get
Comments from a Reprographics Industry Veteran
ARP is a Cash Cow
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Specialty Consulting
(3)
The Forensic Accountants Were Defrauded, Huron Consulting Caught in an Accounting Scandal
Chairman Schapiro’s Testimony Highlights an Increasingly Active SEC – HURN Will Benefit
Huron Consulting Group: An Investment Made with a More Aggressive SEC in Mind
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Transaction processing
(3)
GCA's Loss of Its Harrah's Contract Throws Stock Into a "Doubt Spiral" - Four Reasons Why We Think the Stock Can Trade Higher From Here
GCA 4Q09: Block, Tackle and Generate Cash
Global Cash Access Holdings, Inc. (GCA): A Cheap Way to Play a Gaming Recovery
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Consumer
(74)
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Education Services
(51)
WPO: Barron's Strikes Again, A More Realistic SOTP Analysis, Tail Risk Growing Rapidly
COCO Runs Itself Into Regulatory "Maelstrom", Expect Full Year Operating Losses for the Next Several Years
We Thought the Repayment Rate Data Would Be Bad, It Was Worse - After "Black Monday" What Will Be the Lingering Questions in the For-Profit Education Sector
WPO: 2Q10 Earnings Release Is a "Wake Up Call" to Investors, Yields More Questions than Answers
WPO: As the Questions Pile Up, Will We Finally Get Some Answers?
"Repayment Rate" Provision of Gainful Employment Is Not Nearly as "Toothless" as You Might Think
ESI: Rapidly Slowing Start Growth, Revenue Miss, and Low Quality Earnings Beat Suggest Growth Strains Are Starting to Emerge
A View From Privately Held For-Profit Postsecondary Institutions
Considerations Heading Into ESI's 2Q10 Earnings Results - Are ESI Shares Really "Cheap"?
Solving the Credit Crisis..... In Higher Education
WPO: 1Q10 Results Do Little To Change Our Short Thesis, Our Revised Estimates
COCO's 3Q10 Results Might Signal the Last Days of Margin Expansion, The Questions that Should Be Asked, Establishing a Realistic Set of Estimates
ESI's 1Q10 Results Were Stronger Than Expected, but Leave Us With Plenty of Questions
ESI 1Q10 Preview, New Lawsuit Raises More Questions About ESI's Regulatory Compliance Practices
A "Must Read" Report for Any Investor in the For-Profit Education Sector Heading Into 1Q10 Earnings Season
Surprising Observations From the ACICS Key Operating Statistics Report for 2009
WPO 10-K Highlights – Program Review at Kaplan University, Kaplan Resolves 25% CDR Issue at a Few Schools
WPO 4Q09: Margin Improvement at Newspaper and Broadcasting Divisions Overshadow Sequential Decline in Margins at Kaplan Higher Education
Chart of the Week: Do Your Remember When APOL Was Known For Enrolling High Quality Working Adults?
ESI 10-K Highlights, the “More You Learn, the More You Earn” Student Covenant Continues to Slip Away While Cohort Default Rates Remain Surprisingly Low
COCO Continues to Struggle With High Cohort Default Rates – “Self Regulation” Is Not Only Likely, It’s Necessary
Quick Comments on COCO’s 2Q10 Results: Higher Retention Sparks Revenue Upside, Starts Fall Short, EPS Beat Driven by Facility Leverage, Lower Cost-per-Start – When Are We Going to Get Real Bad-Debt Expense Disclosure?
PAA Research For-Profit Education Survey Suggests Enrollment Growth for the Winter Term Remained Robust, Some Slowdown Expected in 2010, and Some Schools Have Already Introduced “Self Regulation”
ESI Reports a Solid Quarter, New “Private Student Loan Program” Optically Looks Good, Economically “Kicks the Can Down the Road”
ESI 4Q09 Preview: The Last Days of Operating Margin Leverage?
The Dept. of Education Fires A Shot Across the Bow of the Higher Learning Commission (HLC)
Unofficial FY07 3-Year Cohort Default Rates Come In-line With Expectations, Now Comes the Hard Part for COCO and WPO
Preparing for the Release of Unofficial 3-Year Cohort Default Rate Data – Follow the Script, At the Very Least Self-Regulation Is on Its Way
Details of Department of Education Negotiated Rulemaking Proposals Leak Out – Incentive Comp and Program Affordability Changes Would Have Large Implications
WPO Alters Revenue Recognition Policy for Kaplan Higher Education, More Enrollment Reconcilliation
WPO’s 3Q09 Results, What is an Enrollment at Kaplan? COCO’s 10-Q Filing
Apollo Group’s 4Q09 Results Send Shockwaves: Could the SEC Inquiry Relate to Accounting for Student Withdrawals? APOL Backs Away From Lower Quality Students
COCO’s Upcoming 1Q10 Results: More Bad-Debt Expense “Slight of Hand”? How Long Can Lead Cost Deflation Last?
Quick Thoughts on ESI’s 3Q09 Results: Low Quality EPS Beat, Bad-Debt Expense Continues to Grow, First Ever Seq. Decline Op. Margins 2Q to 3Q
ESI 3Q09 Preview, Backing Into FY10 Consensus – Margins Don’t Grow to the Sky Do They?
COCO Takes a Bigger Bite in California – Analyzing the Heald Capital (Heald College Acquisition)
At Least For Now For the Bulls In For-Profit Education “It Just Doesn’t Matter”, Next Up Earnings and “NegReg”
Dear Mr. Buffet: About the Washington Post Company….
SF Weekly Article Harshly Criticizes COCO’s Business Practices
A Question of Recourse – The GAO Report Might Not Have Been As Bad As Feared, but It Still Confirmed Our Short Thesis
The Winners and Losers from the FY07 Cohort Default Data
Preparing for the Release of the Final FY07 Cohort Default Data – Which Stocks Could Be Impacted
COCO’s Bad-Debt Expense Slight of Hand, 25%+ Cohort Default Rates Are Coming, It Appears Regulatory Headwinds Could be Mounting
ESI’s Bad-Debt Expense and Questions We Would Like Answered on ESI’s Conference Call
Performance of Sallie Mae’s “Non-Traditional” (aka for-profit) Loan Book Looks Frightening, A Few Thoughts on ESI’s Upcoming 2Q09 Earnings Release
Can the Income Based Repayment Plan Save ESI from A Tidal Wave of Student Loan Defaults?
Survey Shows the Elasticity of Demand Is Starting to Creep Into the Higher Education Sector – The Acceptance Rates at Some SUNY Schools Are Lower than Some in the Ivy League
U.S. News and World Report Article Highlights Debt Burden of Students Attending For-Profit Colleges
The Bulls Are Going to Like the Headline Numbers for ESI’s 1Q09, but Some of the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Details Deserve Attention
Some Quick Thoughts on the Credit Suisse For-profit Education Sector Downgrade and ESI’s Upcoming Earnings Release
Whatever Happened to “the More You Learn, the More You Earn”? The Structural Problems with ESI’s Business Model
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Firearm Manufacturers
(10)
Closing Our Our SWHC Short Idea With a 10.6% Return
The “Obama Effect” One Year Later – What Firearms Dealers Are Saying Now
August NICS Background Check Data Shows First Month-to Month Sequential Improvment in a While, Key Questions Heading into SWHC’s 1Q10 Results
Sturm, Ruger Strong 2Q09 Results, but Orders are Falling and Channel Inventories Rising – Back to Normalcy in the Firearms Market
The June NICS Background Checks Are In – Another Sequential Month to Month Decline
June Traffic Data Suggests A Further Slowdown in Firearm Sales
What To Do About Smith and Wesson (SWHC) Now
Another Decline in Traffic to Leading Online Gun Dealers, Query Data Suggest Gun Sales Will Continue To Slow
More Evidence the “Obama Effect” On Gun Sales Has Peaked – NICS Background Checks Decline 16.5% M/M from April to May
The Smoking Gun? It Appears the “Obama Effect” on Firearm Sales Has Started to Wane
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Housing
(8)
A View from the Frontlines of Housing
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update – Closing out ZIPR Investment Idea with 77% Gain
ZIPR Blows Away 4Q09 Revenue Estimates, Continued Market Share Gains Should Lead to Positive EBITDA and FCF in 2010
What ZipRealty’s Results Tell Us About the State of Housing, ZIPR’s Path to Profitability
Housing is the Business Cycle, So Where are We Now?
ZipRealty’s Traffic Continues to Grow
ZIPR Missed, but the Long Term Thesis Remains Intact
Affordability Still Matters, VOLUMES in the Housing Market have Bottomed, In Search of a Forgotten MicroCap
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Retail
(5)
Channel Checks With Independent Jewelers Indicate Trends Might Not Be As Bad as the Zales November Comp Would Have You Believe
Signet Jewelers (SIG) Remains the Best Investment Vehicle in the Specialty Jewelery Space
Are Polished Diamond Prices About to Increase?
A Closer Look at Blue Nile’s Promotion Strategy and the Company’s Operating Margin Conundrum – The Fundamental Short Thesis
A Pair Trade with Some Sparkle – Long Signet Jewelers/Short Blue Nile
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Energy
(3)
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Natural Gas
(3)
Causality in the Natural Gas Pit – How the UNG Works in Theory (And Why it Doesn’t)
Revisiting Our Mean Reversion Pair Trade from the Energy Pit – Long Natural Gas/Short Crude Oil: We Still Like It
A Mean Reversion Pair Trade From the Energy Pit: Long Natural Gas/Short Crude Oil
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Finance
(4)
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Brokers
(4)
Closing Out Thomas Weisel Partners Group (TWPG) Long Idea With 44% Gain
Traditional Capital Markets Activity Continues Its Recovery, TWPG Remains Well Positioned to Benefit
Deal Activity, Recovery in Venture Capital, and Insider Buying All Suggest Better Times Ahead for TWPG
Getting Back to the Basics in the Capital Markets – Long TWPG
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Industrials
(20)
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Lighting and Electrical Equipment
(4)
AYI: 3Q10 Consensus Revenue Expectations Look Reasonable, Expect EPS Upside in the Form of Continued Gross Margin Expansion
Can AYI's 2Q10 Results Justify the Run-up in the Stock? What Channel Feedback Tells Us - Closing Out Our Long AYI/Short HUBB Pair Trade, Going Long AYI
Our Expectations for AYI’s 1Q10 Results, the Company Has Plenty of “Dry Powder” Heading Into 2010
Shedding Some “Light” On a New Pair Trade Idea: Long Acuity Brands (AYI)/Short Hubbell Inc. (HUBB)
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Office Furniture Manufacturer
(7)
MLHR Misses (Again), Even With Acceleration in Order Activity Consensus For FY11 Needs to Come Down
MLHR: The Theme In the Office Furniture Market Appears to be Stagnation More than Acceleration
MLHR Misses, Street Estimates for FY10 and FY11 Still Look TOO High
In the Office Furniture Market the Second Derivative Is Improving, but Maybe Not Quickly Enough – Closing Out Our Pair Trade Long MLHR/Short HNI, Adding MLHR as a Short Idea Into Earnings This Week
The State of the Office Furniture Market – Still Recommending Long MLHR/Short HNI
Our Long MLHR/Short HNI Has Gone From a Catalyst Driven Trade to a Relative Value Trade, but We Still Like it
Generating Returns in an Industry in a Deep Freeze – Long Herman Miller Inc. (MLHR)/Short HNI Corporation (HNI)
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Outdoor Power Equipment
(11)
TTC: Large 3Q10 Beat As Expected, Guides Inline, Headwinds Should Start to Emerge in FY11, Still Favor Long BGG/Short TTC
BGG: Replacement Driven Demand, Monster FCF Highlight Strong 4Q10, Still Favor Long BGG, Short TTC
Closing out BGG and TTC Shorts with 21.2% and 7.3% Gains, Going Long BGG Against Short Position in TTC
TTC: 2Q10 Upside More than Overshadowed by Threat of Slowdown in the US, Golf and European Headwinds
BGG: Crushes 3Q10 EPS Expectations, but Guides Lower - Four Reasons Why We Think The Stock Can Still See Downside
Time to Grab the "Bull" by the Horns, Getting Short TTC and BGG
A View From Outdoor Power Equipment Dealers – Waiting on Weather…
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update, Closing Out BGG Short Trade Idea with a 7.4% Gain
It’s Still Too Early for BGG, Getting Short Into Earnings as a Trading Call
Briggs and Stratton’s (BGG) 3Q09 – The “Holy Trinity” for Shorts? A Miss, Reduced Guidance and a Reduced Dividend
One for You Traders Out There: Short BGG Into Earnings (this Thursday)
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Materials
(21)
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Sugar
(21)
IPSU: Adjusting Earnings to Reflect Slower Production Gains at Port Wentworth
Quick Thoughts on IPSU's 3Q10 Results
The "New Normal" in the US Sugar Market, Dialing in on IPSU's 3Q10, 4Q10 and FY11 Earnings
IPSU: Highlights from Conversations with IPSU Management - Progress at Port Wentworth
Latest WASDE Report Is Bullish For Sugar, Evaluating "Normalized" Earnings for IPSU
IPSU: A Difficult Quarter as Predicted Also Contains a Host of Silver Linings
IPSU - US Sugar Market Update, Revising FY10 Estimates, Evaluating IPSU's Potential Suitors
The Five Primary Questions We Asked IPSU Management
IPSU: Valuing Wholesome Sweeteners, Other Tidbits from the 10Q
Delays in Port Wentworth Ramp-up, Concerns About Raw Sugar Costs Don’t Change the Asset Value for IPSU
IPSU’s 1Q10 Results Should Illuminate Asset Value, $3.00+ Annual Earnings Power is Still on the Come
Sugar Remains “White Hot”
A Closer Look at Asset Value for IPSU – Plenty of Upside Remains
Dialing In On IPSU’s Cash Earnings Story for Calendar 2010
IPSU’s Upcoming 4Q09 Results, Key Sugar Market Developments
IPSU’s JV Deal Has Enormous Implications Competitively and from a Litigation Perspective
The Implications of IPSU’s Press Release About the “Whistleblower”’s OSHA Deposition
Can Litigation Risk at IPSU Be Boxed?
IPSU: Inching Closer to Unleashing Its Full Earnings Power
The US Sugar Market Explained and Answers to Some of Your Questions on IPSU
Heading Back to the Sugar Shack: Long Imperial Sugar Company (IPSU)
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Media
(23)
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Interactive Entertainment
(19)
THQI: The Waiting Has Been the Hardest Part, Finally Some Catalysts for THQI
Impressive CY11 Title Slate Should Overshadow UFC Disappointment
THQI: Strong Reviews, Expansion of Midnight Event at Gamestop Bode Well for Sell Through for UFC Undisputed 2010
THQI's 4Q10 Results and Guidance Come In as We Expected, CY11 Could Bring $1.2B+ Revs, $1.00+ EPS
THQI's Baseline Profitability Now Proven, the Focus Turns to Earnings and Cash Flow Growth for FY11 and FY12 - Just Beware of Consensus Views for 1Q11
One Week After Launch, Sell Through Indicators for Darksiders Suggest Potential Upside to Our Previous Estimates
Darksiders Looks to be Another Highly Rated, Internally Developed, Owned IP for THQI – Outlook For Shares Increasingly Compelling
More Consolidation in the Video Game Sector? Rumors Continue to Swirl Around THQI
Addressing the Most Pressing Questions From Our Readers About THQI Today
What to Expect for THQI’s 1Q10 Earnings Release; How Will Management Handle Guidance?
THQ, Inc. Finally Wins In Its Arbitration Suit with JAKKS Pacific – The Earnings and Cash Flow Implications; Extension of WWE License Through 2014 Should Follow
THQI: UFC Undisputed 2009 3MM Units Sold and Counting….
THQI: Nothing Wrong, Except the Technicals – The Catalysts for THQI Shares Now
Stepping into the “Sand-Box” with the Big Boys, Reviews for Red Faction: Guerilla Prove THQI Can Develop Industry-Defining Owned IP
It’s Official, UFC Undisputed 2009 is THQI’s Fastest Selling Video Game Ever
THQI: Gamestop Midnight Launch Party and High Ratings Suggest Strong Sell Through for UFC Undisputed
The Catalysts for THQI: UFC and More
Growing Buzz Surrounding UFC Undisputed Bodes Well for THQI
THQI:A Way to Play UFC and an Interesting Turnaround Story
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Newspapers
(3)
WPO: Barron's Strikes Again, A More Realistic SOTP Analysis, Tail Risk Growing Rapidly
WPO: 1Q10 Results Do Little To Change Our Short Thesis, Our Revised Estimates
Dear Mr. Buffet: About the Washington Post Company….
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PAA Research SMid-Cap Portfolio
(22)
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update - YTD Up 10.0%
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update - YTD Up 8.8%
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update - YTD Up 5.2%
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update - YTD Up 3.9%
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update - YTD up 8.9%
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update – YTD Gain of 8.7%
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update - YTD Gain of 13.8%
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update - YTD Gain of 12.6%
PAA Research SMId Cap Portfolio Update - 1Q10 Gain of 8.8%, Closing out Long SIG/Short NILE Pair Trade With a 35% Gain
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update – Closing out ZIPR Investment Idea with 77% Gain
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update, Closing Out BGG Short Trade Idea with a 7.4% Gain
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update
PAA Research SMID Cap Portfolio Update
PAA Research SMID Cap Portfolio Update
Introducing the PAA Research SMid-Cap Portfolio
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Strategy
(3)
A View from the Frontlines of Housing
The Devil in the Details: Two of Our Favorite Economic Indicators Leave Us Concerned About the Economic Recovery
In Case You Missed It: The Eleven Quotes that Matter from This Earnings Season
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Technology
(12)
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Internet
(12)
What We Wanted to Ask on the LOOP Earnings Call....
CSGP: Noisy Quarter Shouldn't Overshadow Acceleration in Core Business, Traction for Showcase.com
When the Castle Is Under Siege It Helps To Have a Wide Moat: Long CSGP/Short LOOP
Insider Selling at NILE Continues, Company Enters Settlement Discussions with Diascience Corp. (aka Yehuda Diamonds)
Channel Checks With Independent Jewelers Indicate Trends Might Not Be As Bad as the Zales November Comp Would Have You Believe
An Update on Blue Nile’s “Operating Margin Conundrum” and Thoughts on Upcoming 3Q09 Results
The Blue Nile/Diascience Corp. (Yehuda Diamonds) Legal Battle Heats Up
Signet Jewelers (SIG) Remains the Best Investment Vehicle in the Specialty Jewelery Space
Are Polished Diamond Prices About to Increase?
A Closer Look at Blue Nile’s Promotion Strategy and the Company’s Operating Margin Conundrum – The Fundamental Short Thesis
Taking a Closer Look at Citi’s Blue Nile Upgrade and An Update on the Diascience Corp. Lawsuit
A Pair Trade with Some Sparkle – Long Signet Jewelers/Short Blue Nile
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Software
(2)
CSGP: Noisy Quarter Shouldn't Overshadow Acceleration in Core Business, Traction for Showcase.com
When the Castle Is Under Siege It Helps To Have a Wide Moat: Long CSGP/Short LOOP
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Uncategorized
(1)
Just When We Thought BCO's Days of "Death by 1000 Cuts" Were Over... Still the Results Were Not as Bad as the Headline Numbers Suggest
Tickers
ARP
AYI
BCO
BGG
COCO
CSGP
ESI
GCA
HNI
HUBB
HURN
IPSU
KNOT
LOOP
MLHR
NILE
RGR
SIG
SWHC
THQI
TTC
TWPG
WPO
ZIPR
The Library
THQI: The Waiting Has Been the Hardest Part, Finally Some Catalysts for THQI
Posted August 31st, 2010
WPO: Barron’s Strikes Again, A More Realistic SOTP Analysis, Tail Risk Growing Rapidly
Posted August 23rd, 2010
COCO Runs Itself Into Regulatory “Maelstrom”, Expect Full Year Operating Losses for the Next Several Years
Posted August 20th, 2010
TTC: Large 3Q10 Beat As Expected, Guides Inline, Headwinds Should Start to Emerge in FY11, Still Favor Long BGG/Short TTC
Posted August 19th, 2010
PAA Research SMid Cap Portfolio Update – YTD Up 10.0%
Posted August 17th, 2010
We Thought the Repayment Rate Data Would Be Bad, It Was Worse – After “Black Monday” What Will Be the Lingering Questions in the For-Profit Education Sector
Posted August 16th, 2010
BGG: Replacement Driven Demand, Monster FCF Highlight Strong 4Q10, Still Favor Long BGG, Short TTC
Posted August 12th, 2010
IPSU: Adjusting Earnings to Reflect Slower Production Gains at Port Wentworth
Posted August 9th, 2010
WPO: 2Q10 Earnings Release Is a “Wake Up Call” to Investors, Yields More Questions than Answers
Posted August 6th, 2010
Quick Thoughts on IPSU’s 3Q10 Results
Posted August 6th, 2010
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Most Popular Reports
IPSU - US Sugar Market Update, Revising FY10 Estimates, Evaluating IPSU's Potential Suitors
We Thought the Repayment Rate Data Would Be Bad, It Was Worse - After "Black Monday" What Will Be the Lingering Question.....
A "Must Read" Report for Any Investor in the For-Profit Education Sector Heading Into 1Q10 Earnings Season
MLHR: The Theme In the Office Furniture Market Appears to be Stagnation More than Acceleration
Can AYI's 2Q10 Results Justify the Run-up in the Stock? What Channel Feedback Tells Us - Closing Out Our Long AYI/Short .....
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